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A Handful Of Housing Horrors!

Cliff D'Arcy

By

Cliff D'Arcy

From the Fool blog

How To Bag A Bargain This Christmas

Published in Property & Home on 19 June 2008

When things get tough in the housing market, homeowners should worry about these five shocks.

In his annual Mansion House speech on Wednesday night, the governor of the Bank of England warned that the UK faces a few tough years ahead.

Mervyn King said that Britain is facing its ‘most difficult economic challenge for two decades’, thanks to falling growth and the steeply rising cost of living. In some cases, household finances will be stretched to the limit, thanks to modest pay rises being gobbled up by soaring food and energy bills.

Furthermore, as the housing market begins to slide, things look particularly shaky for homeowners. Mr King admitted that the era of cheap mortgages is over, so homeowners should be prepared for higher mortgage interest rates. Thus, what should homeowners watch out for as the housing market and the UK economy enter choppy waters?

1.    Laughable help for mortgage-payers

During the last housing crash, Income Support For Mortgage Interest (ISMI) kept the wolf from the door for hundreds of thousands of homeowners. ISMI is a state benefit paid to homeowners who are unable to keep up their mortgage repayments, often due to illness or unemployment. However, the cost of providing this support to homeowners became a burden, exceeding £1 billion in 1994/95.

Hence, as I warned in Big Holes In The Housing Safety-Net , the government slashed this benefit in October 1995. These days, out-of-work homeowners have to wait nine months (39 weeks) before receiving any government help with their mortgage repayments. What’s more, support is limited to paying only interest on the first £100,000 borrowed, leaving most homeowners facing a shortfall. So, if unemployment starts to rise, mortgage arrears will quickly follow suit.

2.    Negative equity

Negative equity arises when a mortgage is larger than the value of a property on which it is secured. For example, a property worth £180,000 with a £200,000 home loan has negative equity of £20,000. Of course, if a property is worth less than the loans secured on it, then selling up will not clear the outstanding debts.

In other words, negative equity leaves you stuck in a property until you can reduce this overhang (or hand in your keys, only to be pursued later down the line). According to investment bank Lehman Brothers, if house prices were to fall by a quarter from the peak, around two million households would be in negative equity. With 11.8 million outstanding mortgages, a price plunge on this scale would give one in six homeowners a headache.

3.    Repossessions

In the early Nineties, mortgage arrears and repossessions kept me very busy in a professional capacity. As more and more homeowners found themselves unable to keep up their monthly repayments, I found myself working overtime most evenings and weekends in order to keep up with a backlog of insurance claims.

Alas, as I warned in Your Home Is At Risk, the number of homes being seized by lenders is rising steeply. Mortgage repossessions peaked at 75,540 in 1991, before falling almost every year to a low of just 6,030 in 2004. However, over the past four years, repossessions have bounced back and are expected to exceed 45,000 this year. In other words, 110,000 people can expect to be turfed out of their homes in 2008. For these unfortunate few, owning a home has proved disastrous.

4.    Higher mortgage rates

The governor of the Bank of England has stated that the Bank will take ‘whatever action is needed’ in order to return inflation to the government’s target. At present, the Bank or raises or lowers its base rate in order to keep the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure of inflation to within 1% either side of the CPI target of 3%.

Unfortunately, thanks to steep rises in the cost of food, fuel and commodities, CPI inflation hit 3.3% last month, its highest level since 1992. This breach of the 3% upper limit forced the governor to write a letter of explanation to the Chancellor, Alistair Darling. What’s more, it seems likely that inflation will exceed 4% fairly soon, which effectively rules out any further cuts to the base rate in 2008.

In addition, the ongoing credit crunch (the reluctance of banks to lend to individuals and each other) has pushed up mortgage interest rates. Indeed, Fool partner Moneyfacts this week warned that the cost of two-year fixed-rate mortgages is now at a ten-year high. Ouch!

5.    Falling disposable incomes

Finally, household incomes are being hit by a triple whammy of rising inflation, higher taxes and lower pay rises. These combine to put the squeeze on household budgets, pushing down disposable incomes.

According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the average disposable income rose by 0.3% in 2006 and a further 0.9% in 2007 in ‘real’ terms (after accounting for inflation). However, given the rising cost of food, fuel, gas and electricity, together with low pat rises, average take-home pay is likely to stagnate or fall this year.

So, in summary, after enjoying a NICE (non-inflationary, constantly expanding) decade, we should now brace ourselves for tougher times to come. Who knows, as borrowing falls out of favour, perhaps the ancient art of saving is poised to make a comeback? I certainly hope so!

More: Find a marvellous mortgage via the Fool | UK Property Crash Is Under Way | The Ups And Downs Of Renting

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Comments

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msmoneywise2102 20 Jun 2008, 6:27am

It would be such a help to borrowers if the Government brought back MIRAS relief. Even if they limited it to the first £1,00,000 of a mortgage, that would mean that people on lower incomes whose mortgages are smaller because they cannot afford big homes would benefit. The tax relief could also be linked to income, making it a fairer deal for all.
But the Government is not interested in helping the average man or woman who works hard and barely manages to keep afloat, as the abolition of the 10p band showed very clearly. We live in troubling and callous times. Heaven help us!

MinniesMum 20 Jun 2008, 7:07am

Sadly, tax relief on mortgages was one of the things that got us poor Brits into such a mess because it fuelled house price inflation.

We would all have been much better off if MIRAS had never existed.

middleagespread 20 Jun 2008, 8:11am

Sadly this situation reverberates of the 90s housing crash, preceeded firstly by escalating interest rates then falling ones which effectively knocked out all sectors of the spending public, creating the protacted recession which is still fresh in my memory, and many of my friends and relatives.
Be absolutely sure that the government saw this coming.
We have an accountant in charge of this country- which strikes me as very odd as i wouldn't let either an accountant or bank manager run a business as they simply don't have the skills necessary- and this accountant is surrounded by (extremely well paid) advisors, so please don't tell me that they didn't see this coming.
The situation of negative equity, hand in hand with the rapid rise in the cost of living and the very real threat of lay offs (as is happening in my household), and the madness of this government in failing to cap
energy suppliers in their mission to empty the bank accounts and gobble up all the salaries of all who live in this country.
It's an outrage!!!
And surely we must soon, as a country, stand up and be heard and tell those, who are abusing the trust we put in them at the last election, that the day has come to get a strong leader in place, who looks at the larger picture, not just the bottom line, which Mr Brown is unable to do, along with his very weak governement ministers who are only interested in their jobs and fattening thier salaries.
As ever this governement are insisting that this situation created by matters beyond their control.
Codswallop!
Start by capping the greedy energy suppliers- the billions of pounds profit are still ringing in my ears. A large chunk of those profits will be handed out in bonuses to the fat cats, and not reinvested- as i don't notice too many improvements to our supplies.
Wake up ministers and start acting now, before the whole economy collapses!

bimber 20 Jun 2008, 8:13am

MIRAS would be a stupid idea, redistributing wealth from, for example, those who live within their means and have paid off their mortgage to those with highly leveraged assets in a falling market (ie the sensible to the foolish).

If we want government intervention to help out the housing crisis (ie, prices are too high) then we should ask them to cap the price of houses at £100,000, to make them more affordable for all. People who paid more than this don't need to worry because a home is "not an investment" and they paid a price they could afford, irrespective of whether the market might crash or not. That's what I've learned from Neil Faulner on this site.

peepobaby 20 Jun 2008, 8:37am

MIRAS would be something particularly bad to introduce since it would be a tax cut for the rich. Why should people you cannot afford to buy a house be penalised by the tax system? Buying a house does not actually contribute to growing economic wealth so should not be rewarded through a tax system.

I think the unfortunate thing is that people have paid more than they could afford for houses and this debt simply won't go away quickly. Everyone always thought it would be easy to remortgage. Everyone thought that rates would stay low - now we realise that mortgage rates are not connected to base rate! Everyone thought that houses prices would keep on rising for ever. People in the UK did not consider the possibility that house prices would fall. And as much of the articles on Fool state, this doesn't matter if you can pay the mortgage!

Iniq 20 Jun 2008, 8:45am

Simple solution:
The house price bubble was fuelled by improvident lending.
Make it much harder for lenders to reposess and sell homes in future, and they would stop over-lending. People who cannot save at least 10% (preferably 25%) deposit should not expect to get a mortgage.
You cannot blame vulnerable people for over-borrowing if the money is offered cheaply, but you CAN blame unscupulous lenders for making inappropriate loans to people who clearly cannot afford them.

At present such lenders can be afford to be irresponsible, since it is so easy for them to reposess.

sjw101 20 Jun 2008, 8:55am

Bimber - Your suggestion is ridiculous - I cant believe you even said it. Which house would you buy then an absolutely gorgeous mansion/pent house flat or a little terraced house on the outskirts of a city. Pathetic suggestion, nearly everyone in the country could afford the £100,000 price tag of a luxury home!!!!

magicblonde 20 Jun 2008, 9:20am

Thanks for this nice article giving people more to worry about, I guess a lot of people need this, trust Fool to provide it (& especially Cliff who, I believe, lost a lot of money selling his property at "the peak of the market" a few years ago).
I notice that repossessions are, he states, set to exceed 45,000 this year but in 1991 they reached 75,540 - a long way short then. Of course many of these are now BTL investors (most, actually) rather than home owners. Yes, it's still a blow for them but not like losing your own home as was the situation in the early 1990s.
What isn't mentioned at all in this article is where everyone's meant to live if they lose their home.... oh, probably in BTL properties, so what a good time to invest in these (as I do and am continuing to do), especially with the reduction in new building. Another housing shortage will result - what will be the effect of this on prices.
The other thing missing from this article is any mention of the fact that if prices drop, isn't this what some people have been wanting to happen for ages, on the assumption that all the first time buyers will suddenly be able to buy? Let's see if that's the effect, shall we?

wantmoremoneytoo 20 Jun 2008, 9:23am

I tought the reason for the comment section at the end of an article was to do just that comment on the article not slate other peoples opinions. come on people sort yourselves out

dneale123 20 Jun 2008, 9:33am

Realistically, all the government can do to mitigate the current situation is to keep injecting liquidity into the market as far as it can. Hopefully the effect of raising interest rates would be carefully considered by the MPC before it decides to go in that direction, too. Because the UK's higher inflation is almost entirely caused by external factors such as oil prices, it seems unlikely that an increase in interest rates would have any significant effect on inflation, so any upward move of interest rates might not be viewed as a sound economic decision, and in any case spiralling interest rates will increase the chance of a real recession occurring in the UK.

As for the effect of the credit crunch on our borrowing habits...well, perhaps borrowers will look more carefully at the long term interest rate they will be paying on their mortgages. Maybe my decision 6 years ago to go for a lifetime tracker rather than get a low rate fix followed by a struggle to remortgage or years of repenting at leisure at the SVR or wasn't so foolish after all.

Zweiblumen 20 Jun 2008, 9:42am

Middle Age Spread, I simply cannot let your slur on accountants pass unanswered.

Firstly, Gordon Brown is not an accountant, he is a Doctor of History!

Secondly, if you wouldn't let an accountant run a business, more fool you - even accountants in public practice run their own business very well on the whole. On the other hand, accountants in industry, like myself, very often progress to senior executive positions, indeed a third of FTSE-100 CEOs are accountants.

Simply don't have the skills necessary, indeed!

ggpessimist 20 Jun 2008, 9:52am

Negative equity.
Dont panic. Do not hand back keys etc unless you are jobless and broke. Your lendr will probably not take any action unless you stop making repayments & even then many lenders would rather have interest only or reduced repayments than reposess. Talk to them, talk to Citizens Advice or professionals, not to your mates in the pub. Dont take all MF advice as gospel.Good luck

downaswellasup 20 Jun 2008, 10:01am

middleagespread, you say "we have an accountant in charge of the country". Can you please tell me the qualifications this "accountant" has?

I thought not. He is not an accountant at all is he?

As for your comment about not letting an accountant run a business ...??? A nice line in random, irrelevant, unsubstantiated mud slinging, but hardly a constructive comment on the housing market.

Getting back on topic, I don't see how MIRAS could possibly help. Yes it might bail a few people out in the short term but that would just serve to artificially prop up house prices (like reducing interest rates in 2005 at the first sign of a wobble) and delay the problem.

The bad news is bubbles burst eventually. Yes some people will get hurt but most of the pain will be felt by the irresponsible borrowers and the irresponsible lenders. Interest rates have been historically low for years, fuelling rising house prices. If people have forgotten this then the economy/society needs this lesson.

downaswellasup 20 Jun 2008, 10:03am

ah Zweiblumen just realised you beat me to it.

broonbiker 20 Jun 2008, 10:15am

Reintroducing MIRAS is not the answer. There is no economic justifcation for giving people tax relief to buy homes. As has been mentioned already, it just leads to house price inflation, not more affordable homes. The lenders need to be more flexible with borrowers struggling to meet repayments and negative equity is not a bad thing if you don't intend to or have to sell your home. The laws of economics suggest it will move into the positive eventually, or else the loan will be paid off with inflated earnings, whichever comes sooner.

jmac2 20 Jun 2008, 10:52am

I note the comments that repossessions are not as high as the early 1990s (yet). However, I work as a property lawyer, and one thing which the media hasn't really focused in on yet is the fact of the large number of properties being sold at undervalue under schemes where the property is then rented back to the previous owners. I recently worked for a firm who were doing over 100 of these each week (just in one city). On the surface no "For Sale" signs appear outside , etc, and things look unchanged, but an awful lot of homes are changing hands in this way. If these were taken into the equation the figures would look substantially higher. I believe from the debt I see clients in that matters are even worse that is at present being reported in the media and that we have a very rocky ride ahead

jegwe 20 Jun 2008, 10:53am

The whole point of the Government giving the Bank of England control over interest rates was so that changes made by them would be reflected throughout the economy thus giving the BoE power to control inflation. If lenders are not reflecting those changes in the rates charged to borrowers, then this tool has been blunted, leaving the BoE powerless to use interest rates to control inflation.
It is essential that the Government acts to force changes in interest rates to be passed on, otherwise the power to control the economy has been allowed to pass to companies which have interest in nothing except their own short term profits. This means that nobody will be controlling inflation.
As for repossesions, lenders should not be allowed to reposess a property in advance of the new owner moving in (exactly as with any normal house sale) and should be made responsible for rehousing those who are displaced. Furthermore, they should not be allowed to reposess without a court order and the court should be required to take into account the needs of children to take exams or finish their education before setting a date for eviction to be granted, also the needs of any elderly or disabled people who might be living in the house. The lenders might only be interested in their own profits, but the court should take account of the cost to wider society and to innocent individuals of picking up the tab.
This would go some way to protecting those who have genuinely been unfortunate and have fallen into inforseeable difficulties and would force the lenders to take some responsibility for the consequences of irresponsibe lending in cases where this has been the root cause of the problems.

dcardale 20 Jun 2008, 11:08am

Mortgages will only become more readily available if on the other side savers save more. Even the best building society interest rates leave savers after both inflation and tax with a negative return (i.e. losing money!) so what fool will be tempted to save? The obvious remedy is to charge tax only on the real return if at all (after all the savings were made NET of tax in the first place).

gartons 20 Jun 2008, 11:09am

Why should someone struggling to make mortgage repayments be bailed out if they are in employment?
Either they were very naive when they took on the mortgage or they were stupid enough to think that house prices would always defy gravity.
In either case, like most Brits, they were living beyond their means and now the chickens have come home to roost expect to be bailed out which is not the way of the real world.
A few years of reality should bring them to their senses!

goldpaw 20 Jun 2008, 11:20am

Why is negative equity (n.e.) such a problem? As long as a homeowner can pay the mortgage and associated costs there is no problem. I absolutely guarantee that we will all look back in 7 to 10 years time and the 'problem' will have gone away.

The only problem with n.e. arises if the homeowner needs to sell their home. The answer to that is don't sell; and don't make decisions that put you in a situation where you need to sell. If homeowners look further than the end of their noses they will realise that.

Do estate agents 'For Sale' boards need to have the tagline 'property values can go down as well as up' for people to realise this?

I am certainly no fan of Gordon Brown's economic skill, but it really is quite ridiculous to blame him for this one

.

AdrianStannard 20 Jun 2008, 11:42am

Interesting article. What amazes me is the poor maths skills of so called experts and pundits over the past 6 months, who argue that "the situation is nothing like the early 90's because interests were much higher then, at 15%". Yes, that may be so, but anybody who bought a house in the last five years is paying at least 3 times as much for a house on average. Whats 15% of £100,000? Whats 5% of £300,000? People's repayments are more or less the same (gains in salary are negated by ever higher living costs). Furthermore, because of the high value of mortgages, people are now 3-4 times more sensitive to interest changes than in the 90's - a 0.5% increase now is equivalent to a 1.5% - 2% then. It is a good job King recognised this week that raising interest rates will not curtail the current inflationary trend.

AdrianStannard 20 Jun 2008, 11:55am

goldpaw raises an interesting question about why is N.E. bad, yes, its correct that for as long as you can afford the repayments, theres nothing to worry about.

The problem comes when people come out of a fixed rate mortgage term and want to apply for another mortgage term. Lenders are not willing to take on high risk borrowers (N. E. is seen as high risk), so people in N.E. will have a hard time shopping round for the next fixed rate (or even tracker) product. Usually they can only get higher interest mortgage products, so eventually affordability will become a major issue.

It might seem bizarre that lenders charge higher interest rates to new N.E. borrowers, since it increases the risk of them defaulting on payments, therefore more likely to be ending up trying to recoup costs through an auction. But there, if there was any logic in the financial markets, we wouldn't be in this mess in the first place. It all went wrong when people started associating something essential for living, a home, with the word "investment".

ggpessimist 20 Jun 2008, 11:57am

dcardale misses the point that most of the current credit crunch problems have arisen because building societies no longer just lend what others save. They have borrowed in the international capital markets: when those dry: no money to lend: Northern Rock particularly relied on this model so collapsed. If we could go basck to the oild days where lending=saving there would be much less excess credit,less house proce inflation & less boom-bust.

AdrianStannard 20 Jun 2008, 12:08pm

downaswellasup is totally right - it will be painful for young homeowners, but you cannot subsidise the housing market when people run into difficulty - the market must adjust to find the real value of property (note that a lot of unscrupulous developers recorded higher values of houses sold with the land registry than they got in reality, in order to push the market up). Prominent economists have warned for the last 4-5 years that the housing market was becoming a bubble - just like the tech stocks of 2000, but were ignored. Sadly this brings us to a grim conclusion: over-bullish investors seldom learn, they create bubbles wherever they tread, many piled cash into 'the only way is up' property after getting fingers burnt in the dotcom crash. Now they're piling it into oil options.

Strebor19 20 Jun 2008, 12:32pm

For those that say the re-introduction of MIRAS would be a bad thing, I would disagree. What this would do is give the Government a tool to target financial help directly at the people who need it. i.e. those with the biggest Mortgage's are normally the young with Family's and the most vulnerable when the economy is going through a turbulent time. So now when the Mortgage company's will not pass on the BoE interest rate cuts as over the last few months, the Government could increase the tax allowance (say 10%) on say the first £100000 of the Mortgage interest calculated at BoE rates, this would give a fixed rebate easily calculated. It would only be given to those households with incomes below the 40% tax band so high earning household do no benefit. As for those that comment it would fuel house inflation, I don't think so, as obviously you could only claim this once and would not apply to BTL investors. Also once the economy is stable again it could slowly be reduced to a nominal 5%. What this would do is give the Government a means to help the most vulnerable families when the country goes through these cycles. A roof over your head is a fundamental right, and people being evicted from there homes because they did not have the foresight to see oil prices doubling in 12 months is wrong and just means the local council have to pick up the pieces which of course costs the tax payer in the end anyway.

Lehmanpleb 20 Jun 2008, 12:39pm

I'm concerned that everyone feels that lenders are more willing to repossess then to help the borrowers. This is not the case as lenders do earn more money if a mortgage is paid successfully then if they repossess.

Likewise, we are all aware that when taking on a mortgage if you don't pay it then your home may be repossessed - why do borrowers feel that this is an empty threat? If you don't pay the finance on your car that will be taken back, so why not with your home?

Borrowers need to realise that when they sign for mortgages or secured loans they need to READ the full agreement as they are signing for all the terms and conditions, not just the ones that benefit them.

And in response to Jegwe's comments on repossession - in all parts of the UK (Law's are different depending on where you live) you can't repossess without a court order and it is up to the judge at the county court local to the property whether or not the repossession goes ahead or is delayed. The judges do also take into consideration if there is a buyer in place and may adjourn the hearing to allow for the sale to complete - this decision cannot be made by the lender alone. These Judge's can also rule and arrangement onto the account for the borrower to pay their arrears back over and extended period of time - if the borrower then doesn't do this the lender goes back to court for an eviction date. The lenders will do anything they can to help the borrower, but some borrowers can't see that they have these opportunities and blame someone else for their downfall as it's easier then realising that it is their own mistake.

Also why should the lender be responsible for rehoming the evictee? They were fully aware that repossession was a possibility if they didn't keep to their end of the mortgage.

chasbmw 20 Jun 2008, 12:44pm

The effect of MIRAS ias to subsidise existing house values as all it does is to enable the first time buyer to pay more for their new house. Much better to enable Firsttime buyers to afford a house by letting house values fall to a sustainable level. We have all been living in a house price bubble for the last 5 years or so, pricking of this bubble will be painful.

Charles

Insipiens 20 Jun 2008, 12:47pm

There is no solution other than the markets usual punishment of excess. Oh, and saving of course.

Mumfordian 20 Jun 2008, 12:52pm

Why should the Government (aka taxpayer) subsidise, via MIRAS, borrowers who face difficulty when there are insurance products available to cover mortgage repayments in the event of Accident, Sickness and Unemployment? Furthermore, anyone who has borrowed so much money that they can't cope with interest rates 2- 3% higher than 2 years ago really shouldn't be subsidised: the message it sends out is 'borrow what you like and fear no consequence'. Interest rates go up and down and the housing market (like the econonomy) is cyclical.

DizzyLizzy33 20 Jun 2008, 12:53pm

If the Government raised the £250,000 tax up to £300,000 that would kick-start the market, thus allowing "first time buyers" more of a market without having to give the Government £5000 (stealth) tax. Plus if the media hadnt whipped the housing and credit market up into a frenzy I dont think it would have had such an impact, and people would have just coped as usual!!

downaswellasup 20 Jun 2008, 1:02pm

DizzyLizzy33, I don't think the slowdown in the housing market has occoured because of first time buyers who would buy a property between £250k and £300k were it not for the stamp duty.

I think it is more that they cannot get a mortgage because of tighter lending criteria.
Or have got cold feet about the whole idea.

Graeham 20 Jun 2008, 1:15pm

iniq's point about making it harder to re-possess and sell on has already happened! That is precisly what the change in the market has done. Repossesed properties are difficult to sell on unless the price is dropped sharply. This why lenders are now are now prefering customers with substantial deposits to protect the lender from neg. equity and subsequent possible losses to themselves. Remeber lenders are commercial organisations and look after no. 1.

dcardales point about lending only what has been invested reminds me of when in the sixties when I was a house builder (and the usual deposit was 10%) I was approached by the manager of the local Woolwich branch to say that " If I found him investments, then he would give my customers mortgages to twice the value".
Perhaps this is the sort of deal the lenders need to get back to.
Graeham

Thrifty111 20 Jun 2008, 1:35pm

middleagedspread

"We have an accountant in charge of this country- which strikes me as very odd as i wouldn't let either an accountant or bank manager run a business as they simply don't have the skills necessary"

Conversely, and speaking as an accountant, there are people "running" (I use the term loosely) businesses who do not have the first idea of the responsibilities involved, and because they are always right, blithely ignore advice when it is given, only to suffer the consequences further down the line. They then blame their advisers!

Actually this sounds more like our beloved PM than your post!

Thrifty111 20 Jun 2008, 1:37pm

middleagedspread

also meant to say - the rest of your post is spot on. What we need is the silent majority to stop being silent AND START SHOUTING!!!

Ilovedoggies 20 Jun 2008, 2:45pm

There are a lot of very heartless comments here. We are dealing with people's lives, people's homes. Please look at this example story here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/jun/20/houseprices.mortgages
The state already does pay for people renting. What is a mortgage, if not a way of renting the property from the bank? Just as, if you die you debts die with you, if they exceed your assets, a borrower should not be persued for a debt that exceeds the value of its security. Ie negative equity cannot exist. Any debt in excess is written off. The banks must take the risk entirely themselves. The state could underwrite this. To avoid fraud, a lender could therefore object to an owner selling a property at less than the outstanding loan.
The answer MUST be to include housing costs in the inflation figures. So increasing interest rates will increase inflation. If house prices fall this will decrease inflation. I pay far more of my salary on mortgage costs than all other expenses combined. Therefore, mortgage payments must be given the highest weighting. I don't care how much pork increases by, I can turn vegetarian.
Also, if control of inflation is so important, then company law must be changed to reflect this. This would mean that, to operate legally, every company would have to accept that the government could introduce a price cap at any time on its product/service. The national interests of the economy must take priority over company profits.

DAQ80 20 Jun 2008, 3:04pm

There's more nonsense than you can point an economically illiterate stick at on this thread. Tax relief on mortgages lowers the effective rate of tax on middle and higher income borrowers at the expense of low income borrowers. It is fundamentally inequitable and hence shouldn't even be considered. Similarly providing a prop now to an overvalued market will delay and prolong the suffering of price falls rather than prevent them altogether. If houses are overvalued then let them fall rather than try to prolong the agony by subsidising those that bought what they couldn't afford.

The next debate about forcing banks to pass on interest rate cuts is also complete nonsense. In actual fact the fact that LIBOR and mortgage rates had moved to being exactly in line is the exception here. It has never been the case that lenders' variable rate has moved in line exactly with base rates - in fact it's been more true over the last 5 years than any previous time in history. It doesn't blunt the impact of interest rate rises which will restrict speculative corporate investment and still drastically impact on mortgage lending given that this sets the base on top of which rates are calculated by banks at which they can lend profitably

Thirdly, how on earth do people believe that preventing banks from repossessing properties in arrears is going to help?!? As a lender (ie a bank), how keen would you be to lend in the current environment if you are to be prevented from getting the money lent back. If you think this is a credit crunch, try this sort of insane legislation and see if anyone is left lending at all!

Finally, stamp duty is a complete irrelevance in all this discussion. It ought to be set up like income tax to prevent the distortions you get of properties clustering at £125, £250k and £500k, but the impact of raising a tax band by £50k is laughably neglible in the scheme of things. Given that the tax change would equate to under 2% of the value of a house, it is ridiculous to believe that the market itself could be stimulated by minor tax changes.

SelfDoIt 20 Jun 2008, 3:20pm

I don't feel very sorry for the repossessed in many cases. Yes, it is very stressful, but it is people borrowing beyond their means that have caused the housing bubble. Taking a mortgage with salary multiples of more than 3 or 4 times is irresponsible as is spending more than 40% of one's take home pay on housing.

I'd love to live in a 'reasonable' flat, I can't even afford a place that has a bathtub, so I don't feel sorry for people who borrowed more than they could afford so that they could live in a 'decent' house. They've been driving up the prices that are keeping the rest of us out of the market.

Please don't make those of us who are sensible and choose to live in small properties that we can afford, subsidise those who made poor choices and bought houses that they couldn't afford.

minimumwager 20 Jun 2008, 3:51pm

Hi! I don't have any in depth knowledge of the mortgage or financial world, so what I say may be totally incorrect, so here goes! I bought a house some years ago when prices were low, I could have afforded a larger propert, but did not feel comfortable taking on a huge debt. I try to pay extra to my mortgage with a view to paying it off quicker than 25 years. I have just been given a tax rebate, and although I'm desparate for a nintendo wii, and havn't been abroard since I was 15. I'm sadly gonna put it all towards my mortgage. Boo. On another point, about MIRAS, which I gather is the Government helping out with your motgage payments, (I think.) I believed at first, if you get made redundant suddenly, perhaps the government could pay your morgage for a limited time, such as 3 months. Just giving you a bit of time to sort out your affairs, and keep the wolf from the door. But after reading a further contribution from a fellow Fool, who said it was our individual responsibility to have insurances to protect us, perhaps this is a good point. I suppose they are right. I don't have such insurance as it was very expensive with my mortgage provider. But maybe I will shop around for a cheaper one. But in todays economically uncertain times, will the price be too high for my stretched finances to afford?

downaswellasup 20 Jun 2008, 4:22pm

Ilovedoggies, sorry but you are way off the mark. Yes the story you have posted does highlight the human side of the economics so, lets look at it for a moment.

Maxine cannot afford to pay the interest payments on her mortgage each month. She also has a separate loan which she cannot repay. When taking into account the costs of selling her home (estate agent, solicitor, redemption fee) she finds herself with negative equity (effectively). Bankruptcy is looming.

Whilst this is very sad I fear that in trying to help what you are proposing will make matters worse.

If you seek to penalise lenders what effect do you think this will have? I think you will find that they will tighten their lending criteria and increase the risk-premium. Maxine will never get another fixed rate mortgage. House prices will be forced down (as others struggle). Maxine will need an even bigger lottery win to bail her out!

Whilst it is clear that you wish for this mess to sort itself out with out any pain, I'm afraid the only way we'll learn that housing isn't necessarily a "safe bet" (Maxine’s words not mine) is with said pain.

As for your idea’s on how to curb inflation ........ revolutionary! (as in the Che Guevara sense)

yannie55 20 Jun 2008, 4:55pm

Having read various Fool articles recently regarding the credit crunch and falling house prices I have come to the only conclusion I have come to the only viable conclusion (for me). I have to leave this country ASAP! Having spent the last year living and working in BC, Canada, I complained (like everyone else) about paying $1.13 a litre for petrol (Approx. 70p), the cost of gas and electricity et al. However, within weeks of my return to Scotland, I am faced with a more than 300% increase in my gas and electricity monthly budget payments (up from £60 to £184) and the incredible £54 it takes to fill my petrol tank. Thankfully, I have a fiar bit of equity in my home and that is where my funding will come from to leave this country never to return again! Yes, I had a pay rise during my year away, but nothing compared to the rise in the cost of living. I just cannot afford to live here any more, and so, God willing, I will be out of here before they add the promised extra 40% to my fuel bills. Goodbye Britain and good luck to you all.

kretinus 20 Jun 2008, 5:44pm

Ilovedoggies
You may think your debts die with you, please be assured they don't, you WILL be pursued beyond the grave, if your estate is capable of paying them....

alibali102 20 Jun 2008, 6:33pm

will the last one out of the uk please switch off the lights.....

middleagespread 20 Jun 2008, 6:44pm

I am writing this to apologise to all the good accountants that i slurred earlier- sorry.
I have had experience of some pretty dire advise from poor accountants and bank managers in my time, but must learn not to tar all with the same brush.
To all who face financial ruin under this government, and to all of us who face social immobility, take heart, you won't be the only one in your predicament, nor will you be the first.
It just beggars belief that we can be facing a repeat of the 90s and this government are still blaming the other party. Did they learn nothing? I have been informed the Mr Brown studied history, which actually compounds his stupidity.

DizzyLizzy33 20 Jun 2008, 7:00pm

Re: Alibali102 - Yes agreed - As with these exorbitant Gas/Elec bills the rest of us are left having to deal with.
Re:DAQ80 - Those of us at the "other end" of the property market would welcome the albeit small tax relief!!

SiGl26 20 Jun 2008, 8:08pm

middleagespread & dizzylizzy:

If 'the Government' caps energy costs, who's going to pay the difference between the capped price and the world market price? Contrary to what most people seem to think, the energy suppliers do not set the price, the price is what customers are willing to pay (and always is, whatever market you look at). The 'windfall' profits the energy suppliers are making now will have to be reinvested to secure future supplies.

BAT5 20 Jun 2008, 8:11pm

Tax relief on mortgages should be a right. People who buy their own properties take a burden away from the state for housing. If there was no state housing I could understand the argument for no tax relief but you can't have part of the population having subsidised housing while the rest pay for it - opps I forgot, this is The UK where middle UK is abandoned by parliment.

NpNp 20 Jun 2008, 8:25pm

I keep reading that a lot of the inflationary pressures are imported. Bear in mind we are bust, with 43% GDP debt and no gold, and interest rates too low, hence a weak pound. Germany has a 7% surplus. If they can do it so should we. They have something put by for a rainy day, and the heavens are about to open.
Still I'm waiting in the wings to buy a house cheap and it's all going the right way.
Expensive loans, poor wage packets, over taxed and a numpty gov't who couldn't run a p!ssup in a brewery.
And a numpty section of society who rushed out and bought houses at twice the price they're really worth to build. I hope the big builders go bust and building is bought back to a local level. More chance of getting back to quality housing.
I've been a keen member of www.housepricecrash.co.uk for some years now, and have learnt a great deal of the economics that effect house prices. It's a great place to learn. I sold my house on the back of this, and now dam'n glad I did.
More massive writedowns to come, 2 British banks to go pop, and a whole host of other stuff on the horizon.
It's going to get very rough. Forget house price percentage predictions. Prices are in meltdown, and will end up with very little value.
This has been a massive transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich, sort of a Robin Hood in reverse, all under the nose of King Midas in Reverse, the one and only, Gordy BoomBust-Brown. I thank you.

Kimmerblee 21 Jun 2008, 11:52am

I received an ezine from an independent financial "watcher" last July who predicted exactly what we are going through right now. Everything he thought would come to pass has and if his predicitions remain true to form we are only in the very early stages of a deep and lasting problem.

Anyone in a job would be well advised not to jump ship now unless you absolutely have to, reign in your spending BIG time and save as much as you can and hold onto the house by hook or by crook.

His most dire prediction was that house prices will fall to around 60% of their current value and maybe more before we out of this and I believe him. The writing is on the wall and the Government are going to do sod all to help us so we need to be super sensible for a long while yet.

I am keep ing my fingers crossed for all of us that he proves to be wrong in the long run but somehow I doubt it.

billyboy121 21 Jun 2008, 11:53am
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