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Fool News: House Prices Still Falling

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By Serena Cowdy | 28 April 2008

House prices fell the most in more than three years this month, the latest research indicates.

The average cost of a home in England and Wales dropped 0.6% in April (the most since December 2004), according to Hometrack.

Although there were some regional variations, prices fell in all ten of the regions Hometrack monitors. The biggest price drops were found in East Anglia and the West Midlands, with slides of 0.8%.

The research is the latest of several industry reports indicating that the housing market is grinding to a halt. HBOS recently reported a month-on-month price fall of 2.5% in March, and in April, the RICS house price balance dropped for the eighth month in a row.

And as the effects of the credit crunch are felt, many lenders have been quick to withdraw some of their most competitive mortgage offers.

Here at The Fool, David Kuo recently predicted that house prices would fall 20% this year, slashing the average price of a British home from £196,000 to £153,400.

Our financial expert is still standing by his prediction - which would mean average prices falling to spring 2004 levels.

So that means if you bought your house after spring 2004, you could be sitting on a capital loss by the end of the year, assuming that David's prediction is right. Of course, that needn't be a problem. Sooner or later house prices will pick up again, so the value of your home should still rise in the long-term.

And in the short-term, lower house prices could help more first-time buyers get on the ladder. What's more, even current home owners could find that a property slump has a silver lining.

As David Kuo says: "A 20% fall in house prices across the board will narrow the gap between the value of your home and a property further up the housing ladder. It will make up-sizing more affordable."

"Fool.co.uk urges the Government to stop meddling in the housing market, and allow property prices to find their own levels. In its attempts to help homeowners, it is killing with kindness. It is holding back a dynamic market that needs to fall as well as rise to move forward."

More: Five Top Two-Year Mortgage Deals | Why Homebuyers Can Afford To Be Patient

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Comments

The opinions expressed here are those of the individual writers and are not representative of The Motley Fool.

At 14:39 on April 28 2008, onlyroz said:

How can the average house price be both £173200 and £196000?

At 16:37 on April 28 2008, Yukimaru said:

The averages are boosted by the ridiculously inflated prices in the South. Oop North, at least round Manchester, there are plenty of lovely 3 bed semis for £130-£140k. It's hard to know what the real average is with the London prices screwing the figures.

At 20:39 on April 28 2008, Jbat001 said:

Ha! Nobody is willing to talk about house prices falling 50% or more because that would put so many people in negative equity that it would be a catastrophe.

And yet it certainly could happen, and might well do. If they fall 50%, every single BTL landlord and FTB since 2004 will be under water. I hope everyone is ready!

At 21:12 on April 28 2008, Drazenko said:

There is so much talk that house price in London is gone over the top in the last 5 – 10 years… but that is usually driven by the experts that don’t understand that price of the property is gone everywhere, read EVERYWHERE in Europe. An example is that in France, Greece, Poland, even Serbia, where property price is gone twice to three times more than in UK over the same period of time. Now, if we really see the property price going down 20%, especially 50% in UK than UK needs to be prepared to sell out the huge number of its properties to buyers from Europe – whose buying power will be then highly increased and they will definitely want to set their foot in UK landlords market!

At 09:41 on April 29 2008, ic266 said:

Prices in Germany have been in long term decline- last year about 5%. The Germans don't like debt after seeing all their wealth destroyed by hyper inflation followed by war.

In 1973, after a big oil price increase, prices dropped by approx 20%, but then recovered - thanks to inlation and mortgages in the late 70's at 13.5 %

Prices in Spain are currently going through the floor, with auction prices running at 25% of values obtained 2 years ago.

The great flood of N. Sea oil money is ebbing away. The easy money property boom that it funded is ebbing away as well, and the sound of stable doors being slammed is heard throughout the land

At 10:01 on April 29 2008, Sheymoose said:

ic266. Your comments about Germany are not correct. There are certainly parts of Germany where prices are still falling but many parts have rising prices and unlike other European countries, for logical reasons. For example Hamburg, Munich, Frankfurt and parts of Berlin.

At 10:13 on April 29 2008, Hardtruth said:

A real shake up and shake out, exactly what is needed and hallelujah for the free market, which as you say this meddling government would be well advised to leave alone. Pity we have to wait 2 years to meddle with them.

At 13:03 on April 29 2008, McLeodC said:

The whole of society benefits from more affordable housing - inflated prices result in overstretched buyers (and even renters) forced to pay every penny they can afford to keep a roof over their heads. Those pennies are not being saved towards pensions or anything else - storing up problems that will affect us all many years into the future.
A shame that things were allowed to get so bad before lenders finally realised the madness of all.

At 13:12 on April 29 2008, dylangmurphy said:

ic266 - not sure about the suggestion that Germans don't like debt due to their experiences with hyperinflation. Unexpected hyperinflation is fantastic for those in debt!

Getting back on topic I don't expect a big crash in nominal house prices. I think the much needed house price correction will take place through stagnating/slightly falling houses prices coupled with 4%-5% general price/wage inflation over the next few years. This will make houses significantly more affordable for FTBs and others.

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