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The Best And Worst Properties To Own

Cliff D'Arcy

By

Cliff D'Arcy

From the Fool blog

Fame And Fortune In The City

Published in Property and Home on 22 February 2008

Which properties increase in value most? Which fall furthest in a crash? We crunch the numbers to find out.

Recently, I've been crunching data from the Halifax House Price Index (HPI) in order to learn more about the latest housing boom and the previous crash. You'll find my results here, here, here and here.

In response to these articles, several readers asked which properties increase in value the most, and which fall behind. The Halifax HPI doesn't include data according to type of property, so I can't analyse flats, terraced, semi-detached and detached homes separately.

However, I can partially answer this question by looking at five different datasets, as follows:

(The following data are not seasonally adjusted; this makes little difference to the results.)

Halifax HPI data for UK, 1983 to 2007

1. All properties

High/Low

Average

price (£)

Change

Annualised

change (%)

Start: 1983

30,898

N/A

N/A

Peak: 1990

68,950

+123% in 7 years

12.2

Trough: 1995

61,666

-11% in 5 years

-2.2

Peak: 2007

196,478

+219% in 12 years

10.1

1983-2007

N/A

+536% in 24 years

8.0

So, over the past 24 years, house prices have risen by an average of 8% a year compounded. UK property values more than doubled between 1983 and 1990, before losing ground over the next five years. However, in the twelve years from 1995, they more than tripled. It's no wonder that so many people view property as a terrific investment!

2. New properties

High/Low

Average

price (£)

Change

Annualised

change (%)

Start: 1983

34,795

N/A

N/A

Peak: 1990

72,290

+108% in 7 years

11.0

Trough: 1993

67,856

-6% in 3 years

-2.1

Peak: 2007

191,372

+182% in 14 years

7.7

1983-2007

N/A

+450% in 24 years

7.4

As you can see, rise in value of new properties hasn't been as steep as properties in general. However, it's worth noting that the low for new properties came earlier (1993) and the ensuing boom lasted for fourteen years.

One reason why the value of new property hasn't risen as steeply is because many new properties are built during the boom times, when house-builders are most confident. This increases supply and, therefore, reins in price rises. Indeed, it seems that new-build flats are springing up everywhere I look these days. Also, over time, the new/old mix changes as ‘new' properties become part of the ‘old' housing stock on resale.

3. Existing properties

High/Low

Average

price (£)

Change

Annualised

change (%)

Start: 1983

30,350

N/A

N/A

Peak: 1989

68,732

+126% in 6 years

14.6

Trough: 1995

61,099

-11% in 6 years

-1.9

Peak: 2007

197,384

+223% in 12 years

10.3

1983-2007

N/A

+550% in 24 years

8.1

While new properties have underperformed the market as a whole, so existing properties must have outperformed it. The difference over the entire 24 years is quite pronounced: a 550% gain for existing properties, compared to 450% for new builds. Then again, a buyer is hardly like to remain in a new property over 24 years, given that most of us move several times in this timescale.

I can think of at least two reasons why old properties tend to beat new builds. The first is the ‘new-build premium' that buyers pay to obtain a brand-new home. The second is the artificial boost given to new-build values by the use of cashback and other upfront incentives. This market rigging goes a long way to explain why recent buyers of new-build properties are in for a shock when they have their properties valued further down the line!

We've looked at new versus old properties; now let's explore the relative success of first-time buyers and home-movers:

4. First-time buyers

High/Low

Average

price (£)

Change

Annualised

change (%)

Start: 1983

22,199

N/A

N/A

Peak: 1990

49,433

+123% in 7 years

12.1

Trough: 1995

45,341

-8% in 5 years

-1.7

Peak: 2007

148,398

+227% in 12 years

10.4

1983-2007

N/A

+568% in 24 years

8.2

As you'd expect, first-time buyers (FTBs) tend to buy starter properties, which are priced well below the average for all properties. Nevertheless, the average house price for FTBs has risen by 568% in the past 24 years, which outstrips the growth of the UK as a whole.

Thanks to soaring prices, today's FTBs are having to dig deeper than ever before, such as saving a substantial deposit and then borrowing up to six times their income. Frankly, if I were in this position today, I'd fear for my financial future!

5. Former owner-occupiers (home-movers)

High/Low

Average

price (£)

Change

Annualised

change (%)

Start: 1983

36,219

N/A

N/A

Peak: 1989

81,041

+124% in 6 years

14.4

Trough: 1995

72,738

-10% in 6 years

-1.8

Peak: 2007

219,595

+202% in 12 years

9.6

1983-2007

N/A

+506% in 24 years

7.8

Between 1983 and 2007, the value of a typical property bought by home-movers increased by 506%, compared to the 568% increase in FTB properties. One reason for this could be that FTBs tend to pay top prices during booms, because of their desperation to ‘get on the property ladder'.

On the other hand, home-movers usually have higher incomes and larger equity (the difference between a property's value and the mortgage outstanding on it). Thus, they may be more cautious and avoid over-paying -- perhaps because they are reaching up a rung on the property ladder, rather than starting out.

In summary, I wouldn't read too much into the above data. However, it is clearly the case that first-time buyers tend to take greater risks. Also, older properties tend to grow their value better than new-build homes. Thus, if I were a FTB buying a new-build property today, I'd be exceptionally worried!

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Comments

The opinions expressed here are those of the individual writers and are not representative of The Motley Fool. If you spot any comments that are unsuitable hit the flag to alert our moderators.

CAUTIOUSMAN 25 Feb 2008, 6:40am

Great collection of data but what is the . What are the figures corrected for inflation as measured by RPI ans CPI?????

slickfingers 25 Feb 2008, 7:25am

as someone who has followed property inadvertantly for a long while (and has practiced as an estate agent for a couple of years) the post code is definately the most important thing. in the same period of time a house in dagenham rose 2 times in value, whilst a house in chadwell heath rose three times. make of that what you will but there will always be snobbery regarding certain areas and i believe as such that they will never rise as much as the most sort after areas. however that's not to say you can't make money from a poor area that people are forced into on mass. due to demand i saw flats in south ockendon rise 2 and 1/2 times in value in the space of nine months. however at this time there was a mass exodus from the east end of london and a lot of investers looking for cheap property. consequently properties were selling so quick and prices rose ridicularly fast. unrealistically fast but that's the property game. getting your buying and selling times right is the art.

netsrik 25 Feb 2008, 8:15am

Raw prices may suggest older properties are a better investment, but this disregards the likely higher maintenance costs of older properties.

togolo 25 Feb 2008, 8:25am

I'd have thought the worst buys must include sea side and low lying, or storm ridden properties. I gather our island holiday home could be washed away by the next storm surge. Accordingly an ark must be the best home buy.

sidewaysthinker 25 Feb 2008, 9:03am

Surely the best property to own is one you want to live in? The rest is frosting on the cake.

Hovis747 25 Feb 2008, 9:09am

I moved to South East in 70s I bought my first House with a big Mortgage. My Friends who stayed in the Cotswolds and bought up old Cottages no body wanted back then had a small Mortgage and have done much better overall . I believe some expensive areas give poor return value.

LittleSmudge 25 Feb 2008, 10:32am

As slickfingers and hovis747 both hint at - the trick is to buy property in run down neighbourhoods which are just about to become really popular. New builds and renovations in the area by big builders can be a clue, but other than that it doesn't really matter if the property is new, old, detached, semi, terraced or a flat. Crystal ball anyone ?

superwomanl 25 Feb 2008, 10:58am

I purchased a house in Anfield, Liverpool in 2002. It was in the worst area imaginable. I paid £13,000 for this 4 bedroom 2 reception house. Everyone thought I was mad and I thought I was mad as well. Anfeild is now classified as a regeneration area, and I recently accepted an offer of £65,000 on it, which I did not think I could have got in a million years. I have seen a dramatic improvement in the area over the past one year.

pugwashtizzie 25 Feb 2008, 11:08am

The region (i.e. post code)a property is situated in has a very big influence on the long term rise of the value of a house. If the inhabitants of a region are affluent they tend to keep their properties in good order whilst in poorer areas the inhabitants have frequently not got sufficient means to maintain their properties and thus inevitably these areas become less desirable. What has not been analysed in this study is the increase in the cost of properties of high value(e.g. over, say, £750,000). I think such an analysis would show that their value has gone up much more than other properties and that in the current so called crisis their value is likely to reduce far less than houses of lower value.

Hitman101 25 Feb 2008, 11:49am

It seems that when it comes to property value, most people seem to forget that builders are in it to make as much money as possible. It should not be a suprise then that the new properties entering the market particularly over the last 5 years are built using the cheapest methods and materials, production line techniques, using sub-standard workmanship and haphazard planning, room sizes are shrinking progressively while the price of the overall property is rising. I would suggest that this is a major factor in the rise in the cost of properties, more than anything else. New houses are smaller than existing properties, have less land per plot, but are being sold at prices which push at the price ceiling. Then when someone looks at their house with a view to selling and comparing it to the market - is it any suprise that they would want a price, proportional to the size of these new properties. It is unfortunate that the build quality of new properties is frankly so poor, all it would take is one burst or leaking pipe to cause considerable damage to the plaster boards that line the walls as well as the ceilings and whole rooms have to be redone at considerable cost, or the roof that simply won't stay put, with individual tiles and large chunks of roof that blow off without much trouble. These days I would say that if you have money to spare you would probably be better investing in a self build project or an existing sturdy building. The former would allow you to develop and build a property to your own specifications and standards for a fraction of the cost of a new property by starting a company to manage the project and employing salaried staff rather than contractors to reduce the costs. I would like to see advise on how to approach such a project. I personally would like to see legislation changed when it comes to the sale of properties, new or old which requires the land and property to be described in detail including volumes in much the way that business premises are sold. Describing each rooms shape, fixed assets and measurements in metric and imperial. It would also be useful for houses to have a maintenance books, much like cars do which requires the owner to record any significant work done to the house. An owner who doesn't maintain a property should not expect to get a good price. This would allow anyone buying a property to get a better idea of the value of such a property, and be able to readily compare properties. I think it would become more obvious then who is being greedy and asking unreasonable prices.

edgeofreason 25 Feb 2008, 12:15pm

I think your analysis is flawed. Most purchasers of old properties will spend considerable amounts doing them up - new wiring, plumbing, kitchen, bathroom(s), maybe loft conversion or extension - which is completely ignored in your analysis but should be taken account of as part of the cost leading to the increase in value (or perhaps in the current market we should say leading to less of a reduction in value). I suspect the true comparison might show a different picture where the buyer of new got best value, but the buyer of old got to update the house to their own taste and was therefore happier. Anyone else got a view?

yocoxy 25 Feb 2008, 5:30pm

So, the Nationwide and Halifax reports are not as gloomy as Cliff would like to be reporting this month, so a change of tack with the conclusion that FTB's of new builds should be 'exceptionally worried'. Actually the Halifax reports that prices are exactly flat in January. No increase but also no reduction and an annual increase of 4.5%. Meanwhile over at the Nationwide they show a reduction of 0.1% in January and an annual increase of 4.2% One day Cliff will have something positive to say about property as an investment.. Probably not until prices crash and he's able to buy back the home he sold some years ago for the same relatively low price that he achieved. It was in 2004 that he first predicted a crash and started anally analyzing the numbers to support a decision that has (so far) only made his landlord rich. The buyer of his property is probably also very happy with the almost 35% increase in their investment. Property as an investment is not for everyone but advising people not to buy the home that they will live in and to pay rent over a lengthy period is (in my opinion) foolish in the extreme. Even if there is a property dip, in 25 years' time a FTB will be a mortgage free owner of a substantial asset. A renter will continue to rent for life. Of course you could gamble with your family's biggest asset and try to sell at the top and buy at the bottom but as Cliff has illustrated this is not easy to do and can be a very expensive mistake.. Trying to persuade others to avoid property won't put that right unless enough people buy into the gloom and a 40% price crash is the result. I guess at least one family must have their fingers crossed that we all become bears.

UpHillAllTheWay 25 Feb 2008, 5:32pm

I think Hitman has some good points concerning how houses should be advertised. I lived in France for a period, during which I considered buying a house. I didn't do it finally - I came back to Britain, but I learned that every house advertisement in France gives the "surface habitable" - the inhabitable surface area of the property in sq. metres. It allows for an immediate size comparison with your current house. I wish they would do it here. You're lucky if you get individual room sizes in an advert.

nitnot 29 Mar 2008, 12:45pm

The 'experts' never consider top of the range property. In 1982 I purchased a large (5000 sq.ft.)country house with land for £100,000 cash. It was recently valued by 3 agents at an average of £1.3Million. Readers may be interested to know if large houses mean bigger long term growth. Of course a cash purchase means no mortgage to pay - but how much would £100K over the last 26 years have produced? £1.2 Million - I doubt it!

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