Is The Mid-Cap Index Set to Soar?

Published in Investing Strategy on 30 July 2010

Once again, the FTSE 250 has trounced the FTSE 100.

Have you got a FTSE 100 index tracker or ETF in your portfolio? If so, you have my sympathies.

Why? Because your stake in Britain's stodgiest companies -- and companies, what's more, that are heavily skewed towards sectors such as oil, financials, and mining -- has once again been trounced by nimbler businesses.

The figures speak for themselves. A year ago yesterday, the FTSE 100 closed at 4,547. Last night, it closed at 5,314 -- a climb of 17%, reflecting a year's worth of better economic news, and the easing of the credit crunch.

But the FTSE 250 has turned in a much better performance. Comprising the 250 companies below the top 100, it's delivered a 30% return over the same period. Standing at 7,763 a year ago, the FTSE 250 index closed at 10,074 last night.

In short, the return from the FTSE 250 has outperformed the return from FTSE 100 by a whopping 75%. And it's outperformed by FTSE All-Share by almost exactly the same amount, because a large chunk of the All-Share is made up of the FTSE 100.

Fast track

I wrote about the FTSE 250's sparkling performance just over a year ago, pointing out how it had previously outshone the FTSE 100 and FTSE All-Share.

From the low point of the previous downturn in March 2003, the FTSE All‑Share and FTSE 100 had climbed 118% and 105% respectively by the market's peak in June 2007. Yet the FTSE 250 had soared by a much more impressive figure -- a whopping 221%, more than twice the growth achieved by the FTSE 100, and almost twice the performance of the FTSE All‑Share.

And in short, from the way things are going, it looks set to turn in the same level of out-performance again.

Elephants don't gallop

Why does this happen? The simplest explanation is summed up in that well-known phrase from investment guru Jim Slater, first articulated in The Zulu Principle: "elephants don't gallop".

And the FTSE 100, for the most part, are lumbering elephants. HSBC (LSE: HSBA), BP (LSE: BP), GlaxoSmithKline (LSE: GSK), Unilever (LSE: ULVR) -- these are giant businesses, supertankers of the financial world.

Income and safety

That doesn't mean to say, of course, that one shouldn't invest in these elephants. Most of my own direct shareholdings are FTSE 100 companies, for two reasons.

First, resilience: the odd exception apart -- Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE: RBS), for instance -- FTSE 100 companies don't implode. FTSE 250 businesses do so far more frequently, as we saw this week.

And second, FTSE 100 companies throw off a decent dividend stream. As of last night, for instance, the FTSE 100 was yielding 3.4%, compared to the FTSE 250's 2.6%. That's an income 30% higher, enough to tip the balance for income investors wanting dividends today, rather than growth tomorrow.

Taking a stake

I hold both FTSE 250 and FTSE All-Share index trackers -- a reasonable enough strategy, I think. I don't hold a FTSE 100 tracker at all.

But going forward, I plan on altering the mix between the two, switching more funds out of the FTSE All-Share, and into the FTSE 250.

Fancy a dabble? Not every index tracker provider or fund platform offers a FTSE 250 tracker, so you may be out of luck with your chosen provider or platform.

But the FTSE 250 is handily available through an ETF such as the HSBC FTSE 250 ETF (LSE: HMCX) or iShares FTSE 250 (LSE: MIDD), which can be bought through your regular broker. Lyxor and db x-trackers also offer FTSE 250 ETFs.

More from Malcolm Wheatley:

Malcolm holds shares in BP and GlaxoSmithKline, and -- as noted -- also holds FTSE All-Share and FTSE 250 index trackers from HSBC and Vanguard. His delightful wife Mandy holds a Legal & General FTSE All-Share tracker.

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Comments

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Smiley61 30 Jul 2010 , 3:54pm

Two comments on this article....

Its not diversified enough, skewed towards global financials, mining and commodity companies.

The FTSE250 is more representative of the UK economy. It may be at the behest of the UK economy now but if this govenment's austerity measures wok (and the jury is still listening to the evidence), accumulation of FTSE250 stocks or ETFs in the index might be productive in the medium term.

Gengulphus 01 Aug 2010 , 10:56am

The figures speak for themselves. A year ago yesterday, the FTSE 100 closed at 4,547. Last night, it closed at 5,314 -- a climb of 17%, reflecting a year's worth of better economic news, and the easing of the credit crunch.

But the FTSE 250 has turned in a much better performance. Comprising the 250 companies below the top 100, it's delivered a 30% return over the same period. Standing at 7,763 a year ago, the FTSE 250 index closed at 10,074 last night.

In short, the FTSE 250 has outperformed the FTSE 100 by a whopping 75%.


That's nonsense, I'm afraid. I imagine that you've calculated that 75% figure on the basis that 30%/17% = 1.7647..., adjusted to a round number.

But the reality is that a £1k investment in a FTSE 100 tracker a year ago would now be worth about £1.17k, while the same amount in a FTSE 250 tracker at the same time would now be worth about £1.30k. So the FTSE 250 tracker would now be worth about £1.30k/£1.17k = 1.1111... times as much as the FTSE 100 tracker. I.e. it would have outperformed by about 11% - which is nowhere near 75%!

Gengulphus

MDW1954 01 Aug 2010 , 7:29pm

Hi there, Gengulphus.

At £300, the gain made by the FTSE 250 £1000 investment would be worth £130 more than the £170 return from the £1,000 in the FTSE 100. That's 75% more, in my book.

However, I accept that your comment identifies that the text is evidently capable of misinterpretation. I'll suggest an alternative form of words.

Foolish regards,
Malcolm Wheatley

Gengulphus 02 Aug 2010 , 3:03pm

At £300, the gain made by the FTSE 250 £1000 investment would be worth £130 more than the £170 return from the £1,000 in the FTSE 100. That's 75% more, in my book.

Yes, it's 75% more profit. That's not the same thing as the investment outperforming by 75%.

E.g. consider two investments bought for £1,000. After a year, investment A is worth £1,004 and investment B is worth £1,007. So the profit on investment B is £7, which is 75% more profit than the £4 profit on investment A.

Or even worse, suppose investment Y has shrunk from £1000 to £900 over the last year and investment Z from £1000 to £825. Investment Z's profit of -£175 is 75% more than investment Y's profit of -£100.

So by your measure, investment B has 'outperformed' investment A and investment Z has 'outperformed' investment Y by about the same amount as the FTSE 250 has 'outperformed' the FTSE 100 by over the last year... I know which of those 'outperformances' I would prefer, though!

Basically, outperformance measured by the ratio of the investment values is a useful way of comparing two investments: it gives the FTSE 250 as outperforming the FTSE 100 by a very respectable 11%, investment B as outperforming investment A by a tiny 0.3%, and investment Z as underperforming investment Y by about 9% - which actually reflects how much better the investment turned out to be in each case.

Measuring it instead by the ratio of the profits isn't: roughly the same 75% answer emerges from all three of the above comparisons, despite the fact that one is a good deal better, one is just slightly better and the third is actually worse. It's like those adverts for bank accounts offering 10 times the interest of other banks' current accounts, where when you look carefully, you find that the rival bank accounts are paying interest of 0.1% and they're paying 1%. The useful investment comparison is that the 1%-paying account outperforms the 0.1%-paying account by 0.9%; "10 times more interest" is accurate but frankly an attempt by the advertiser to pull the wool over the investor's eyes about how much better the account is; "10 times outperformance" would (if the advertiser were foolish enough to use it) probably attract unwelcokme regulatory attention...

Anyway, thanks for the offer to amend the wording. I think it's more than just a "capable of misinterpretation" issue - for the reasons I've given above, I think the current wording encourages Fools who are less good with figures than I am to think "Well, if it's good enough for Malcolm Wheatley, it's good enough for me" and end up using a very poor way of comparing investments... (Though I do have to admit that they'd have to be pretty awful with figures not to smell a rat in the "investment Z outperformed investment Y by 75%" example!)

Gengulphus

Thangbrand 02 Aug 2010 , 6:11pm

In 1996 both the FTSE 100 and the FTSE 250 were about 4000, i.e. a 1:1 ratio. The ratio is now about 1.9. Deducting about 15% to allow for the better dividend return off the FTSE 100 yields a ratio of 1.65, or a 65% better return over that period.

Therefore, I am a bit of a fan of the FTSE 250. However, I wonder whether the ratio has overshot and the FTSE 100 is due to catch up a bit.

Why is it that ISA providers and other fund managers so rarely offer FTSE 250 indexed funds? They offer FTSE 100, FTSE A/S and smaller companies (sometimes) but not FTSE 250 or mid-cap.

MDW1954 02 Aug 2010 , 10:08pm

Hello Gengulphus. Your comment, timed at 3:03pm, refers to what you don't like about the "current wording". The wording was actually revised at around 9am, following your first comment and my response saying that I'd amend the wording. Are you saying that you object to the revised wording, as well?

Foolish regards,

Malcolm Wheatley

Gengulphus 04 Aug 2010 , 10:31am

I'm afraid so. The wording I don't like is "... outperformed ... by a whopping 75%". That part of the wording hasn't changed, and it's still at odds with sensible methods of measuring investment outperformance.

I have to admit that I'd missed the change that was made, from "the FTSE NNN" to "the return from the FTSE NNN". But it doesn't address my basic point, which is simply that the outperformance quite simply isn't 75%. It also makes the sentence more cumbersome...

I don't honestly see why the actual 11% outperformance figure can't be used. It's a very nice amount to outperform by - for example, I believe it's somewhere in the region of Warren Buffett's long-term outperformance of the US stockmarket. Using it would encourage Fools to be realistic about how they measure their portfolios' performances and what they might reasonably expect to aim for in a really successful strategy - things I would expect TMF to try to encourage.

But if you must use the 75% figure, why not describe it as a comparison of gains, since that is exactly what it is? Something like "In short, the gain from the FTSE 250 is a whopping 75% more than the gain from the FTSE 100." would be OK in my view - not a method I would encourage people to use to compare investment performances, for the reasons stated in my last reply, but totally accurate. And as an added bonus, "more than" is rather more down-to-earth plain English than the investment jargon "outperform"!

Sorry about the slow reply, by the way. One of the unfortunate things about discussing articles via comments rather than on the boards as it used to be done is that the "My Fool" page doesn't point out to you that there's more discussion to look at in the way that it does for the boards!

Gengulphus

nottud394 04 Aug 2010 , 1:09pm

Are there any other funds that track the FTSE250?

The HSBC one shown cannot be included in an ISA / SIPP although the iShares can. It would be nice to have more than a single choice!

MDW1954 04 Aug 2010 , 3:07pm

To nottud394:

My HSBC FTSE 250 tracker is held in a SIPP with Hargreaves Lansdown. I believe that Alliance Trust also carries it, but I'm not 100% on that.

As noted in the article, it *does* depend on your fund platform.

FTSE 250 ETFs should be OK anywhere, though.

Malcolm Wheatley (author)

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