What are the next emerging markets, and how can you invest in them?
When it comes to emerging markets, the first area most people consider are the so-called 'BRIC' economies -- Brazil, Russia, India and China. Some, however, take an arguably more adventurous approach, looking to countries with the potential to become the next BRICs.
What is it with BRICs?
The term was famously coined in 2001 by Jim O'Neill, Goldman Sachs' Chief Economist, and well-known supporter of some northern football team. He used it to describe the nations considered most likely to surpass the largest western economies over the following 40 years.
While some consider it a piece of marketing spin, it has to some extent created its own reality, with leaders of the BRIC states now meeting together as a group to discuss their common interests. Gillian Tett in the Financial Times has called O'Neill "the man who named the future".
Investors can now buy specifically BRIC-focused products such as the iShares FTSE BRIC 50 (LSE: BRIC).
Meanwhile, in Division Two ...
But what about second-tier emerging markets, or smaller developed economies that might still be on their way up? These would be countries displaying some BRIC-like characteristics, but perhaps smaller or further behind in their development.
Our friends at Goldman have been looking into this too, and in typical style have christened them the 'Next Eleven', or 'N-11'. And they are:
- Bangladesh: Ranking lowest of the bunch in terms of schooling, telephone and internet access, and GDP per capita, Bangladesh supposedly stands to benefit from a large base of low-cost labour, a large domestic market of 156m people, and a market of nearly 3bn people in the Asian region to which it has access. There are also continuing remittances from overseas Bangladeshis;
- Egypt: Moving slowly towards a free and open market, and is investing in infrastructure, as well as benefiting from the Suez Canal and from energy generation on the Nile;
- Indonesia: another hugely populous (240m) country, and produces oil and other natural resources. Government finances have been brought under control, and the country managed to rack up a very respectable 4.5% growth during the global recession in 2009;
- Iran: An interesting choice and is the world's fourth largest oil producer;
- Mexico: As a member of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Mexico's economy is closely linked to that of the United States; while it has had a rough recession, government reforms and investment in infrastructure continue;
- Nigeria: Another populous and oil exporting country, Nigeria is the only African country on the list, which must have raised a few eyebrows in South Africa;
- Pakistan: The country has shifted from an agricultural to a services-based economy;
- Philippines: The country weathered the global recession better than its regional peers, and has a growing business process outsourcing industry;
- South Korea: Already a developed economy, South Korea continues to grow, thanks to giant corporations such as Samsung and Hyundai;
- Turkey: Although membership of the European Union appears to be a more distant prospect, the country is still a strategically located and relatively developed. It should also benefit as a transport route for oil; and
- Vietnam: Mark Mobius reported last week that he regards Vietnam as one of the world's cheapest stock markets, and is finding lots of bargains during his visit there.
Risks
For any of these countries, I can think of a list of risks as long as my arm. While some of these look worthy of a particularly long barge-pole, it's worth remembering that you can generally make more money from an investment that goes from being 'dreadful' to just 'bad', than you can from one that goes from being 'bad' to 'good', but it's a very high-risk strategy.
Remember also that being in the next bunch of contenders for economic influence in the world does not necessarily make them good places to invest.
How to invest
If you do decide to go that route, the options for investment in the Next Eleven are fairly limited at the moment. Emerging market unit trust/OEICs, investment trusts and exchange traded funds are almost invariably weighted towards the BRIC economies.
iShares offer a couple of country-specific ETFs in this area that are traded on the London market: iShares MSCI Korea (LSE: IKOR) and iShares MSCI Turkey (LSE: ITKY).
If you have access to the American markets, you can add ETFs such as Market Vectors Egypt, Market Vectors Indonesia, iShares MSCI Mexico Investable, and Market Vectors Vietnam.
Doubtless other products will follow, but I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for an iShares Iran.
More from Padraig O'Hannelly:
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