Buffett Gets It All Wrong On Banks

Published in Investing Strategy on 21 January 2010

The greatest investor of all time is completely wrong on banking profits.

"I don't see any reason why they should be paying a special tax."

So said Warren Buffett, billionaire investor, about the proposed US levy on financial firms.

Before I go on, I should say I'm a huge fan of Buffett. More than any other person, he has inspired me and thousands of others to try to emulate his enormous investing successes. I'm sure I'm not alone when I say I too hope to become a millionaire by investing in the stock market.

When Buffett speaks, he almost always makes a lot of sense. He is right far more than he is wrong. You don't get to be worth billions of dollars by making duff bets.

Wrong, wrong, wrong

Yet regarding the US levy on banks, I think Buffett is wrong, wrong and wrong again.

From what I can glean from Bloomberg, you can boil Buffett's argument down to these 2 quotes...

1) "Look at the damage Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac caused, and they were run by the Congress. Should they have a special tax on congressmen because they let this thing happen to Freddie and Fannie? I don't think so."

He's right. Congressmen should not have to pay a special tax.

But why stop with congressmen? Why shouldn't Google pay a special tax because it controls over 70% of the search engine market. Or Rightmove (LSE: RMV), because it controls over half of the UK's online property market? Or oil giants like BP (LSE: BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (LSE: RDSB) because, err, because they are big and make big profits?

It's because, like congressmen, none of the above companies were bailed out by the government. Which brings me onto Buffett's second quote…

2) "Most of the banks didn't need to be saved. Including Wells Fargo."

Buffett is missing a huge point. Without saving companies like Citibank and AIG in the US, and Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE: RBS) and Lloyds Banking Group (LSE: LLOY) here in the UK, the whole banking system could have failed. No banking system, no Wells Fargo. No saving of AIG, no Goldman Sachs.

Buffett has invested billions of Berkshire Hathaway's money into Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs, so he could be accused of talking up his own book. I don't believe he works that way, but in this instance, the conflict of interest is very apparent.

Beyond Me

As Bloomberg also reported, back at the height of the banking crisis in 2008, just as he was tipping a cool $5 billion into Goldman Sachs, Buffett himself said "If I didn't think the government was going to act, I would not be doing anything… I am, to some extent, betting on the fact that the government will do the rational thing here and act promptly."

That sounds to me like Buffett was banking on a bailout in order for his investment to be profitable. How he can now say the biggest 50 US financial institutions now banks don't deserve to pay back the money they collectively received in order to simply continue as a viable business is beyond me.

After all, banks don't seem to be having any problem whatsoever in paying their investment banking staff millions of pounds and dollars in bonuses for their great work in borrowing money from the government at 0% and investing it back into government bonds at 3%. Even I could make money doing that.

A Love For Money

Buffett has long had a close association with the finance industry. In 1991 he parachuted into Salomon Brothers as the investment bank faced a crisis that was close to putting it out of business. At the time, Buffett owned 14% of Salomon.

Today he owns large stakes in Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and General Electric, US Bancorp and American Express. Berkshire Hathaway of course is largely an insurance company and as such, essentially part of the finance industry.

I can only think he's letting this association cloud his normally impeccable judgement. It does seem an aberration, because on the same day, he continued to criticise Kraft's takeover of Cadbury (LSE: CBRY). Buffett owns a large stake in Kraft.

Get Real

So c'mon Warren. Give us all a break. Get out of bed with the finance industry and admit that without government intervention, the whole banking industry could easily have been nationalised.

You have made good money by making some brave bets at a time of maximum pessimism. Well done. But please don't say most banks didn't need to be saved. The simple fact is that if AIG were allowed to fail, most others would have too.

More on the economy and the markets:

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> Bruce Jackson has an interest in Berkshire Hathaway.

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Comments

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ARTFool54321 21 Jan 2010 , 12:17pm

I understand your argument from the perspective you indicate with the comment " How he can now say the biggest 50 US financial institutions now banks don't deserve to pay back the money they collectively received in order to simply continue as a viable business is beyond me." So your argument boils down to "their was a system bailout of the banks, so a systemic repayment is fine".
But by the same token, part of the systemic failure was through poor regulation and oversight, which is political and should be paid for by the electors of politicians, i.e. the taxpayers. Also the need for a systemic resolution was to avoid a 30s like depression, so the collective argument must be applied accross the board, not just to the banks. Other arguments include things like AIG, GE, GM & others not being banks, yet needing government bail outs too, do you think that there should be a special tax on insurance as well?
Finally where do you think this tax will come from - Are these companies going to happily take lower post tax profits or will the additional cost ultimately be bourne by the banks clients - namely those companies who's shares you are trying to use to become a millionaire?

raba9 21 Jan 2010 , 12:24pm

What complete tosh!
Taxing banks and bankers bonuses is nothing more than spiteful and just takes money out of the system with no justification. And the 50% tax runs the risk of pushing the high earners away, just as Labour 95% top rate did in the 70s. Surely 40% of quite a few millions is better than 50% of nothing.
It's interesting how little a complete failure of regulation is mentioned in the downfall of the banks - Barings on a larger scale. Had Labour known what it was doing (that would have been a first) when it created the tripartite regulation system, had it clearly defined the terms of reference for the three entities and had the FSA not been asleep at the wheel when this started to develop, this whole sorry saga might have been avoided. I suspected from day 1 that taking regulation of the banks away from the Bank of England was a disaster waiting to happen. Not that Blair/Brown would accept an ounce of the blame. It was all "imported" from overseas. Yeah, right!

DWDBen 21 Jan 2010 , 12:39pm

raba9, it's not spiteful - Banks received a massive service in the form of Governmental support to prevent their collapse. Most services have to be paid for, and this is no different.

Also, you rant about it being a failing of regulation - if I give you a gun, and you shoot someone and they die - who's really at fault? Me for providing you the gun, or you for pulling the trigger? Corporate responsibility is woeful at present on the part of the banks.

FoxyWeasel 21 Jan 2010 , 12:49pm

Sorry, no time to read all this constant ranting. Just buy an index tracker and you will be all right. I've got a life to live you know!

YNOSITHE 21 Jan 2010 , 12:51pm

I think the bank tax is fair, what is completely unfair is - is that if an ordinary business ran into trouble, neither the banks or the government would give a toss about saving your butt.
It seems to me that bankers and politicians are on a protected spieces list and must be allowed to thrive.

MrBellJingle 21 Jan 2010 , 12:52pm

''After all, banks don't seem to be having any problem whatsoever in paying their investment banking staff millions of pounds and dollars in bonuses for their great work in borrowing money from the government at 0% and investing it back into government bonds at 3%. Even I could make money doing that.''

0% !! ... If you want to be a financial journalist get your facts right. Banks like JPMorgan who didn't ask for a bailout were given the money regardless of their own Tier1 capital ratio to prevent a repeat of Northern Rock in the UK. (Give to all not one). It was repaid in full to the US taxpayer, with interest.

And now they must pay Darlings 50% bonus tax (despite no UK support)...and Obama's 0.15%... on top of the interest... on the money they didn't want.

Sounds more like how a loan shark operates than a modern tax system.

LateDeveloper 21 Jan 2010 , 1:03pm

I think Buffet is quite correct, banks did not need to be saved, it was the public that was being saved.
Which banks would actually have gone bust and not been able to get any financial backing, by others or by liquidising assets ?
Take Lloyds as an instance, when another bank was going belly up, they bought the bank, despite apparently being in trouble themselves. Yet we let these morons pay themselves huge bonuses for doing what ?
Buffet and other like minded investors would have stepped in, and worked deals out with Governments anyhow, or foreign banks, that actually are solvent, would have got these banks on the cheap.

Kickero 21 Jan 2010 , 1:07pm

Banking is a story of good bank, bad bank! We've propped up the bad banks now we're burdening the good banks for the sins of the bad.

Every industry has it's bad players, when governements wade in and bail out a car maker, should they then tax all car makers!

Really, should we burden good old prudent HSBC for the sins of greedy RBS?

I suspect Buffet is talking with a high degree of integrity, whereas the press and politicians are spinning emotive stories like this to create copy and distract people from what's really going on and the bigger issues that are a little closer to home and the next general election.

I also suspect there's a little bit more going on in the investment banks to generate such massive profits than buying bonds. What percentage of the staff are even in fixed income... 10% maybe?

This sort of generalisation makes this article feel more like a blog that an unprofessional like me would write when their bloods up; rather than a reasoned and researched piece of journalism.

TheWildshot 21 Jan 2010 , 1:19pm

raba9 I am in entire agreement with what you say and have thought it for a long time. It has been bash a banker year in 2009 since the politicians like to classify them all as the same. If there were proper regulation and not 3 bodies who did not take responsibility for the banking practices, the UK could be better sheltered from a global shock.

I am not saying the banks did not do anything wrong, only they could have been pulled into line a lot quicker. 110% mortgages are always doomed to failure and buying financial instruments which you don't understand (untraceable foreign mortgages/debt) is not a smart move in anyone's book.

carlll 21 Jan 2010 , 1:32pm

Beware of journalists meddling in politics. Stick to what you know Mr Journalist. Because your judgement and arguments are clearly flawed.

ARTFool54321 21 Jan 2010 , 1:58pm

"So c'mon Warren. Give us all a break. Get out of bed with the finance industry and admit that without government intervention, the whole banking industry could easily have been nationalised."

Sorry just also noticed this delightfull tidbit - Anyone know of a company/industry that has been nationalised without government intervention :)

JOHORA 21 Jan 2010 , 2:20pm

I have very little new to add to any of this other than to remind some readers that we are now in the second decade of the 21st. Century not the 1970’s. And the world including the banking world has changed just a bit since then!
Why should banks be allowed to operate whatever product they come up with on the public world without realising that they might be penalised if they get it wrong? It’s like saying that the people who design the technology for traffic lights shouldn’t be penalised for running a light.
I’m all for a free market but most of us know in a real world that the notion of ‘free’ comes with a cost.
JOH.

Netherwood 21 Jan 2010 , 3:51pm

I have long admired Buffett and believe him to be a man of genuine integrety. It cannot be right that the government bail out a bank with a low interest loan which the bank then lends back to the government at a higher rate, make a huge profit and then pay themselves a large bonus for being very clever. Or am I missing something?

K115 21 Jan 2010 , 3:55pm

I think if the banks can afford to pay out large bonus willy nilly to those who droped the world in the crap through imcompetence and greed. They can afford to pay back all the Tax payers momney in full. As far as threating to resgin, what a joke they should not have been allowed to resigin they should have been sacked for gross missconduct.

Things will have to change or it will happen again and the only thing bankers are good at the moment is sticking there two fingers up at everyone.

wastedyouth 21 Jan 2010 , 8:17pm

According to "the system" its up to the shareholders to decide whether they prefer the banking revenue to be paid out as employee salaries or retained as earnings and reinvested, or to be paid out as dividends.

Warren Buffett tried to control employee pay a Salomon, but didn't have a large enough shareholding to do so. The UK government do have a large enough shareholding but are too timid to pass a resolution limiting pay at RBS & Lloyds on behalf of the public.

Until the shareholders get together to control the employees, (which in general no one shareholder has enough stake to do), then all banks are essenetially run for and on behalf of the employees rather than the sharegholders. For shareholders they are speculative holdings rather than investments (according the the Graham Dodd definition of an investment).

As long as bank employees get high reward without the corresponding level of risk, i.e. get a cut of other peoples' money without risking their own, then as Nick Leeson and others have shown, all banks are liable to collapse at short notice. Just because one hasn't failed for a while doesn't mean the risk has gone away, its still there and sooner or later the inevitable failure will occur.

The suggested justification for high pay of talent drain is nonesense. I am not in banking, but as Jeremy Clarkson would say "how hard can it be?". The average banker is only of average smartness. Surgeons, academics, etc are just as smart, but work in less well paid activities.

The high salaries in banks are proof that markets are not efficient. The thing stopping salaries coming to a sensible market rate is regulation, (you can't just set up a bank easily to get some of the gravy) and so in a regulated market, it also sense that salaries and bonuses should also be regulated to prevent monopoly profits, and monopoly salaries.

wastedyouth 21 Jan 2010 , 8:20pm

Sorry for a couple of typos in the last comment - maybe if you can type, OK that's worth the £300k average pay.

gordonbanks42 21 Jan 2010 , 9:15pm

Why did the Govts in the UK, USA and elsewhere save their respective banking industries from collapse? Because it was more than the banking industries at stake. If the banking industries had folded then lots of other, "real", economic activity would have gone down the drain with them.

We are all the beneficiaries of the rescue of the banking system, so there are no benefit-based grounds to tax just the banking industry.

As to blame-based grounds, there are so many parties to blame for how the events of 2008 came about that singling out the banking industry itself is simplistic.

The fact that bankers have the market power to appropriate so much of the profit that their businesses make isn't their fault either. Anyone would amass that much market power if they could. It is the fault of the shareholders that they are allowed to get away with it. It's about time institutional shareholders did their job and protected the real interests of the people whose money they manage - mainly us.

These windfall-style tax grabs are an admission of a more general market failure, as they always are. If the other stakeholders won't address that, then it falls to the regulators to do so.

abrahamisaacs 22 Jan 2010 , 2:18pm

I don't swallow this "government intervened to save the banking industry" hype. What woudl have happened had the UK & US govts not intervened? Several banks would have gone bust (HBOS, RBS, Northern Rock ... Lehman's did go bust). The good banks would have survived and bought the assets of the bust banks at knock down prices. What would have been left out to dry would have been the failed banks' liabilities - i.e. the deposits from their corporate and personal customers. THAT was the problem. Millions of corporate and personal customers would have lost their savings, while those with mortgages would have simply seen them get transferred to other banks. Some of the good banks who had interbank loans with the bad banks would also have suffered damage, possibly bad enough to drive even some of them into bankruptcy too. So it was actually a political problem for the UK and US governments. They intervened to save themselves from the enormous social unrest that potentially would have resulted from the bank failures. To say they saved the banks is missing the real point. They intervened to save the political status quo.

max22222 22 Jan 2010 , 6:41pm

The UK banks paid 36bn pa (multiply for the US) in taxes in the years prior to the crash.

So if you were interested in making balanced policy you'd need to refund a proportion of that. But we're talking venal politicians, voted for by venal members of the public here so it won't happen.

TrippleE 22 Jan 2010 , 11:56pm

Why are we having painkillers for a financial system that was designed by those who it benefits (the incompetent government and bankers). I concur with Mr W Buffet, in that there ought not to be government intervention in the name of bailout of most of these banks, like RBS. How dare these banks in receipt of taxpayers’ money for survivor even contemplate bonuses while still deep in the RED?
If the banking brains where as brilliant as claimed by their employers such as RBS, BOS who the hell did fail to recognise that the instruments they were trading in or product designed were flawed? Save us the bullshit, the justification of talent drain is a complete and absolute nonsense. Some of these bank employees get high reward without the corresponding level of risk, yet the government is toothless to take a meaningful bit at the bank, to be seen acting, instead of fiercely and actually acting. One does not need a crystal ball to know that government primary interest to intervene was to save themselves the enormous social and political unrest that may have potentially arouse were the banks allowed to fail.

Most of us lost millions of pounds/dollars as a result of extreme challenges borne out failures from the misguided and incompetent bankers. After receipt of bailout money, they had the nerve to award themselves bonuses. They are being rewarded for incompetence and the labour government (not that conservative would have done any better) are toothless to use its power as custodian of taxpayers’ money to freeze even an ounce of bonus until the monies advanced to cushion the banks are completely paid back with interest to the treasury.

Trust me when I say, there are the likes of Warren Buffet and solvent banks out there, like panthers, waiting to pounce on failed banks, acquire them on the cheap (still works out cheaper than government bailout) and will staff the bank with less paid talented individuals that would deliver better performance and returns for their investments. I do not have to be a banker, to know that that some executives are only interested in their selfish interest on the pretext of talented brain drain, what brain drain? Get out of town, complete and utter nonsense!

SureSceptic 24 Jan 2010 , 12:12pm

Wow! The Fool has gone foolish. The article is siding with socialising losses and capitalising the gains. The powers that be spread the common myth as if bank collapses would be a bad thing. The stable banks would still remain and take on new business, and for sure the monetary system would change. Banks do not add value, thanks to double entry book keeping they generate funds based on our borrowing since funds are always lent into existence. So, without us there would be no funds anyway. Finally, it is a fact that all debt at some point needs to be liquidated or the whole system collapses. What has happened now is the debt has not been liquidated and according to some we will be having a total deficit of £4.7 T by 2013 which all has to be paid for by average Joe. Buffett says if you do not know who is the patsy in a poker game, it is you. Well in this poker game it seems that average Joe is none on the wiser while a massive wealth transfer has occured. This is financed by not the money he has but will need to earn in the future and pay back through taxation and inflation.

RobinnBanks 24 Jan 2010 , 2:29pm

More like Drain Brain, if the bankers who couldn't run their banks properly leave the country! Good Riddance!

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