The greatest investor of all time is completely wrong on banking profits.
"I don't see any reason why they should be paying a special tax."
So said Warren Buffett, billionaire investor, about the proposed US levy on financial firms.
Before I go on, I should say I'm a huge fan of Buffett. More than any other person, he has inspired me and thousands of others to try to emulate his enormous investing successes. I'm sure I'm not alone when I say I too hope to become a millionaire by investing in the stock market.
When Buffett speaks, he almost always makes a lot of sense. He is right far more than he is wrong. You don't get to be worth billions of dollars by making duff bets.
Wrong, wrong, wrong
Yet regarding the US levy on banks, I think Buffett is wrong, wrong and wrong again.
From what I can glean from Bloomberg, you can boil Buffett's argument down to these 2 quotes...
1) "Look at the damage Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac caused, and they were run by the Congress. Should they have a special tax on congressmen because they let this thing happen to Freddie and Fannie? I don't think so."
He's right. Congressmen should not have to pay a special tax.
But why stop with congressmen? Why shouldn't Google pay a special tax because it controls over 70% of the search engine market. Or Rightmove (LSE: RMV), because it controls over half of the UK's online property market? Or oil giants like BP (LSE: BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (LSE: RDSB) because, err, because they are big and make big profits?
It's because, like congressmen, none of the above companies were bailed out by the government. Which brings me onto Buffett's second quote…
2) "Most of the banks didn't need to be saved. Including Wells Fargo."
Buffett is missing a huge point. Without saving companies like Citibank and AIG in the US, and Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE: RBS) and Lloyds Banking Group (LSE: LLOY) here in the UK, the whole banking system could have failed. No banking system, no Wells Fargo. No saving of AIG, no Goldman Sachs.
Buffett has invested billions of Berkshire Hathaway's money into Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs, so he could be accused of talking up his own book. I don't believe he works that way, but in this instance, the conflict of interest is very apparent.
Beyond Me
As Bloomberg also reported, back at the height of the banking crisis in 2008, just as he was tipping a cool $5 billion into Goldman Sachs, Buffett himself said "If I didn't think the government was going to act, I would not be doing anything… I am, to some extent, betting on the fact that the government will do the rational thing here and act promptly."
That sounds to me like Buffett was banking on a bailout in order for his investment to be profitable. How he can now say the biggest 50 US financial institutions now banks don't deserve to pay back the money they collectively received in order to simply continue as a viable business is beyond me.
After all, banks don't seem to be having any problem whatsoever in paying their investment banking staff millions of pounds and dollars in bonuses for their great work in borrowing money from the government at 0% and investing it back into government bonds at 3%. Even I could make money doing that.
A Love For Money
Buffett has long had a close association with the finance industry. In 1991 he parachuted into Salomon Brothers as the investment bank faced a crisis that was close to putting it out of business. At the time, Buffett owned 14% of Salomon.
Today he owns large stakes in Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and General Electric, US Bancorp and American Express. Berkshire Hathaway of course is largely an insurance company and as such, essentially part of the finance industry.
I can only think he's letting this association cloud his normally impeccable judgement. It does seem an aberration, because on the same day, he continued to criticise Kraft's takeover of Cadbury (LSE: CBRY). Buffett owns a large stake in Kraft.
Get Real
So c'mon Warren. Give us all a break. Get out of bed with the finance industry and admit that without government intervention, the whole banking industry could easily have been nationalised.
You have made good money by making some brave bets at a time of maximum pessimism. Well done. But please don't say most banks didn't need to be saved. The simple fact is that if AIG were allowed to fail, most others would have too.
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> Bruce Jackson has an interest in Berkshire Hathaway.