Five Shares You Should Have Bought In November

Published in Investing Strategy on 1 December 2009

The FTSE 100 rose another 3% in November, but these five shares did much better.

After October's reverse, it was all systems go again for the market in November, with the FTSE 100 hitting a new yearly high of 5,383 mid-way through the month. Jitters over Dubai's debt saw it come off that high, including losing 3.2% on one day last week, the index's biggest daily fall since the end of March.

However, to put things in some perspective, the leading index is up precisely 50% from its March 2009 lows, a truly stunning performance.

As to what's next for this market, who knows? Will it surge even higher from here, breaking through 5,500 by year end, or will it slump back below 5,000 and ruin our Christmas dinners? Answers in the comments box below, please…

Anyway, as ever, there were some bright shining lights. If you'd bought these five shares at the beginning of November, you'd be feeling rather pleased with yourself.

I generally try to highlight companies of interest rather than necessarily the biggest risers on the month, with hopefully one or two of these companies set for an exciting future.

The shares you should have bought

CompanyShare PriceOne Month Gain
Minerva (LSE: MNR)55.5p54%
China Shoto (LSE: CHNS)329p59%
Ferrexpo (LSE: FXPO)200p35%
Alliance Pharma (LSE: APH)23p31%
Dunelm (LSE: DLMN)395p21%

Obviously a one-month time period is too short a space of time to measure investing success. Share price gains could be due much more to luck than to good management. But whatever the reason, investors in those five companies won't be complaining!

Why such juicy gains?

So why did the companies listed above move so much in just a one-month period?

It has been an eventful month for real estate group Minerva, with its shares jumping 54% to 55.5p largely on the back of a 50p per share cash bid for the company by South African Nathan Kirsh's KiFin.

KiFin already own 29.9% of Minerva, and their offer was a 30% premium to the prevailing share price, and also valued Minerva at a small premium to its stated net asset value as at June 2009. Still, the board of Minerva weren't impressed, saying the "offer represents an opportunistic and unwelcome attempt to acquire Minerva at a price which significantly undervalues the Company and its future prospects."

The shares trade above the cash offer, indicating the market thinks a higher bid may be in the offing. Minerva has recently renegotiated its banking facilities, giving it a little more flexibility as it works through this property downturn. You can't help but think the bid is opportunistic, but yet Minerva have much to do in the coming years to prove Mr Kirsh wrong. It should be an interesting ride.

Battery power

Backup battery manufacturer China Shoto has been one of those companies that always looks cheap, especially compared to its growth rate. Perhaps it has something to do with it being a Chinese company. Perhaps it has something to do with CEO Mr S Yang owning 47% of the company. Or perhaps it has something to do with falling profit margins and a sharply slowing growth rate.

Whatever it is, November was a good month for China Shoto shareholders, with the share price jumping 59%. Chris Menon here at The Motley Fool highlighted the company at the end of October, saying at 210p, "it certainly seems an attractive prospect…" With the shares now at 329p, investors who followed this advice will be well chuffed.

If…

Like many other commodity companies, Ukrainian iron ore pellet miner and manufacturer Ferrexpo has been on a tear, with its shares jumping 35% to 200p. Doing the trick was its interim management statement where it said it was producing at full capacity, and saw strengthened demand in its core markets.

As for the future, I'd suggest an investment in Ferrexpo is somewhat akin to having a stab in the dark. If steel prices stay high, if the global economy continues its recovery, if inflation takes off, and if there is political stability in the Ukraine, there might be further strong gains ahead. Do you feel lucky?

A rare and welcome trading statement

Small pharmaceutical entity Alliance Pharma surprised the market in November by announcing they expect profit for 2009 to significantly exceed previous expectations. In these recessionary days, such statements are incredibly rare, and the shares deservedly jumped 31% in the month of November.

The shares trade on a forward P/E of around 9, making them appear cheap. It does have a fair lump of debt, but Nigel Wray owns over 11% of the company. Alliance Pharma might be one to keep an eye on for the future.

A fast growing retailer

Dunelm is a rare beast. Like Alliance Pharma, it too recently said it will achieve a full-year result ahead of previous expectations. The specialist homewares retailer announced like-for-like sales have risen an amazing 15.1% in the first 17 weeks of their financial year.

Dunelm's value range is obviously a massive hit with cash-strapped, bargain-hunting consumers. Unfortunately the shares aren't similarly in the bargain bin, deservedly trading at a premium forward P/E of 16. If there is a market wobble in the coming months, this is certainly one company you might want to pick up in any 20% off sale.

Finding the shares that might take off next

What does all this prove? Two things…

1) Share prices can take off, sometimes unexpectedly, at unexpected times, and by surprisingly large percentages. Even though November wasn't a great month for the wider market, some good gains were still made.

2) Patience is required. Some of the companies mentioned above have seen their share prices absolutely hammered from their 2007 and 2008 peaks. But all need not be lost. Just because a company has lost 60% or 70% of its value, doesn't mean it can't rise from the ashes and enrich investors who were brave and skilful enough to buy when all about them were panic selling.

More on the economy and the markets:

> If you're in the market for buying shares, consider opening an online broker account with The Motley Fool's Share Dealing Service. You can buy and sell shares in real time for a flat rate of just £10. Click here to find out how you can open an account for free today. There is no obligation to trade.

> Bruce Jackson doesn't have an interest in any of the companies mentioned in this article.

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Comments

The opinions expressed here are those of the individual writers and are not representative of The Motley Fool. If you spot any comments that are unsuitable hit the flag to alert our moderators.

sprouty44 01 Dec 2009 , 12:15pm

Well done MF another winner. Its up there with five shares I wish I'd shorted at the top of the market, ten Grand National winners i should have included in a bet and you should not have taken the advice "sell in may and go away" this year.

But it does go to show that even in a stagnating market there are opportunities.

BrnzDrgn 01 Dec 2009 , 12:53pm

UP 1.5k down 2.2k none of these even blipped on my radar and I only invest in visible companies who I understand. So not bothered about these.

FoxyWeasel 01 Dec 2009 , 12:56pm

Why do you send me this really depressing artilce? Five shares I should have bought! Just goes to show you are better in an index tracker so you would have owned them anyhow.

uninformedJPc 01 Dec 2009 , 1:22pm

Write an article called "Five shares to Buy in December" and I'll read it.

What is the point of reading an hindsight article?

RansomStark 01 Dec 2009 , 1:46pm

I only read these shares I should have bought articles for the amusing comments!

Fabius1 01 Dec 2009 , 1:53pm

Any chance of an article each month listing 'Five shares you should buy next month'! Now that would be helpful. That way we can only blame ourselves. For instance, Money Week recommended China Shoto a while back. I haven't finished beating myself up yet.

theRealGrinch 01 Dec 2009 , 2:19pm

maybe its momentum investing??

87crashdummy 01 Dec 2009 , 3:15pm

Absolutely agree with fabius1 and UnimformedJPc
any F(f)ool can write a hindsight article!!

Luckily Digital look and Sharecrazy have been mumbling about APH and DNLM for a few weeks, managed to put a few quid in APH but the choice between DNLM and repairing the wifes car became a
no brainer!!
So now a feel quite smug at my DYOR efforts how about some future advice to help us old fools
pick the next few cherries!!!

PS As a small investor ( very small s ) i cant afford to join MF Sharedealing the subscription far outweighs what i could make with my level of investing + commissions.

Lets get back to FOOL basics and what the original idea was.

regards
alan

only1JimBowen 01 Dec 2009 , 3:30pm

Look at what ya could have won !!!

Fingered 01 Dec 2009 , 3:33pm

Burning the turkey is a good way to ruin Christmas lunch or having the local pub go out of business another way or getting another hindsight article saying what they should have done throughout December is another. :-)

malchill 01 Dec 2009 , 4:34pm

Any idea of the lottery numbers this saturday as I know what they were last saturday.
Hindsight is a great thing if I had it I would be the richest person on earth..

allreasons 01 Dec 2009 , 4:38pm

It is lucky that 'Motley Fool' is eco friendly ....... I DONT HAVE TO BIN THE WASTE OF PAPER THAT IT IS NOT WRITTEN ON. Come on guys write something useful

callanda 01 Dec 2009 , 5:03pm

I think I might short these five and write an article 5 shares I shorted last week.

A2theK 01 Dec 2009 , 9:36pm

One of the key functions of studying history is so that WE as a species can LEARN from our mistakes... Doesn't tend to work in money industry circles if we go by the evidence - boom, bust, boom, bust, boom bust... Maybe because all the 5 Shares You Should Have Bought Last Month articles and their ilk are roundly ridiculed by all those in search of a quick buck! You idiots wish you were FOOLS.

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