China's Great Wall Of Worry

Published in Investing Strategy on 1 October 2009

As the world pulls out of recession, there is no question which country is leading the charge: China.

Anybody who flipped money into China at the start of the year won't have regretted their decision for a moment, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 85% this year, which puts the FTSE's little spurt into the shade.

As always happens when a market storms the citadels, investors fret over whether it can hang onto its gains. There has been plenty of talk of an asset bubble in China lately, so is the recovery on shaky foundations?

East is best

China's stock markets corrected in August, but have since recovered on the back of promising data. Car sales are up. Bank lending is soaring. Inflation remains low. The results season was encouraging. GDP growth is now expected to exceed 8% a year, according to Barclays Capital.

The worry is that this has been artificially fuelled by Beijing's mighty 4 trillion yuan (£359 billion) stimulus package, which has fuelled a property and stock asset bubble.

Yet there are signs that the recovery is sustainable. Beijing's stimulus package was targeted on infrastructure and other government projects, but China's services sector, which accounts for around 40% of its economy, has also grown strongly. It recently hit its highest level for two years, which suggests the recovery might be broader than many feared.

Go east, young man

Perhaps the biggest question hanging is whether China can rebalance its relationship with its western trading partners.

China's astonishing growth was largely fuelled by western demand for its consumer goods (which they kindly loaned us the money to buy). The subsequent debt-fuelled consumer frenzy led to the credit crunch, and there is no returning to those days. UK and US consumers are neither willing nor able to rack up huge debts to continue buying China's goods.

Exports are dramatically down. Chinese current account surpluses are beginning to narrow.

The lost demand will have to be made from other sources, notably parsimonious Chinese consumers. There are sound historical reasons why the Chinese prefer to stow money away rather than blow it on consumer fun, but that will have to change if its economy is to continue growing.

There are signs that this is happening, with retail sales up 15% year on year. If the Chinese consumer does emerge from its shell, the impact on the global economy could be massive.

The wild, wild east

Anybody investing in China must climb a great wall of worry. Protectionism is a constant concern. China infuriated the US by artificially keeping the renminbi low, underpinning its export-led growth.

Now the west is worried about asset hoarding. China started buying up global copper reserves earlier this year, no doubt tired of holding dollars, and recently bid for up to one-sixth of Nigeria's crude reserves.

Any trade war would be ugly, so ugly, in fact, that you would imagine both west and east are desperate to avoid it.

Under eastern eyes

Whatever you think of China, you can't ignore it. Investors certainly don't want to. The Asia-Pacific ex-Japan Sector is a favourite among investors, largely down to the pulling power of China.

China isn't the strongest performing country in the region. Surprisingly, stock markets in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines have been growing at an even faster rate.

Fortunately for UK investors, the most popular funds aren't pure plays in China but invest across the region, giving you access to a good spread of local economic success stories.

The east wing

If you want a good fund, you don't need to look further than First State Asia Pacific, which tops its sector after growing 79% over three years. Angus Tulloch also manages First State Asia Pacific Leaders, and is rated Trustnet's top fund manager across all sectors over five years, beating Martin Lau, Timothy Youngman and my favourite fund manager Philip Gibbs.

First State Asia Pacific is one of the few funds I stuck by when I recently exorcised my over-priced unit trust portfolio, and as I've mentioned before, I've also done jolly well out of investment trust Scottish Oriental Smaller Companies (LSE: SST).

There are some other decent open-ended out there, including Melchior Asian Opportunities, which returned 67% over the past 12 months according to Trustnet.com, Fidelity South East Asia (49%) and Schroder Alpha Asian Plus (45%).

East side story

Since the credit crunch, there has been increasingly heated talk about the shift of power from west to east. This has recently notched up a gear, with talk of the renminbi replacing the dollar as the world's reserve currency. While the symbolic implications excite commentators, I personally think this has been overdone. It will take years for the world to relinquish the dollar, and any US comeback in the interim, or Chinese setback, could kill the process stone dead.

China's growth story won't be without its problems, but it does seem to have quelled recent worries. The authorities are confident that the economy will grow on averaged 8% a year in future.

Now the world's third largest economy, it is likely to steadily advance to become the biggest in a decade or two.

Shares are no longer cheap, and you can't expect stock markets to rise another 85% over the next six months. But barring disasters, every serious investor has to go to China.

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Comments

The opinions expressed here are those of the individual writers and are not representative of The Motley Fool. If you spot any comments that are unsuitable hit the flag to alert our moderators.

theRealGrinch 01 Oct 2009 , 2:07pm

chinese market is overvalued and due for a 20% correction over the next few months.

CheckeredBuffoon 02 Oct 2009 , 11:55am

Based on what? You can't just make a sweeping statement like that without backing it up. We're living and working over here just now and the recession was barely noticed for most people and is now a memory - you only have to walk through the shops or bars and restaurants to see that the goods times are rolling. I think the point made in the article is very valid - the Chinese stimulus was careful focused, as only the Chinese can, and the rest of the economy here is on it's own and still moving forward.

watching101 03 Oct 2009 , 6:04pm

The Chinese government have and hold the right to print their own money. Therefore they are not effected in the same way as us, due to private banks printing our money as loans to our governments and paid back by the taxpayer.

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