The Reality Of Stop-Losses

Published in Investing Strategy on 10 September 2009

They often lock in your losses just before the share price rebounds.

When I told my editor I was keen to write about stop-losses, he told me to watch my step. Some of our members don't like them, he said. In fact, they really, really don't like them. Expect a pasting in the comment boxes below.

I thanked him for the warning, but I'm not too worried about any backlash. I've been testing out stop-losses recently, despite promising myself I wouldn't dabble in the black arts, and I'm not convinced by them either.

Stop my losses, please!

It was the annual September pessimism that got me thinking about stop-losses. It's a horrible month for investors. My portfolio had revived nicely over the summer, and I didn't want to see it bludgeoned in some fresh global bloodbath, so I decided to get a bit defensive.

Will he never learn?

I should have known better. I had suffered bruising encounters with stop-losses before, while dabbling in spread betting. You can read about my troubles here: You Can't Gamble Your Way Out Of A Stock-Market Crash.

Because I wasn't brave or rich enough to do spread betting properly, I set my stop-losses too conservatively, and time after time they closed my bet after markets briefly flipped against me.

My experience confirmed what I had been warned about stop-losses -- that they are a great way of locking in your losses. They are equally adept at stopping you from making any future profits.

What comes after win-win? That's right

But this time, I thought, it would be different. I decided to place stop-losses on a number of individual company shares, ones that had already made me a 25%-plus profit.

That way, if the September slamdown came, I would have clung onto some of my summer profits.

Interestingly, I couldn't bring myself to set any stop-losses on those shares that haven't made any profits yet. Locking in a 10% loss didn't seem as appealing as locking in a 25% gain.

As always with stop losses, the theory is great, and seems to promise win-win, but the practice is less than perfect.

In late August, I placed a stop-loss on Volvere (LSE: VLE), which was up more than 30% since I bought it, and set the stop-loss to trigger if my return fell to 25%.

For added sophistication, I chose a trailing stop-loss, which rises as the share price does, locking in an ever greater chunk of profit. As I said, win-win.

Yer lost!

With the share price at 255p, I set my stop-loss at 235p. Since I bought at 185p in May, that still guaranteed me a nice profit, which I duly took, about one day later, when the share price dipped.

Brilliant, you might think, except the next day it rebounded to 243p, but I had already exited my position.

And that's the trouble with stop-losses. They quit the market at the first sign of gunfire, which is no way to run a red-blooded portfolio.

Stop-losses or stop-profits?

A couple of days later, the same thing happened with my second trailing stop-loss.

Different stock, same story. The share price dipped, my stop-loss pinged, and the stock reverted to its previous level.

I wasn't too upset. Unlike my spread-betting experience, I was locking in profits rather than losses. And I tried my damnedest to follow Bruce Jackson's advice, and not worry about stocks after I had sold (it's not easy, Bruce).

But it is clearly no way to run a portfolio. The September crash hasn't happened yet and two of my three defensive traps have already been sprung.

Any long-term rewards I may have reaped from these stocks has been squandered in the attempt to avert short-term losses.

Once in a blue moon

There are circumstances when a stop-loss can work in your favour. If these two stocks had fallen through the floor, either because of bad company news or a wider market crash, I might be sounding a bit smug right now.

And I would be infuriatingly smug if they had leapt up first, hiking my trailing stop-loss, then plunged.

But that didn't happen. And in truth, it isn't going to happen that often.

Never again?

I still have one trailing stop-loss in place, on Aveva (LSE: AVV), one of Maynard Paton's tips in The Motley Fool's Champion Shares stock-tipping service. I'm sitting on a profit and so I've upped my trailing stop-loss.

But on the whole, I'm not impressed. Stop-losses can protect you from a wider meltdown, but they really aren't equipped to cope with the day-to-day volatility of stock markets.

Stop-losses appear to promise the world, limiting your downside, while leaving you free to explore any upside. But all too often they do exactly the opposite, locking in your downside, by pinging on just one day's bad trading, and barring you from any potential upside.

I don't completely rule out using them again, but I'm in no hurry to set any more at the moment.

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Comments

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lotontech 10 Sep 2009 , 10:44am

Hi Harvey,

I'm sorry to hear that you're not getting on with stop orders, but I have to say:

I don't think stop orders are the problem, but your use of them.

(just as there are no dangerous cars, only dangerous drivers)

The main problem seems to be that you were trying to use stop orders to "lock in profits" (your words) and "let losses run" (couldn't bear to set a stop-loss when not in profit) when in fact you should be doing exactly the opposite: cut your losses and run your profits.

The other problem seems to be that you were trailing your stops upwards automatically -- perhaps too keenly -- with no regard for price support levels.

If you want to learn how to use Stop Orders effectively, Harriman House (publishers) will be publishing a book specifically on that subject soon -- but of course I can't mention the title or link to it here.

Oh, and it's not impossible to "gamble" (your term) your way out of a stock market crash. I did, and I blogged about it.

Don't get me wrong. I think this is a great article warning about the very real dangers of stop orders in inexperienced hands. I made all the same mistakes as you before "the penny dropped" ;-)




LastChip 10 Sep 2009 , 11:09pm

Yes, you're going to get all sorts of answers to this one.

Personally, I never used one in anger, but more as a warning for me to reappraise whether it was worth keeping the stock.

However, having been crucified last year (along with practically everyone else), I'm now using a trailing optimised stop loss and if it triggers, I will in all probability, sell. It's not automatic. It needs my intervention to actually sell the stock and so there is a human element to the equation.

But, I've been caught too many times with a stock showing a nice profit, slowly falling and me believing it will pick up again - when of course, it doesn't.

Not any more. Bruce is right; it's never wrong to take a profit.

Move on and find the next profit generator.

thsths 11 Sep 2009 , 9:28am

The problem I have with stop loss orders is that even if you need them, they may not work as expected. Stock prices do not move smoothly like temperature, but they can jump as positions are closed.

So if you put a stop loss order at 90, but the market falls to 80 in jump, you may only get 80. And the more people use stop loss orders (they seem to be popular at the moment), the more likely this becomes.

Finally, if you believe in fundamentals (and I do), stop loss orders are the wrong thing to do. If stock is cheap, you should be buying it, not selling. And if you think about it, this is the main reason you lost out with those two orders.

lotontech 11 Sep 2009 , 11:01am

Hey thsths,

The "price gap" problem that you raise is a very valid point, for which there are a number of remedies:

* Use 'guaranteed' stop orders if your spread betting firm (probably not stockbroker) provides them.

* Use a 'stop-with-limit' order that executes if the price falls beyond level X but not beyond lower level Y. I know that Barclays Stockbrokers provides these.

* Temporarily remove your stop order before the market opens, if you think the price might gap down because there is an impending announcement.

* Don't set your stop orders so close in the first place; which of course depends on your trading style.

* Don't place your stop at an obvious level, like a round number, if you're worried about market makers forcing the price down temporarily to stop you out.

I can't go into any more detail without actually duplicating a whole chapter from my book, but it gives you some food for thought.

actiondan 11 Sep 2009 , 12:46pm

Isn't the availability of level-2 market data a worry with stop-losses?

Couldn't someone determine that the stock was close to a position where a number of people had placed stops, and then short the stock, in order to trigger the stop-losses?

Perhaps this isn't so easy to do, but I'm not that happy that if I log a pending order, it's there for traders to see - not as my orders are that big anyway.

Jonesey12 11 Sep 2009 , 12:57pm

Harvey Jones here.

Hi lotontech. Thanks for your advice. I do seem to learn about investing by crashing and burning, rather than learning how to drive first. Mind you, it's probably more entertaining for everybody else.

And hello thsths. "If stock is cheap, you should be buying it, not selling." Good point, nicely put.

LARFIELD 11 Sep 2009 , 2:22pm

I am a buy & hold investor (which has not been a great place to be these last 12 months) so stop losses are anathema.
That said they clearly fill a hole where you have not the time/energy/information to closely follow your own investments.
The main problem highlighted in the article is the need to avoid sharp dips which are not symptomatic of the long term prospects of a particular stock. I take no interest & therefore know nothing about this area of investment but I do know that there will be a stop loss programme out there which recognizes (& in consequence ignores) dips of this nature. Might I suggest Harvey, & others who share this concern, discover & use this.
HstG

kramch 11 Sep 2009 , 3:24pm

I have been reading Stan Weinsteins "Secrets for profiting in bull and bear markets" over the summer. He identifies 4 stages in a share's movement; the basing stage (moving sideways), the advancing stage (after the breakout) the top area and the decline. He sets automatic buys and stops and pays a lot of attention to support levels. In an advancing stage he moves his stops up to under the last pull-back suppport so as not to get stopped out by volatility, but as the stage matures and the 30 week moving average catches up with the share price he sets his stops closer in.
He wrote this in 1988 when automatic stops were new and you plotted graphs by hand!

supersol42 11 Sep 2009 , 4:46pm

Short term volatility is undoudtedly a real problem with stop losses, but it is possible to hedge against this with traded options. Having said that, we all know what can happen to those who indulge in derivatives...

etlbajb 13 Sep 2009 , 6:11pm

Hi ... Useing a system like Sharescope one can easily set a stop loss at a level that represents a relatively unusual price dip. Its when slosses automatically trigger a sale without human intervention that they get a bad name.

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