All Rallies Come To An End

Published in Investing Strategy on 13 August 2009

All good rallies come to an end. Deal with it.

I've lost my bearings in recent weeks. It's the rally, you see. All those sudden short-term gains play havoc with your sense of perspective.

With markets rolling along, and my portfolio riding shotgun, I started to get a little greedy, expecting my portfolio to rise 3% or 4% every week, and getting frustrated with any stock that didn't break sweat.

With greed comes that other pungent investor emotion, fear. On Tuesday I read a doom-laden article claiming China's stock markets were a crazy bubble, its stimulus package couldn't offset a 23% drop in exports, and the subsequent crash would sink the rest of us.

Normally I would have taken the news calmly, and carried on. Not this time. I was suddenly all for selling my stocks, my funds, my house, my parents, and hunkering down to avoid the second great crash that was heading our way.

Head for the hills!

I even pitched it as an idea to my editor: Sell everything you ever owned and run for the hills!

He didn't like it. In fact, he gave me a proverbial slap in the face, and brought me to my senses. All rallies have to come to an end at some point, he said, and so will this one. Deal with it.

Bull or bear -- who cares?

I realised the recent glorious run had left me addicted to the adrenalin rush of turbo-charged growth. I was desperate for the fix to continue. So at the first hint of withdrawal symptoms, I panicked and overreacted. That's no way to run a portfolio.

I'm not the only one. The bears and uber-bears are now sharpening their claws, and advising investors to take their summer profits and hibernate for the winter.

And when I read their arguments, I get fearful again.

But then I read the bulls and uber-bulls, who claim the rally is still in its infancy, and I get all greedy.

This kind of thinking has to stop. So how do I deal with it?

Strategic thinking

At times like these, it is worth going back to basics. Ask why you are investing, what your strategy is, and whether you are really up to the job. Otherwise you risk getting blown about by the constantly-shifting winds of opinion and murky science of crystal ball gazing.

So why am I investing? Aside from the sheer challenge of it, I'm 43, would like to retire one day, and because I'm self-employed I have to make my own pension plans. So I'm investing for the long-term, which means time is on my side, and I shouldn't lose heart just because one short-term rally comes to an end.

Your reasons are likely to be different, but not that different.

My strategy is to add a bit of spice to my pension funds and unit trusts by using Fool.co.uk to identify single company stocks that will outperform the market.

In practice, that means a mix of sturdy companies paying rising dividends such as GlaxoSmithKline (LSE: GSK), BP (LSE: BP), Tesco (LSE: TSCO)and Vodafone (LSE: VOD), my emerging market investment trust faves BlackRock Latin American (LSE: BRLA), Baring Emerging Europe (LSE: BEE) and Scottish Oriental Smaller Companies (LSE: SST), and a few thrillers from the AIM markets, sourced from Maynard Paton.

Barring accidents, the dividend-payers and investment trusts should be my constant companions through thick and thin. That means I don't abandon them at the first sound of gunfire.

The growth stocks require closer attention, naturally, but if the original reason for investing in a business is still in place, I shouldn't get spooked by feverish macro speculation. In other words, no timing the market.

The long game

In conclusion: we should all play the long game, only investing money that we won't need for the next five, 10, 15 or 20 years. This means the next market setback isn't a reason to sell, but an opportunity to buy.

Draw up a long-term strategy and stick to it, rather than getting carried away by short-term highs and lows.

As Brian Richards points out in Companies You Should Buy Right Now, we have a tendency to buy and sell too often, suffocating growth and generating excessive dealing charges. I have suffered from that tendency.

So I'm not selling my parents, or my portfolio. Although I am cooling things by edging into low-risk, dividend paying stocks, having swallowed Bruce Jackson's recent argument that these are The Only Shares To Buy Today. And then I'm sticking with them, which is wise, given that around 45% of stock market returns come from dividends.

The final question is whether I am up to the job? That one hangs in the balance, but the signs are a little more positive. Sometimes you have to lose your bearings, in order to find them again.

More from Harvey Jones:

> Harvey owns GlaxoSmithKline, BP, Tesco,Vodafone, BlackRock Latin American, Baring Emerging Europe and Scottish Oriental Smaller Companies.

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Comments

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TMFGoogly 14 Aug 2009 , 12:46am

Great article Harvey. I too am easily addicted to the "instant successes" all our portfolios have been having in recent months. Times will change.

Jonesey12 14 Aug 2009 , 2:17pm

Harvey Jones here.

Hi TMFGoogly. Thanks, and i'm glad to hear that I'm not the only addict out there!

2381nickp 14 Aug 2009 , 6:36pm

'In conclusion: we should all play the long game, only investing money that we won't need for the next five, 10, 15 or 20 years.'
So I guess that means don't buy shares if you are receiving a state pension?

2381nickp 14 Aug 2009 , 6:36pm

'In conclusion: we should all play the long game, only investing money that we won't need for the next five, 10, 15 or 20 years.'
So I guess that means don't buy shares if you are receiving a state pension?

guykguard 14 Aug 2009 , 8:27pm

Mr Harvey is open, and kind, enough to share some of his personal information. For my part I live in a partly-French speaking country, and I've spoken the language for over 60 years. I was therefore intrigued by Mr Harvey's metaphor: "That means I don't abandon them at the first sound of gunfire."

For those whose French is a tad rusty, the rough translation of a rhyming metaphor on the lips of most French-speaking investors is: "Buy at the sound of gunfire; sell at the sound of the bugle." (Acheter au son du canon: vendre au son du clarion.)
There must be many interpretations of this saying: the literal one, of course, and any number of others. Of these, one might be: buy when things are going badly, sell when they're going well. And it's pretty wise advice, I find.

No equivalent saying in our language comes to mind. Can anyone help?

scotsboy1 14 Aug 2009 , 9:02pm

Guykguard

I believe the equivalent of "Buy at the sound of gunfire; sell at the sound of the bugle" is "buy the rumour, sell the fact"

guykguard 16 Aug 2009 , 8:29pm

@scotsboy1

Could be. And it's neat, new one on me.

The curious aspect of this commonplace French saying is that it seems to contradict Harvey Jones's temptation to sell his blue chips when things go bad on him -- a temptation he says he, wisely, doesn't give in to.
Some commentators claim that the French and German economies were less badly damaged in the credit crunch than the Anglo-Saxon economies, so they're recovering sooner and faster. France's excellent Finance Minister, Madame Lagarde, told Newsnight last week that public spending in France had been increased in the teeth of the recession, and the private sector had given still higher priority to technological innovation and to exports. If so, the French kept on buying conmparative economic advantage despite the mayhem being inflicted on the real economy by the financial IEDs. Not bad use of the rhyming metaphor, eh?
I apologize to Harvey Jones for calling him Mr Harvey. Should I better say Monsieur Jones?:)

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