Six Steps To Smarter Spread Betting

Published in Investing Strategy on 31 July 2009

Spread betting allows you to profit from the ups and downs of many different financial instruments, including shares. But it's not for the faint-hearted...

Although I've been investing in companies for 23 years, I've been spread betting for only two years. The reason for this 21-year gap is very simple: buying shares in well-managed businesses is far less risky than betting on the future direction of financial markets.

Patient investing usually pays off

When you're investing in company shares, time is on your side. Over time, if a company does well, then its profits should rise, leading to higher dividends to shareholders and a rising share price. Although share prices can be highly volatile, especially in troubled times, capturing your share of the long-term growth of British businesses is a patient process. Ideally, your timescale for investing should be ten or more years.

A ride on a rocket

Then again, compared with investing, spread betting is a wild, adrenaline-fuelled ride in a rocket. Spread betting allows you to make tax-free gains by betting on the future direction of financial instruments, including individual shares, indexes (such as FTSE 100), bonds, currencies, commodities and even house prices. You name it, if there's a market, there's a spread bet for it.

As well as being free of Capital Gains Tax (CGT), spread bets allow you to take positions using leverage. In other words, as with buying a house, you don't have to pay the full price. Instead, you put down a deposit, rather than fully paying for a bet. For liquid (easily traded) shares in large companies, such as blue-chip FTSE 100 firms, your deposit can be as low as 5%.

In addition, unlike investing, spread betting allows you to profit from falls as well as rises in asset prices. This means that you can 'short' using spread bets and profit when prices fall. Given that the stock market has plunged over the past two years, shorting has become an increasingly attractive pastime among spread betters. Alas, when shares go through one of their periodic leaps, shorters are often left nursing burnt fingers!

A dangerous gamble?

In my view, the biggest problem with spread betting is the number of people who are attracted to it as a means to 'make a quick buck' or 'get rich quick'. This means that the turnover of spread-betting clients is very high. Indeed, anecdotes suggest that 80% to 90% of new spread betters get wiped out by losing 100% of their initial stake. Thus, gambling addicts and raw recruits often end up 'churned and burned'.

Another problem with spread betting is that you need to get quite a few things right for your bet to pay off. You need to bet in the right direction, get your timing right and choose the right-sized bet. Thanks to gearing (the magnification of your position using leverage), you can suffer large losses when you get any of these three factors wrong.

Here are six more things you should be aware of before spread betting:

1. Overall, spread-betting is a losing game

As with all companies, spread-betting firms make their money by picking their customers' pockets. In other words, the majority of a spread-betting firm's profit comes from money milked from, and losses run up by, its customers. For example, leading spread-bet outfit IG Group (LSE: IGG) made a pre-tax profit of over £111 million in its latest financial year. So, taken as a whole, spread betting is a losing game for punters and a winning game for financial bookmakers.

2. If you use leverage, then you must have liquidity

Betting using leverage is dangerous. If you bet on a share using a 10% deposit, then your exposure to the underlying movement of said share is increased by a factor of ten. So, if a share price suddenly falls 20%, then you lose double your initial stake. At this point, your spread-bet provider will call or email you, demanding a sizeable 'margin call' -- more stake money to support your bet.

If you can't meet your margin calls (sometimes, extra money must be deposited that day), then your bet will be closed and your profit or loss will be crystallised. So, if you bet using leverage, then be sure to have plenty of liquidity. In other words, keep plenty of spare cash on deposit to meet margin calls at a second's notice.

3. A wrong-sized bet is a big mistake

In 2007, during my early days of spread betting, I had a strong run of winning bets. As my profits mounted, I saw myself as a skilful and gifted spread better. However, readers of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's excellent book Fooled By Randomness would see my problem immediately: my success may have been entirely down to dumb luck!

I got my comeuppance on what I now dub 'Kerviel Day'. European markets went into a nosedive in January 2008 on news of a €4.5bn loss by rogue trader Jérôme Kerviel at French bank Société Générale. With share prices dropping 10% or 20% at market open, I took a hiding, losing more than £10,000 within minutes of the London Stock Exchange opening.

This setback taught me a valuable lesson. In hindsight, I realise that I was taking too much risk, simply because my bets were too large. As the amount of leverage I was using was far too high, I cut back my positions and increased my liquidity. Later in the year, when markets started to plunge after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, I was much better prepared and didn't take a nasty bath.

In short, don't get too fond of leverage and watch your liquidity, or a wrong-sized bet could take you to the cleaners. Today, leverage adds only 5%-ish to my total stock-market exposure.

4. Watch out for changing margin rates

In times of increasing volatility, punters lose a packet and spread-bet companies worry about bad debts. That's why they can change margin rates at a moment's notice (although they usually give punters a week or two to stump up more cash).

For example, in February 2009, IG Index decided to increase its margin rates, almost across the board. In my case, I had two weeks to increase the margin on every bet I held. The margin on my largest bet soared from 25% to 75%, meaning that I had to triple my initial stake money. Fortunately, since Kerviel Day, I kept a large cash cushion, so I was able to avoid my bets being closed out for lack of margin.

5. Be aware of how spread-bet firms make their money

Spread-betting firms make money in a variety of ways. If they don't hedge your bets (offset your position in the wider market), then they win when you lose -- and vice versa. Also, they charge you 'funding interest' on your bet (say, around 5% a year), either through a daily charge or by adjusting the price of your bet. Also, they add on a margin above the usual market spread, so a share priced at 100p to sell and 102p to buy might be 99p to sell and 103p to buy via a spread bet.

These charges really add up, so keep an eye on them. I use four different spread-betting accounts in order to shop around for the best combination of spreads, margin rates and so on.

6. Be prepared for a rollercoaster

Spread betting is not for the faint-hearted or foolhardy. The combination of gearing, market timing and bet direction can be toxic for punters. It's all too easy to get into trouble and run up large losses when you're wrong. Even using stop losses (guaranteed exit points) can prove costly when markets are swinging like a pendulum.

If this sounds at all risky or complicated, then spread betting probably isn't for you. Stick to long-term investing instead!

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Comments

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lotontech 31 Jul 2009 , 5:49pm

I was pleasantly surprised to see an article on spread betting on fool.co.uk :-)

However, I don't really see any fundamental difference between spread betting and 'proper' investing / trading.

* In both cases you are betting on the direction of the market or your chosen stock. Even non-spread-bettors invest in the expectation, or at least the hope, that their share prices will rise, not fall.

* Investments and (rolling) spread bets can both be held theoretically forever, although as you say the rolling spread bets do attract a daily interest charge.

* Spread bets pay dividends on stocks and indices, just like regular investments.

Spread bets are not necessarily more risky: there are no dangerous spread bets, only dangerous spread bettors.

If your spread bet is leveraged at 10x, then just 'bet' the equivalent of 1/10 of what you would 'invest'. And don't forget to use Stop Orders! On which subject...

Cliff, stop orders are not "guaranteed exit points" unless they are "guaranteed stop orders". And stop orders are only costly in volatile markets if you set them too tight and keep trying to re-enter the market. This kind of over-trading can be practised in a regular brokerage account just as easily as in a spread betting account.

Nice one Cliff, for at least tackling this subject. But as for your final advice, you will be interested to know that:

(as there is nothing inherently short-term about spread betting, despite what you read) I'm sticking with "long-term spread betting".

And I'm not joking, either.

castath 31 Jul 2009 , 10:29pm

Cliff, glad to see you are still with TMF. When can we have some more "House Prices Are Going To Crash" articles?

Back to spread betting, I would guess that understanding leverage is where a lot of spreadbettors fail, well that and greed.

Since we are in a market that is likely to trade sideways for the next 8 years you are not going to get rich buying shares (I speak generally).

Timing of the market is where money will be made and spread betting is your best tool as you buy the cyclical bulls and sell the cyclical bears, only when this secular bear ends and a new secular bull begins will be the time to move back to buying shares and holding for the long term.

I do disagree with Lotontech though, a spread bet should only be open for the short-term.

lotontech 01 Aug 2009 , 7:01am

Hi castath,

I'm genuinely interested to know why "a spread bet should only be open for the short-term".

Is this view because of the daily interest charge, the counterparty risk, or because you see spread bets only as useful for swing trades and not position trades? Or for some other reason?

As I'm writing about such things, I'm really interested to hear more.

Tony Loton.

Terrapin1 01 Aug 2009 , 3:51pm

spreadbets are a good low cost way of learning how to trade forex intra day-the spreads however are a bit rich- they aim to make a killing whereas we aim to make a living-and if they see you doing that they (the bookies who are the spreadbet firms) will make life difficult.

castath 02 Aug 2009 , 9:34pm

Hi Lotontech,

I speak generally as there are many variables and assumptions including your personal situation when calculating whether to spread bet or buy shares.

In the long-term, the benefits of holding shares such as dividends (the spread betting company I use doesn't pay dividends), rights issues, splits, voting, benefits etc with tighter spreads and no interest charges will eventually erode the short term benefits of spread betting that have no fees or duty to pay.

The three main factors are how much we bet, how much we win/lose and how long we hold and since two of these are unknown we can only forecast.

The main thing to remember is that your spread betting company is not your friend. They are very aware of traders positions and stops and will manipulate prices accordingly.

rogersgoose 03 Aug 2009 , 1:39pm

Hi Folks.Interesting comments.I have been running a Spread betting program using the Capital Spreads platform.Though it could easily be described as a Diving board for the fear it can at times instill.

Tread with caution.As mentioned they know where your stops are and love taking them out,despite denying that it is common practice.Plenty of evidence around from experienced floor traders to back the statement if you look.
Also you need a sizeable pot cushion your losses

LindaMayRumble 03 Aug 2009 , 2:59pm

Very pleased to see an article on spread betting with some good advice.
With hindsight I would certainly warn anyone thinking of going with companies such as IG (Galvan) or JN Financial to steer clear... Do not trust their promises that their professional traders will show you how to make profits through CFD trading... and do NOT to trust any money with them unless you are prepared to lose it all.
I went with both and very much regret it... No profits... both companies just lost all I entrusted them with within a month!
Like the writer of this article, I had a great run at first with CDF Trading and Spread Betting on both my Demo & 'Real' Barclays Stockbrokers platforms, but my beginners luck started to run thin after about 6 weeks and I found that through my own bad judgement and a faulty platform (only on my real platform!), I am now in a loss position on both.
My shares on the other hand are certainly making more than they would in any savings account.

mfnb 03 Aug 2009 , 5:01pm

I have developed an "always win" system -
and have been trying to sell it; but it is
difficult to find anyone to believe me.
Naturally I don't have to sell it - but
I don't like gambling! (at all)
Worse, I cannot morally sell it to a person
who may (stupidly) lose his entire estate!
I have approached traders but even when I can
show them my results, they don't want to part
with any serious money. (who would?)
Anyone like to buy a gold brick?
mfnb.

LindaMayRumble 03 Aug 2009 , 5:17pm

How wonderful mfnb!
Sounds too good to be true!
Why trouble yourself by worrying about the morals of whether to sell your "always win" system or not... if you could find a buyer... just sit back and let the millions come in!
Enjoy!

RobinnBanks 03 Aug 2009 , 11:55pm

Now for something completely different!
"For a gentler ride, try the Motley Fool's Share Dealing Service," - I liked the Monty Python style!

chrisoxon 14 Sep 2009 , 9:40pm

SBetting is a good way of playing the markets for reasons which I think we all know. My only negative on it is that most SB firms don't cover every bet on the market, when there are equal amounts of buyers and sellers, they simply make their money on the spread. Most only start covering themselves when there's an imbalance, and it is very true that they make more when there are more loosers than winners. This does mean that it makes sense for them to manipulate the market to hit their own clients stop losses, ie to make more clients lose than win.
In theory this is elf destructive for them as if their punters are all loosers, they won't be with them for long, however, 2 factors come in here:
1) Punters are often addicted and carry on, and on, and on... loosing more and more.
2) The business principal of 'there's a fool born every minute' apples, ie, there's a constant new stream of new punters signing up.
Good luck!

snikmij 06 Aug 2010 , 12:46pm

I tried the cfd demo account with halifax and using the examples on the web pages tried it out.

The examples on the web pages I copied to a spreadsheet so I could calculate gains and more importantly losses.

Problem when using the demo account was that gains and losses did not match to well, most cases I was out by 10's of pounds by my spreadsheets, oddly the numbers I originaly input did not match either.

It was a useful exercise, sometimes I made fantasy money other times I didn't. For me it was to hit and miss, so while useful and interesting its definitely not for me.

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