Thank Goodness Buffett Has His Credibility Back

Published in Investing Strategy on 29 July 2009

At least one of Buffett's big bets from last year is paying off. The lessons are clear.

It's ironic that it took a short-term gain for some to reassess long-term-focused investing guru Warren Buffett.

On Friday, The Wall Street Journal's Deal Journal blog posted this headline: "Buffett Regains His Cred With Goldman Surge." The headline refers, of course, to Berkshire Hathaway's $5 billion preferred stock investment in Goldman Sachs back in September.

The deal gave Berkshire $5 billion worth of preferred stock in Goldman that paid a whopping 10% annual dividend along with warrants to buy $5 billion in Goldman shares at $115 per share. With Goldman's share price over $160 today, those warrants are now worth more than $2 billion, and the preferred stock is still paying that sweet $500 million dividend.

How Buffett got his groove back

The investment in Goldman had some people suggesting that Buffett had lost his touch when the shares fell below $50 in November, while a similar investment in General Electric is still drawing some cockeyed looks because the common stock is trading at about half of where it was when he made the investment.

And that's to say nothing of some sniggers over his bullish piece in The New York Times back in October -- which preceded another 30% drop in the US S&P 500 index between then and March.

The Deal Journal's headline, however, referred to a New York Post article about how successful Buffett's bet on Goldman has been. Still, I couldn't help but chuckle at the idea that Buffett had lost his credibility in the first place.

Not that I should be surprised. Most market commentators and many investing "experts" are so focused on the near term that they're ready to draw conclusions from every single frenetic spasm of the market.

But the idea of investing with an eye toward next month -- or even next year -- has rarely (if ever) been Buffett's modus operandi. Going against the grain has bagged him huge returns on investments like American Express and allowed him to take over companies like GEICO when they're selling on the cheap.

He also managed to miss out on massive losses such as those that came storming down during the dot-com bubble. The cool $44 billion in cash that he had set aside going into the recession has allowed him to go on a buying spree while share prices are depressed.

The lesson is clear

None of us really benefits from sitting around talking about how talented Warren Buffett is when it comes to investing. Luckily, we can benefit from learning how he has been so successful.

In the case of Goldman, Buffett did what he's always advocated -- investing in well-run companies with great brands and moats around their businesses, when they're selling at discounted prices, and then sitting on your hands and waiting for the market to come to its senses. Being able to buy preferred that common investors couldn't get their hands on certainly helped, but the core of the investment fits what he's long preached.

Despite the run-up since March, today's market is offering a good number of these Buffett-esque opportunities. In fact, Berkshire Hathaway itself -- which is trading under its typical 1.5-to-2 times book value -- may be one of them.

However, as smaller individual investors, we can also take advantage of the deals on many smaller stocks that would be of little interest to Buffett because of Berkshire's size. These smaller companies are often the best opportunities to capture outsized gains. With the market still so beaten up there are plenty of shares I've got my eyes on.

More on the economy and the markets:

> If you are looking to take advantage of the market's madness and want to find out the names of some great smaller companies trading at cheap prices, why not give the Motley Fool's Champion Shares premium stock picking service a free 30-day try? Click here for more details.

> A version of this article was originally published on Fool.com. It has been updated by Bruce Jackson, who has an interest in Berkshire Hathaway.

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Comments

The opinions expressed here are those of the individual writers and are not representative of The Motley Fool. If you spot any comments that are unsuitable hit the flag to alert our moderators.

otazell 29 Jul 2009 , 10:50am

the "bull***t in braces brigade"
[bibb]would snigger, it is a schoolboy reaction to something that is outside thier comprehension.
why is there not an index linked fund to Berkshire or Buffet? or have I missed one somewhere?

debtwagon 29 Jul 2009 , 2:11pm

The Fool is so sycophantic about Buffett it's sickening. No doubt Goldman "surged" because the market heard that Buffett had gone in, "so it must be alright". The Lesson is in fact, bullshit.

TMFJoker 29 Jul 2009 , 5:00pm

@otazell

There have been attempts at creating an index fund with 100% Berkshire shares but AFAIK those have been broken up.

There is a fund that *tries* to emulate Berkshire's holdings but that has not been particularly successful (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WSDVX&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=BRKa,BRKb)

Those attempts are the reason why you can by 'B' shares if you can't afford the $95,130 (£58,000) 'A' share price. BRK-B shares trade just north of $3,000 (£1,800) per share.

Here is a link to a FAQ about investing in Berkshire:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/27414-four-ways-to-invest-in-buffett-s-berkshire-hathaway

~Joker

jonesjeff 29 Jul 2009 , 10:25pm

Warren buffet never lost credibility in the eyes of any competent investor.

Given his outstanding track record, the only big downside risk I see is he's 78. Which means he has roughly a 50% chance of surviving for 10 years.

Terrapin1 30 Jul 2009 , 8:15am

Investing in crime has always paid. GS as architects of subprime, and who profited massively from it are criminals- see;
www.Goldmansachs666.com

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