You Can't Gamble Your Way Out Of A Stock Market Crash

Published in Investing Strategy on 15 April 2009

The vast majority of spread betters lose money, as Harvey Jones has discovered from personal experience.

If you would like to make money when all about you are losing theirs in a stock market crash, then you have probably considered financial spread betting.

And plenty of people have, with 30,000 punters opening a spread betting account last year hoping to cash in on share price misery. I was one of them. I don't know how the other 29,999 fared, but it turned out to be the fastest way I have found of consistently losing money since, well, the stock market crash.

Win big, lose big

I opened my account with IG Index. I have no complaints about its software or service, my problems began when I put my money down.

The thrill of spread betting is that you can make big winnings from relatively small movements in your chosen stock or index, and are free to close your bet at any time and bank your winnings. The danger is that if events move against you, your losses are quickly magnified.

I'm not a natural gambler, so I started low, betting either 20p or 50p per point, and decided to keep things simple, by betting on daily movements in the FTSE 100.

This was last October, and I thought that the stock market's insane volatility was a great opportunity, and help me offset the losses on my wider portfolio.

No dabblers!

The first lesson I learned was that you can't dabble, you really have to apply yourself. 

One morning I had a hunch that a collapse in Asian markets would trigger early morning chaos in the UK, and decided to "sell" the index and reap my rewards. But before I could place the bet, my girlfriend dumped our daughter in my lap and asked me to take her to nursery.

I charged back into the house 30 minutes later to find the FTSE down 400 points. At £2 a point (a big bet for me, but I was confident), that 'cost' me £800 in missed profits.

In despair, I decided to catch up by selling the index at £5 per point, but a brief rally triggered my stop-loss and I ended up losing £150 instead.

To make spread betting work, you have to prioritise it over your family, friends and day job. That's not healthy.

Lose, lose, lose, win, lose

You would think that when betting on something as simple as movements in the FTSE 100, the law of averages would dictate that you get it right at least half the time. But I didn't.

If I sold the index it rose, if I bought it fell. If I spotted a trend and jumped on it, it immediately reversed.

Psychologically, I wasn't up to it. I hated losing so much, that if I lost out by selling the FTSE I would immediately buy it, which is the fast-track to becoming a two-way loser.

Once, when trying to place a bet from abroad, I got my time differences wrong, and missed the first hour of the post-Lehman Brothers crash!

I was interested to read that only 20% of spread betters make money, according to Cass Business School, because that was my ratio. I lost on four out of five bets.

Doh!

Successful spread bettors among you (there must be some out there) may already be suspecting that my strategy was lousy, and it was. I was placing my bets on insufficient information. Too often, company or market news took me by surprise. Even if I called movements in the index correctly, I would still contrive to fluff it.

Stop-losses are for losers

One of the most useful spread betting tools turned out to be the most deadly -- for me anyway. Stop-losses are great in theory, because they set a limit on your losses, without placing any restrictions on your winnings.

Which would be fine if markets shot up or down in straight lines, but they don't, they zig-zag constantly, falling a little, rising a little, falling a lot, rising a little.

Again and again, a small movement in the wrong direction pinged my stop-loss, closed my bet and crystallised my losses. I could have countered this by setting a larger stop-loss, but then I would have been taking a greater risk.

Addicted

I did have the occasional good day, and then I felt like a Master of the Universe. But I invariably crashed back to earth next day in a panicky flurry of erratic bets.

With the pound crashing, I decided to spread bet currency pairs instead, sterling against the euro. Now that really was terrifying. The minimum bet was greater and the point movements faster. I was down £50 in seconds and falling fast, at which point I closed my bet in a panic.

I haven't spread bet since. Others have found the temptation harder to resist. A 2007 report by the Gambling Commission found that 15% of punters involved in spread betting had addiction problems, the highest rate for any form of gaming.

The only stop loss that really works

In the wrong hands (like mine), spread betting is to sensible investing what record producer Phil Spector is to gun control.

I'm told that more sophisticated investors than I have had some success using contracts for difference (CFDs) alongside more traditional direct investment in shares, but I'll just take their word for it.

In future, if I will stick to the old virtue of buying a good company at an attractive value, and holding it for the long term.

More from Harvey Jones:

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Comments

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smithy35 15 Apr 2009 , 11:22am

Spread betting is addictive and dangerous. They permit customers to 'invest' by credit cards, the are no overall deposit limits, and you can ruin yourself in a few hours. There was an article in the Times on 10 Aoril 2009 with an example of one IG Index customer who was left feeling suicidal:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/investment/article6072968.ece

Berware and take care. At least some of the spreda betting companies do not care where their business lesaves you and will seek to blame you without accepting any personal responsibility themselves.

miseryguts 15 Apr 2009 , 12:19pm

So your daughter lost you £800 ey?

You can use that when she's a bit older.

"Dad can I have a lift?"
"WHEN YOU PAY ME THE 800 QUID YOU LOST ME"
"Dad can I have driving lessons?"
"AS SOON AS I GET MY 800 QUID"
etc etc

800 quid well spent IMO.

mamamarkets 15 Apr 2009 , 2:43pm

Everyone has to pay their school fees some time or other. Maybe yours were too high first time around. And by the way CFDs are just grown up spreadbets - the margining and leverage are the same. See my trading do's and don'ts :

http://mamamarkets.blogspot.com/2009/04/trading-dos-and-donts.html

anothersaver 15 Apr 2009 , 3:04pm

Did I write this article ? May be not. Replace CFD with spread betting - that's my story.

supasap 15 Apr 2009 , 3:12pm

strictly speaking we are all trying to make money through the stock markets either "conservatively" by value investing or not so conservatively re spread betting etc...... but it is gambling all the same as there is nothing guaranteed ...... it is all up to one's risk strategy.... some people do make fortunes day trading and some lose their own and other people's money..... I have recently invested in the market and will do so again in the next few months as I believe the market will rise in the next couple of years and that belief is based upon the idea that people in the west simply can't hack a prolonged reduction in their standard of living and are resourceful enough to come up with new techniques and ideas to make money..... my belief but it is just a belief..... the doom and gloomers may be proved right but it doesn't look that way now

supasap 15 Apr 2009 , 3:12pm

strictly speaking we are all trying to make money through the stock markets either "conservatively" by value investing or not so conservatively re spread betting etc...... but it is gambling all the same as there is nothing guaranteed ...... it is all up to one's risk strategy.... some people do make fortunes day trading and some lose their own and other people's money..... I have recently invested in the market and will do so again in the next few months as I believe the market will rise in the next couple of years and that belief is based upon the idea that people in the west simply can't hack a prolonged reduction in their standard of living and are resourceful enough to come up with new techniques and ideas to make money..... my belief but it is just a belief..... the doom and gloomers may be proved right but it doesn't look that way now

CunningCliff 15 Apr 2009 , 4:10pm

Only after twenty years of investing did I turn to spread betting. I've been spread betting for two years now and have made a decent sum from it.

My advice would be:

1) Avoid betting on share indices. For most of us, this is a mug's game.

2) Choose your bet size correctly. The biggest mistake is to take a bet that is too large and costs too much when it goes against you.

3) If you use leverage (via SBs, CFDs or other derivatives), then you MUST have liquidity.

4) In other words, if you plan to spreadbet seriously, then keep lots of cash close at hand.

5) If you can't meet your margin calls (demands for more cash to fuel losing bets), then you can be closed out of a position immediately.

6) Expect spreadbetting companies to give you the runaround. They will do everything in their power to make you lose and, therefore, make them win.

7) In particular, watch out for short-term share-price spikes aimed at triggering stop losses. Market-makers do collude with SB companies to manipulate the market in this way.

8) Finally, watch out for margin rate changes. For example, the margin for one of my small caps tripled from 25% to 75%, which forced me to cough up £40k within days. If you can't meet this call, expect to be stopped out without mercy.

Cliff (Fool freelancer and shareholder)

hdag 15 Apr 2009 , 7:33pm

Hi Cliff having read your comments i am getting rather worried.I have just paid for an expensive course through a company called traders university and I know nothing about investing,I am willing to learn seriousley since this is or seems my only hope to mend my poor finances,so I hope I am not entering into a dangerous gamble rather than calculated investing protocols. I hope you and others can give me some advice now I am stuck having paid for it.

Thanks.

Heraclitusll 15 Apr 2009 , 8:02pm

You will not want to read this hdag - but - you should only bet with money you have and can afford to lose.
To try and mend your finances by spreadbetting would be very foolish indeed
I have been on the Traders' University pre course - and it looks easy doesn't it? But the real world and one's emotions prove otherwise
Best to cut your losses - but see what Cliff thinks

Jonesey12 15 Apr 2009 , 8:41pm

Thanks for the tip, miseryguts. Maybe that £800 was a better investment than I realised.

Blimey, Cliff, I gave up after losing a couple of hundred quid. You took a hit for £40k and were still standing? What a guy.

hdag: your instincts are correct, you are entering into a dangerous gamble. colin106 is spot on, I'm afraid.

Harvey Jones, spread betting casualty and freelance journalist

And Cliff is clever enough to only gamble money he can afford to lose. Phew!

hdag 15 Apr 2009 , 9:01pm

Thank you colin106 and Jonesey12,what I might do since I fully paid for it is to attend but not to hold any expectations since most of these places do not refund fees.If it proves real gamble then I am out of it.
I still would like to hear what Cliff would say to me.

Eric555 15 Apr 2009 , 9:07pm

How long does it take to be a successful plumber, doctor, architect? how long to get a professional qualification? how long to play sport for a living? So why should learning to spread bet or trade be any different? Presumably, if it were easy, then we'd all be doing it.

You have to plan it will take time. You have to learn how to do it (the comment in the article about stop-loss placement was crass)and you have to be disciplined. It is not reality TV and you will not become wealthy overnight.

Don't buy an expensive course, go to Amazon, persue the books and read the reviews. Then spend maybe £25. Make up your mind slowly but know why you reached the conclusion to spread bet and then become successful. It means you will have a system with good money management rules. Looking after your capital is a big part of spread betting and one that is rarely mentioned. No references to it at all in the article.

henrybenson 16 Apr 2009 , 12:35am

Hdag, I went to a similar course and shelled out a lot of cash for the privilege. I came away knowing nothing more than what I could have gleaned from various easily available websites or from the public library.

It is a big con and at the end of the course they will probably recommend a trading platform which nets them a commission so they can increase their profits even more.

Try and get out of it if you possibly can.

Jonesey12 16 Apr 2009 , 9:41am

hdag. if you still want to try, the good thing about spread betting is that you can start with a low price per point - IG let me start at 10p, although soon pushed it up to 20p.
Then you will see if your course paid off, without risking too much. But be careful....

Luniversal 16 Apr 2009 , 9:49am

Good piece, Cliff. One confession is worth ten exhortations. We feel your pain.

As a longtime investor who has literally never placed a bet in his life-- be it on index, row of coloured balls or sluggish animal-- it often strikes me that gamblers are really buying the excitement of uncertainty, not the possibility of profit.

They like playing Russian Roulette, but with their money rather than their lives. They're welcome, but it's nowt to do with investing.

luckystrike23 16 Apr 2009 , 10:50am

As regards people image that spreadbetting/CFDs are very risky, I disagree. Yes they are leveraged products, and Yes (!) you COULD lose more money than what is in your account, but they are best when used in a proper trading setup, with proper money management rules. e.g. when you have worked out ABC plc 1) target 2) stop loss and hence 3) risk-reward ratio, and 4) the amount of your account you are willing to risk e.g. 5%...you can work out how many shares to buy/bet.

Just because you can buy 33 times the amount of shares you can afford doesn't mean you should! Trading is about discipline!

http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/Spread-trading-faqs.html

smithy35 16 Apr 2009 , 12:01pm

Spredbetting/cfd's are the most risky types of gambling around. Online gambling itself has been proven to be addictive and hypnotic due to the method of delivery, internet, mobile phone.

Combined with the uncertainty and volatility of markets, the use of credit cards, human nature to chase losses, the fact that 4 out of 5 people lose, the speed with whivh losses can occur, the fact that even professional traders who work for banks for many years still get into problems, the lack of real risk warnings which set out all the former, the lack of tight regulation by the FSA, the whole thing is dangerous.

I am of the view that unless much together regulation is enforced the whole thing should not be marketed or permitted to be sold to retail investors. Trading is for traders, not for retail investors. Tax free profits are not of much use whyere most people lose, and based on the Times article above some neraly lose their lives.

Spread betting/cfd companies need to be held to the highest standards, which curretly they are not, otherwise stopped. And it is good that fool.co.uk is actually not talking up spread betting as a form of investing, as is nearky always the case elsewhere.

mfnb 16 Apr 2009 , 1:15pm

Hi All,
Having seen a son almost lose his mind to sb I
can fully endorse the serious and crippling damage
sb can inflict; similar to alchol, and drugs.

I think sb'ers break down into 2 groups.
The easy money, I feel lucky, "guessy" type; and,
the more dedicated, study charts, etc, group.
Both are, usually, on to a losing position by
definition. The first because of the house edge
(spread) and the second because emotions usually
over-ride mostly inaccurate, mis-leading, charts.

The answer? I am (was) an engineer who gets his
"fix" by making things work; It's only a challenge.
Although sh*t scared to bet, I have evolved a system to "call" it right 90%+ (and more) of the
time. (do I bet, yes; do I win yes; but not for
fun, it makes me sick!) Parasite?

I write to ask if anyone can suggest how I might
market my system as a service? (I don't need to
as I can win anyway, but others may like it.)

i.e. The responsibility of selling my system to ANYONE who COULD lose all their money is totally unacceptable to me. (simple persons or not)
Currently I am looking into a web site to some
how "suggest" the trades, without giving what I
think is called illegal advice; offers to trade?

Your suggestions would be welcome, thank you.
jt@swopzone.com

Sassyka 16 Apr 2009 , 5:15pm

Scotland on Sunday ran a Top Trader competition recently with each player having £2000 of virtual money to spend on CMG spreadbetting in a 1 month period with the winner getting £1000. 300 people entered. I'm a total newbie and although I started well, like the article said, whatever I bet on, it went the opposite way. I was left with £54 at the end of it. The 10th place holder had £2300, only making £300. The winner made £21,000 - a friend of mine whom I'd told about the comptetition. He'd spent 13 years investing in the Stock market so knew what he was doing. Still waiting for my commission though :-)

Spread-betting is seriously scarey biz if you dont know your stuff and it's your own mony that's involved.

castath 16 Apr 2009 , 8:58pm

It seems to me reading the article and comments is that the problem is irrational over trading and not spread betting per se.

Harvey even bemoans the loss of £800 due to his daughter on just a hunch that the Asian markets were to collapse. I think I can spot the problem here.

Maybe too many people see it as a 50/50 bet and think that by the law of averages you can't keep losing.

I also think people can't calculate the actual risk and only see the small stake they trade.

When I trade (and its only play money and very infrequent at the moment) I almost always spreadbet, unless you are intending to hold for the long term and receive dividends then why bother paying a buy and sell fee, tax, risk CGT and tie up cash savings in share certificates.

FWIW I too lose more than I win but that's because I still haven't properly mastered money management, I take profits too early and like Harvey I too am open to the occasional hunch as I begin to think I am better than what I am. I am aware of all these issues and they are being addressed.

BTW, Harvey, I appreciate your honest articles over the last few months.

Fingered 15 Sep 2009 , 12:23am

Nice update Cliff. :-) Traders should take great heed of this lesson. It's a free lesson and worth a lot of money £££ ! For sure brkrs and MM's are getting very agresssive on thier margin management to the point of ruthlessness- you will get closed out if funding headroom is adequate and margin calls are not met. Caught almost similarly myself. Equally watchout on the net positions of committments of traders balance between a) the small guys ((that's us folks) and b) the large speculators ( e.g. hedge funds etc ) and c) the the commercials ( eg industrials, farmers, suppliers, who usually get it right and are on the "good2 side of trading and get it right. So, going forewards, counter party risks come seriously into play wherebey if you are say "short" , and if the commercials are net short you oughta reasonably be ok, however if the big speculatives end of net short too , watchout cos' the risks increase that you won't get paid out. .The inverse is equally true for "long" positions.

Fingered 15 Sep 2009 , 12:28am

Oh by the way for the un-initiated. - 90% of investors loose. If you opt to play in the casino ame of highly leveraged products like CFD's and SB'.s you are not only statistically likely to loose money like the 90%, but you are also likely to do it more quickly and quite dramatically due to the leverage factor. If you want to play in the grown up playground, be prepared for the knocks and bruises.

Fingered 15 Sep 2009 , 12:37am

Only point Cliff i would disagree with is on trading indexes your point 1). This for me represents a better smoothed balance that represents the overall investment herd as an aggregate and easier to judge the direction of movements rather than going for individual stocks which can have too many individual specifics - a personal instrument choice. There always of course pro's and cons. :-)

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