Investors can now avail of increasingly sophisticated exchange traded funds, but it's important to pay attention to the details.
Investors are increasingly well catered for in the area of exchange traded funds (ETFs), and their commodity-focused stablemates, exchange traded commodities (ETCs).
Thanks to these products, it's now easy for small investors to take leveraged or short positions on some commodities, and I'd expect similar products to be available soon on equity indices, such as the FTSE 100, just as they are in US.
Leveraged ETFs
These are shares designed to rise or fall by a multiple of the daily movement of a particular index. For example, the ETFS Leveraged Crude Oil (LSE: LOIL) should change by twice the daily percentage change in the DJ-AIG Crude Oil Sub-Index -- if the index closes 1% higher at the end of the day, the ETF will be up by 2%. Gains and losses are magnified.
Short ETFs
These move in the opposite direction to the underlying index. ETFS Short Crude Oil (LSE: SOIL) should fall by 1% if the index rises by 1% in the day.
But there's a catch
So when that oil index fell by 8.3% over the two weeks to 6 March, the leveraged ETF should be down by 16.6%, and the short ETF should be up by 8.3%, right? Wrong!
The key word in the descriptions above is 'daily' -- the ETFs track pretty closely to their respective targets each day, but the fact that they track the daily percentage changes means that over time the results are different to what many might expect. In this case, using the straightforward ETFS Crude Oil (LSE: CRUD) ETF as a proxy for the DJ-AIG Crude Oil Sub-Index:
| Fund | 2-week performance |
|---|
| ETFS Crude Oil | -8.3% |
| ETFS Leveraged Crude Oil | -13.8% |
| ETFS Short Crude Oil | 11.9% |
In this case, both the leveraged and crude ETFs performed better than a naïve expectation of 2x or -x respectively, but under different conditions they would have performed worse. It's not just the start and end points that matter, it's also the routes the prices take to get there.
You can play around with scenarios on a spreadsheet, but the following fictitious example, where the index is flat at the end of five days, illustrates the point:
| Index | Daily change | Leveraged ETF (2x) | Short ETF (-x) |
|---|
| 100 | | 100.00 | 100.00 |
| 110 | 10.00% | 120.00 | 90.00 |
| 100 | -9.09% | 98.18 | 98.18 |
| 90 | -10.00% | 78.55 | 108.00 |
| 100 | 11.11% | 96.00 | 96.00 |
The index was unchanged at the end of the week, but because of its volatility during the week both the leveraged and short ETFs lost money.
I think it's great that investors have such a variety of tools easily available, but as with standard future-based ETCs you really need to read the label and understand what you're buying.
More on ETFs:
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