Danger! Unexploded ETF

Published in Investing Strategy on 10 March 2009

Investors can now avail of increasingly sophisticated exchange traded funds, but it's important to pay attention to the details.

Investors are increasingly well catered for in the area of exchange traded funds (ETFs), and their commodity-focused stablemates, exchange traded commodities (ETCs).

Thanks to these products, it's now easy for small investors to take leveraged or short positions on some commodities, and I'd expect similar products to be available soon on equity indices, such as the FTSE 100, just as they are in US.

Leveraged ETFs

These are shares designed to rise or fall by a multiple of the daily movement of a particular index. For example, the ETFS Leveraged Crude Oil (LSE: LOIL) should change by twice the daily percentage change in the DJ-AIG Crude Oil Sub-Index -- if the index closes 1% higher at the end of the day, the ETF will be up by 2%. Gains and losses are magnified.

Short ETFs

These move in the opposite direction to the underlying index. ETFS Short Crude Oil (LSE: SOIL) should fall by 1% if the index rises by 1% in the day.

But there's a catch

So when that oil index fell by 8.3% over the two weeks to 6 March, the leveraged ETF should be down by 16.6%, and the short ETF should be up by 8.3%, right? Wrong!

The key word in the descriptions above is 'daily' -- the ETFs track pretty closely to their respective targets each day, but the fact that they track the daily percentage changes means that over time the results are different to what many might expect. In this case, using the straightforward ETFS Crude Oil (LSE: CRUD) ETF as a proxy for the DJ-AIG Crude Oil Sub-Index:

Fund2-week performance
ETFS Crude Oil-8.3%
ETFS Leveraged Crude Oil-13.8%
ETFS Short Crude Oil11.9%

In this case, both the leveraged and crude ETFs performed better than a naïve expectation of 2x or -x respectively, but under different conditions they would have performed worse. It's not just the start and end points that matter, it's also the routes the prices take to get there.

You can play around with scenarios on a spreadsheet, but the following fictitious example, where the index is flat at the end of five days, illustrates the point:

IndexDaily changeLeveraged ETF (2x)Short ETF (-x)
100 100.00100.00
11010.00%120.0090.00
100-9.09%98.1898.18
90-10.00%78.55108.00
10011.11%96.0096.00

The index was unchanged at the end of the week, but because of its volatility during the week both the leveraged and short ETFs lost money.

I think it's great that investors have such a variety of tools easily available, but as with standard future-based ETCs you really need to read the label and understand what you're buying.

More on ETFs:

You can buy ETFs for as little as £10 using the Motley Fool Share Dealing Service -- it's absolutely free to open an account.

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Comments

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DeafEars 10 Mar 2009 , 7:06pm

Personally, I steer clear of ETFs as far as I know. This article comes from Denver and culled while on holiday last year in October.

STOCK FALLOFF UNCOVERS ETF FLAWS
BY ELEANOR LAISE
INDEXING & ETFs
In the upheaval of the past several weeks, many of the things that can go wrong with exchange-traded products did go wrong. Exchange-traded funds and exchange-traded notes generally offer cheap and easy access to parts of the market that might be otherwise inaccessible to small investors. But they also come with potential pitfalls.
ETFs, for example, don't always precisely track their benchmark indexes and ETNs come with some risk that the issuer; of these notes could default.
Such risks have been on display recently as everything from regulatory changes to bond-market turmoil posed challenges to the products. An ETF resembles a traditional mutual fund and an ETN is a type of debt security, but both products trade on an exchange like a stock.

BITTEN BY SHORTING BAN
The Securities and Exchange Commission's temporary ban on short sales of financial stocks caused troubles for the Short Financials ProShares (SEF), UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) and Rydex Inverse 2x S&P Select Sector Financial (RFN) ETFs, three funds designed to benefit when financial shares fall.
The ban, which took effect Sept 19, is scheduled to expire this week following the enactment of the financial-rescue legislation.
In a short sale, an investor typically borrows shares and sells them, hoping to buy them back later at a lower price. Rather than shorting stocks themselves, the Rydex and ProShares funds typically buy complex financial contracts that allow them to make bets against financial stocks. The firms offering these instruments generally short financial shares.
But the short-selling ban raised questions about the ETFs' ability to obtain these instruments, and the ETF providers decided to temporarily halt creation of new shares for these funds.

EFFECT ON EXISTING SHARES
Those moves also affected existing shares of the ETFs: When there's no fresh supply of ETF shares to meet any increased demand, the fund may trade at a price well above the value of its underlying holdings.
On Sept. 19, for example, the UltraShort Financials ProShares closed at a market price 16% above the value of its holdings, according to research firm Morningstar.
Such a premium benefits someone selling those shares but hurts a buyer. A big selling point for ETFs has been that they generally trade very close to the value of their underlying holdings.
The short-selling ban can also affect ETFs that make bets against the broad market, causing them to trade at slight premiums or discounts to the value of underlying holdings, says Paul Mazzilli, ETF analyst at Morgan Stanley. For example, some ETFS are designed to benefit when the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index falls, and financials account for roughly 15% of that index.

BOND-MARKET BLUES
Meanwhile, extreme uncertainty in the fixed-income market has caused bond prices to behave erratically and made trouble for bond ETFs.
The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG), for example, hit a closing price more than 8% below the value of its holdings on Sept. 17, according to Morningstar, while the closing price of PowerShares High Yield Corporate Bond (PHB) was 5.5% below the value of its holdings.

ETN UNCERTAINTY
Recent events have also highlighted the credit risk involved with ETNs. Unlike ETFs and other funds, ETNs don't give investors ownership in a portfolio of securities. Rather, these notes are unsecured debt of the issuer, which typically promises to deliver a return tied to the performance of a market benchmark.
Lehman Brothers Holdings, which offers a family of three ETNs, filed for bankruptcy protection three weeks ago. Now, investors in those notes are “just in line with other unsecured creditors,” says Scott Burns, director of ETF analysis at Morningstar. Given that trading in the ETNs had sunk to virtually nothing before Lehman's bankruptcy, however, it's doubtful small investors were seriously hurt, Mr Burns says.
“It's always important for investors to know what they're really buying,” Mr Burns adds.
In many exchange-traded products, he says, “it's a benefit that you get access to hard-to-reach asset classes, but the cost of that is you have to take on incremental risk to do it.”

jonesjeff 10 Mar 2009 , 8:21pm

Any large bank that can offer long ETFs & short ETFs in the same commodity & have a diverse base of customers must be onto a winner.

If they sell 15 million Long FTSE100 ETF & 10 million Short FTSE100ETF, then surely they can just park the "paired" 10 million in a interest earning bank account & also collect the 2 0.5% management fees? The remaining 5 million can be invested in FTSE100 stocks.

lotontech 11 Mar 2009 , 6:16pm

Picking up from the sentence "Thanks to these products, it's now easy for small investors to take leveraged or short positions on some commodities, and I'd expect similar products to be available soon on equity indices, such as the FTSE 100, just as they are in US."...

I found this FTSE-100 SHORT ETF:

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/NR/rdonlyres/0AA3B0F8-FA0E-4187-BB45-2FFBFCDE3979/0/dbxtrackersFTSE100SHORTETF.pdf

-----
Tony Loton, Financial Author and Publisher


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