Things You May Have Missed Last Week

Published in Investing Strategy on 28 April 2008

For his final salvo, David Stevenson tries to be a bit more cheerful...

Sadly, this looks like being the last of these little round-ups, unless one of the other writers here takes on the job, because I'm off to pastures new.

That probably means that The Fool swing-o-meter will now turn in a rather more bullish direction. Which will no doubt provide some blessed relief for those readers who are completely fed up with all the unremitting doom and gloom I've been peddling since the credit crunch kicked off.

So this time, for a change, I'll try to be a bit more cheerful.

Though not straightaway. Exactly two months ago I penned a piece about Rentokil Initial (LSE: RTO) , describing the woes in the company's City Link courier division which was failing to deliver the goods.

At the time, action was being taken by the company to reverse the "unacceptable" slide in performance, as Rentokil warned that the courier might do no more than break-even for 2008.

Then a week ago, more from the rat catcher.

It now appears that the problematic parcel business is now set to produce a "greater than anticipated operating loss of £16.9m" for 2008's first quarter.

And though £10m of the reported deficit is down to non-recurring costs, and a new senior management team has been installed at City Link to sort out the mess, the division is now expected to report a "significant full-year loss".

Whilst the share price was largely unmoved on the news - it had, after all, nearly halved over the past six months - there were further calls for the break-up of the conglomerate from understandably unhappy investors. For the moment, the board is denying any disposal plans. But for how long?

Following my Square Mile job loss comments last week, now ratings monitor Moody's is gushing gloom with a warning that the London business districts of the City and Canary Wharf are facing "imminent stress".

The credit rating agency reckons the London office market is deteriorating faster than any other European capital, and that both occupancy levels and rents are ready to drop.

'Fraid that's what happens when you put all your eggs in the financial sector basket. Or maybe not quite all...there's still a bit of manufacturing left. And industry body the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) says that the credit crunch hasn't stopped 57% of its members raising money when needed.

The BCC survey of 250 companies also paints a relatively cheery picture of the state of the small firms "who make up the backbone of the British economy".

Director General David Frost continued: "If you lived your life in London, you would often be left with the impression the economy was about to fall off a cliff. From my visits around the country, I can assure you it is not."

Long may it remain so. Though I'm reminded of the aphorism that if you can keep your head when everyone else is losing theirs, it probably means you haven't heard the bad news yet.

Of course, rumour is the staple diet of share prices. Strange, isn't it, that in every deal someone is buying, and another is selling, yet both reckon they're right.

So here's a short tale to finish...

Albert Einstein dies and goes to heaven. At the gates, he's told his room isn't quite ready, and due to overcrowding he'll have to share with others in a dormitory for one night.

No problem, says Einstein, no need for a great fuss. So the doorman leads him to the dormitory and introduces him to the other inhabitants. "Here's your first roommate", says the doorman, "He has an IQ of 180!"

"Wonderful", says Albert, "we can discuss mathematics!"

"And here is your second roommate. His IQ is 150!"

"That's great too", responds Albert, "we can talk physics!"

"And this is your third roommate. His IQ is 100!"

"Brilliant! We can chat about the latest movies!"

Just then another man wanders over to shake Einstein's hand. "I'm your last roommate, but I'm afraid my IQ is only 70."

Albert smiles back at him and says:"Great to meet you. Now tell me, where do you think the stock market's heading?"

I'll get my coat. Over and Out.

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