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Bail Out Monday

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By David Stevenson | 21 April 2008

Another day, another bail out.

The Bank of England has finally released plans to swap government bonds for mortgage-backed securities, with the avowed aim of freeing up the UK home loan scene.

So many issues are raised by this latest case of government market involvement, it's hard to know what to address first.

Will it help mortgage lending recover?

Is it fraught with ‘moral hazard' (rewarding bank failings)?

Will it do any good, or even more harm than good?

But before trying to answer any of these, first let's look at the facts. Probably best, then, to start with the official statement.

The Bank kicks off by asserting that financial markets aren't working "normally" because of a US-initiated lack of confidence in mortgage-backed securities (MBS), particularly in the subprime area.

Leaving aside for a moment what constitutes ‘normality' - I would contend that the lending laxity of the last few years has been little short of insanity - what the Bank delicately describes as an MBS "illiquidity overhang" has made people very jittery.

In other words, the cash has dried up. Banks can neither sell their MBS holdings nor borrow against them. Hence 3-month LIBOR (the London interbank offered rate at which banks lend to each other) rising to nearly 1% more than official base rates.

But don't fret, says the Bank, nothing's gone wrong with these loans. It's just that the balance sheets of poor old British banks have got somewhat over-stretched, creating uncertainty and chopping back on their willingness to lend to you and me.

And now it appears that the "problems" won't go away and a "return to normal" isn't on the immediate horizon. No surprise to me, but perhaps I've rather more faith than the Bank in the market's ability to suss out how dodgy this debt really is.

So here's the Bank's answer to sorting out the ‘overhang'.

Not content with pumping ever more money into the system - since August, the Bank of England has upped the amount of central bank cash available to financial institutions by 42% - the thinkers of Threedneedle Street have gone a stage further.

The latest idea is the Special Liquidity Scheme which lets banks and building societies swap up to £50bn (or maybe £100bn?) of their illiquid assets for liquid Treasury Bills for up to three years.

Commercial banks will then be able to borrow against these Treasury Bills and...Hey Presto!...problem solved. Loads of largesse will now be sloshing round the bankers' parlours, just waiting for us to wander in and sign up for a loan. Meanwhile, the long-suffering taxpayer, as ever, picks up the tab if the assets the Bank has swapped go pear-shaped.

Actually, that's not quite true. In my rant I'm in danger of getting carried away. 

In fairness, the Scheme should protect the public purse. In theory, banks will be stumping up much more valuable assets than the Treasury Bills they get from the Bank. If those assets depreciate in value, more will have to be put up or some of the Treasury Bills will have to go back. So it's not quite a free lunch. Unless the banks manage to con the ‘Old Lady' with what they swap.

But back to my three questions:

Mortgage volumes? I don't see these recovering much. Lenders will just say thanks to the Bank for bailing them out...but will carry on cleaning up their loan books as before. In short, unless you're a ‘prime' borrower, don't expect a better mortgage deal.

Moral hazard? Yes, without a doubt. Governments don't exist to bail out imprudent bankers (or borrowers). Anyway, why should British taxpayers' money be put at risk (yet again?)

More harm than good? Just because the Americans have tried this doesn't mean it's a good idea. Government distortion of market pricing is almost always bad news. This is no exception.

Comments

The opinions expressed here are those of the individual writers and are not representative of The Motley Fool.

At 04:58 on April 22 2008, brunobare said:

The following quote sums it up well ... " We have privatised bank profits and nationalised bank losses". It is a scandalous mis-use of taxpayers money, with all the risks and none of the benefits passed on - and with no assurance it will even work to make cheaper loans available. In any case cheap loans have been a major contributor to an over-inflated house market for years ... it is long overdue to correct and these ill-conceived delay tactics only make the inevitable even harder to swallow when the 'piper has to be paid'. But who will pay the piper? For now - you and me - the ever-suffering and mostly ill-informed and mislead taxpayer.

At 06:50 on April 22 2008, HarryFarnsbarns said:

David,
your analysis is in keeping with many others I've read over the past days. But (like many others) you don't proffer any alternative (better?) solutions. Me, I'm just one of the ever suffering and mostly ill-informed and mislead taxpayers.
Happy days!

At 07:51 on April 22 2008, Idontwanttobecon said:

And, btw, I am pretty sure that the banks will dump on the government the worst part of their bonds... it means nearly 20.000 pounds more debt for every family in Britain... that it will shows as more taxes...

At 08:06 on April 22 2008, Hitman101 said:

Frankly all I see banks doing is using these so called loans as handouts to pad out dividends until the market stabilises - What guarentee do we the public who is effectively footing the bill, that these financial institutions will be forced to use the funds for what they are intended. I would also like to see an end to voluntary codes of conduct - it does not matter what or who signs up to these codes - at the end of the day as long as businesses are left to their own devices they will continue to abuse their position, take unwarrented risks, pay rediculous salaries packages and bonuses to senior staff (while laying of regular staff) and rip off the consumer. I think the time has come for stern controls over what such institutions are allowed to do need to be introduced, and the penalties for abuse should also be serious enough to act as a deterent. Why not force all financial institutions to have existing and new products including terms and rates validated by an independant authority before they can be sold.
Also given the fragile state of the market and the risks that some banks may fail or weaken to the point that they may be taken over, it seems appropriate to ask that all such institutions should make investors and account holders aware on a regular basis the current state of the business and what risks/protection the client has including protection provided by FSA in a statement, e.g. where FSA covers investments in one Bank Group to a value of 35,000, a statement should show the investor/account holders total holdings regardless of the which subsidury the investment is with. That would allow people to shift funds for maximum protection.

At 08:43 on April 22 2008, hightable said:

They are printing money and we all know what happens when they do that.

At 08:50 on April 22 2008, shrekmeister said:

I don't remember Brown the Clown and his Treasury cronies at the BoE bailing out the Telecom's sector when it got into trouble in 2000/1.....

I say the best approach is to let market forces take control, and then once the banking market and the unwise borrowers have felt the pain, perhaps they will learn a lesson for a short while, until unfettered greed takes over again.

At 08:52 on April 22 2008, Terrapin1 said:

I have emailed my MP who agrees with us all -this is a disgrace. The banks have cheated us out of billions,with unfair charges,and p****ed on their own banking code- they are pigs of the lowest order, and have turned their staff into an army of sales people. I have first hand experience of how low the banks will stoop,and their position is indefensible.This largesse is propping up the stock market-more Bolly and caviar anyone?

At 09:15 on April 22 2008, njleaton said:

The problem is that it won't work. The rates are too penal, and the banks will be vary sparing in their use of the facility. It does put a lower bound on the price of this debt.

The consequences are that the base rate to libor spread will remain high, and mortgages will be hard to come by, plus being expensive.

As for bailing the banks out, people need to realise what are the consequences of not doing nothing.

A bank going bust would mean real losses for savers, real pain for borrowers and not just for the bank concerned. The company for which you work would have its loans called. Without other banks stepping in you could very easily lose your jobs.

People have had 10 years of cheap loans. The bill has now to be paid.

Nick

At 09:25 on April 22 2008, abrahamisaacs said:

It seems there has been too much lending at cheap interest rates for too long. Although this has buoyed the economy for the past ten years or so. Government, Bank of England and Fed Reserve action to maintain liquidity and keep interest rates low is aimed at short term voter feel-good but will only create a bigger market correction in a few years' time. A better strategy now would be to increase interest rates, allow borrower pain, allow house price correction, reintroduce bank liquidity through savings rather than government bailouts. But I very much doubt Browne will have the political courage those actions would require.

At 09:27 on April 22 2008, Terrapin1 said:

There is NO chance of any banks going bust-they have plenty of assets,which they are at liberty to sell. There are NO sub prime mortgages in the UK banking sector. There is some poor quality unsecured lending-I have said it before-it's a trust issue,which is why LIBOR is so high. We're awash with money,but devoid of morals.

At 09:53 on April 22 2008, snohj4811 said:

Will this move not just fuel the debt crisis? Joe public will still want their bigger homes and they will still want to spend, spend, spend. The Banks have given out mortgages and loans regardless of peoples ability to pay, so have the retailers. One can argue that Banks have activily encouraged free spending. Is it not time for the people of this country to wise up and stop over spending. Hire purchase used to be a dirty word in the 1950's and '60's, now the reverse is the situation. Where will it all end?

At 10:10 on April 22 2008, TheLoneVoice said:

I have a question that I haven't heard anybody ask yet, it goes like this:
If this whole crisis is down to banks selling each other doggey CDOs containing far greater portions of sub prime debt than the buyer realised, then why dont they sue the seller for miss representing the product being sold? or more specificaly, before a tranch of CDOs are sold they obtain a risk or credit rating from one of the rating agencies such as Standard and Poor, now the strange thing here is that S&P are invited to rate the the CDO by the issuing bank,not the purchaser, they give it a AAA rating meaning that it should be free from the risk of default and therefore safe to buy for risk adverse investors, THE ISSUING BANK then pays S&P and moves on to the next tranch hoping to find another sucker and again gets it rated by an agency. It has become clear that the rating agencies did little new work when issuing ratings for these products, instead they used old data on default rates and got it hoplessly wronge- so why arnt the purchasers of these CDOs sueing the rating agencies- worse still why are the issuing banks rating thier own products? surley due diligence requires any buyer to undertake thier own assement of the product being purchased- can you imagine buying your next house and relying soley on a survey report done buy the seller themselves or buying your next car with an MOT done by the seller "honest mate, she's as saaafe as aouses,that wheel 'anging off is the latest fashion, nuffing to worry about

At 10:10 on April 22 2008, laislapequena said:

What a cheek. Not content with the highest taxes in living memory, the government are now about to hedge the money they have gleaned in taxes from HARD WORKING HONEST PEOPLE and bet on the banana skins of irrestponsible lending and irresponsible borrowers. Why don't the banks do the right thing and offer better rates of interest to entice savers to put more money through their doors instead of propping up the irresponsible side of our society. If this latest scheme falls flat on it's face, who picks up the tab? Yep, the taxpayer yet again. I have no sympathy for overstretched borrowers or overstretched lenders. Charity begins at home, put your own house in order first!

At 10:19 on April 22 2008, Hardtruth said:

The duplicitous fingerprints of Brown & Darling are all over this self serving gesture. These empty suits would be well advised to keep away from the market force which will just swat them away.

At 10:41 on April 22 2008, sam20son said:

Reading all the posts so far, it looks like there is a general consensus that things are bad and they are probably not going to get better any time soon. So my question is what can I do - as a responsible tax payer who has diligently squirrelled money away for a rainy day, always used my ISA allowance, not got big credit card bills and not borrowed irresponsibly - to protect my little nest egg from being destroyed?
Should I convert it all to gold and stuff it under the bed? Seriously, what practical advice do you guys have?

At 10:52 on April 22 2008, Cleggie189 said:

Surely the Bank of England (BoE) is the "lender of last resort" - ie it is there to ensure liquidity if the market fails. This is something I learnt in my Economics degree 20 years ago - and I don't see the problem with the bail out - the BoE is just doing its job.

However, the banks do need "reining in" as they have recklessly lent too much to too many over the past years.

"Neither a borrower nor a lender be..."

At 11:08 on April 22 2008, hojo1010 said:

The poor banks have no money to lend us but can of course pay themselves large bonuses every year. Apparently Mr Diamond (Barclays) will get a bonus of over £14 million this year (over £7 million in cash). £14 billion of bonuses paid to the upper echelons of the city but a begging bowl to the Treasury (taxpayer). But in fact the banks have the government over a barrel. Give us the money or see the housing market collapse - and you know what happened to the Tories in the 90’s after double digit interest rates and the ensuing negative equity. The electorate never forgave them and thus we have an even more arrogant, self serving, corrupt and incompetent government who will sell the country down the drain rather than lose power. Thus the “feel good” factor has to be preserved at all costs mainly through the ever rising value of property maintained by excessive money supply and low interest rates..

Whose fault is it? The Government and Banks for making us believe that money grows on trees and there is a limitless supply of credit available at knock down rates or ourselves for being ignorant and/or greedy enough to believe them. Money supply in double digits year after year when GDP+Inflation(RPI) totals about 7% has avoidable consequences - Asset bubbles, Inflation and Currency depreciation. I’m sad that Merv has buckled to political pressure (since when was the MPC politically independent?) and joined the lets print more money and lower rates brigade when this is exactly the cause of the problem and the required remedy is exactly the opposite. Yes it means a lot of pain but it would enable the country to recover in the long term. Instead we have short term political expediency which simply puts off the problem and will result in an even more catastrophic collapse a few years hence to the detriment of our children and grandchildren.

An economy so reliant on the value of houses is farcical. As soon as the rate of increase ceases to be double digits and the interest rate goes over 5% you would think the end of the world was nigh. The government may have abandoned fiscal prudence many years ago but that does not mean that the population should nor that they should expect the government to bail them out. The same applies to the irresponsible banks, building societies and credit card lenders. We need to live within our means and the government needs to spend with the means of the country. Monetary tightening is required and interest rates should go up to fight the terminal disease called inflation. Otherwise Zimbabwe here we come!

At 11:11 on April 22 2008, laislapequena said:

My practical advice for sam20son would be to carry on saving but spread the money around between banks, don't put too much in one bank. I think the government covers the first £32000 pounds in your account if the bank fails but I'm sure one of the Fool community will correct me on this if it's wrong, so check which bank owns which other banks and use only one from the same family. Also, now I'm not 100% sure about this, but you also need to ensure the banks you are putting your money into are registered as an individual entity as some banks are registered together under one umbrella, there was an article about this on the Fool a couple of weeks ago. So if you have money in two banks and they are registered individually, you should get all your money back, however, if the two banks are registered under one name, you only qualify for one lot of money from one bank. I'm sure someone on here can clarify that. It's always also a good idea to spread your money around in different areas. I.e. ready cash in an isa, shares (again, diversify, i.e. spread the money you invest into shares over several companies/sectors), bonds etc. I also like to have property, desireable stuff not the cheap stuff, which can be made liquid in case of any lean times. So my property is made up of bricks and mortar (non mortgaged), gold (coins and bars are best, not jewellery), I have also invested in a couple of prized signature guitars although this is my own personal choice and I'm sure most people would be a bit sceptical about that, and my wife likes specific pieces of pottery (good stuff not the cheap local market stuff). In short, spread it around, don't put all your eggs in one basket then if one fails, you don't lose the lot.

At 11:32 on April 22 2008, BAT5 said:

There is no doubt that the banks have bought this on themselves with their greed. Some years ago I got into some financial dificulties, partly due to my own foolishness but mainly due to the Banks greed. I am now solvent with a 60% mortgage but am still deemed sub prime by the banks and cannot get a deal. Why??? If I default there is plenty of collateral in my property so the bank will not loose out. Its just greed. Now they want bailing out by the taxpayer!!!!

At 11:52 on April 22 2008, hojo1010 said:

The problem with your solution laislapequena (re. sam20sam)is that interest rates on most instant access savings a/c's. is negative. Rates of 6% gross (4.8% net 20% tax) is less than the real rate of inflation (and no-one in their right mind believes the Governments inflation figures) for most of the population and thus your savings are depreciating. This is the way governments and central banks thieve your money.
Physical assets such as Precious Metals, Oil and Agriculturals can help protect your savings against inflation but beware Gold which governments and Central Banks hate because it is a threat to their ability to endlessly print fiat money and thereby control the world economy. There is much evidence that the price of Gold has been manipulated for many years. Hopefully, because I hold both Bullion and PM Mining Stocks, their ability to control the price will be swamped by the rush to get out of paper(fiat) currency and into real assets as global inflation ramps up. Bullion is easy to buy on competitive terms from BullionVault, PM, Energy and Agris on the stockmarket and even PM coins although the premium on these is quite high. Paper money is at risk both from inflation and bankruptcy but as suggested spread it around to avoid the latter. Of course the savest place for paper is in Northern Rock - guaranteed safe by the government - that's how crazy the government's inteference in the monetary system has become. Of course everyone is now demanding even more government control,you're being conned!, we need less government control, eventuallly market forces will prevail regardless of government inteference. What we really need is responsible government that doesn't allow/instruct the Treasury to endlessly print money for political expediency. If you supply banks with lots of money they need to circulate it into the economy (doing this responsibly is difficult if the supply is excessive). After all it would be silly if not downright negligent if they simply put it their vaults and watched it depreciate.
I have little regard for the banks but the real blame lies with the Government!

At 09:26 on April 23 2008, banger71 said:

Why can't we just stick with the 30K government guarantee for savers that's been there for years and let the banks go under? It would be much fairer - most people would get their money back under that and those that didn't aren't that poor and should have spread their cash better between different providers!

At 11:37 on April 23 2008, LastChip said:

Perhaps when (if) the banks do some "reining in", they can apply it to the obscene salaries paid to their directors, who after all, are ultimately responsible for this mess.

It's amazing how everyone else is supposed to pick up the tab!

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