Don't Bank On Interest Rate Cuts

Published in Investing Strategy on 21 November 2007

Slowflation warnings - slowing growth and rising inflation - have just been issued by two major business surveys.

More warnings of imminent Slowflation - slowing growth and rising inflation - have been issued by two new major business surveys.

Although the expansion in manufacturing output is likely to slacken, prices are set to rise in the next three months, according to the latest CBI report.

And today's Bank of England's Agents' Summary cautions that despite a raft of indications that the UK economy is losing steam, significant retail food price increases are in the pipeline.

So for the moment, interest cuts are on the back burner.

The November industrial trends survey from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) shows that the 21% net balance of manufacturers saying that prices will rise next quarter is the joint-second highest since 1995.

Though slightly lower than May's 12 year high (a +25% balance), the same figure was recorded in March and flags a return to the climate of strong price pressures that had seemed to be easing off.

The Bank of England Agents' Summary, which gives a UK business snapshot from around 700 companies across all sectors of the economy, confirmed that though the price of goods leaving Britain's factories was little changed last month, input costs rose, suggesting inflation pressures in the system.

And though the Agents reported further falls in consumer price inflation, driven by high street discounting, they expect to see some significant increases in retail food prices on the menu.

Wage growth could also prove a problem. The Summary saw total labour costs continuing to climb faster than government data suggests.

Yet paradoxically, the feedback from both surveys is that the UK economy is slowing.

Consumer spending growth, business services activity, service sector investment intentions, demand for housing and also house price inflation have apparently all eased further since last month's Bank Agents' report.

The CBI said that although the balance of companies reporting order books above normal was a still positive 8%, with export demand holding up OK, the 9% net level of firms forecasting an output increase in the coming quarter is the lowest for a year and well below February's +28% peak.

All manufacturing sub-sectors have seen a slowdown in expected output growth since the start of the year. Though this has been less severe amongst consumer goods producers, the flip side is that a net +38% balance of the latter felt able to raise their prices, a significantly higher proportion than for capital or intermediate goods manufacturers.

Last month's quarterly overview recorded the highest expectation of input cost rises in 12 years, according to the CBI, commenting that: "With $90/barrel oil, up more than 50% in a year, plus other rising commodity costs, manufacturers operating on tight margins clearly feel they have little choice but to raise prices."

Following a Citigroup/YouGov study earlier this month indicating that the British general public's inflation expectations for the year ahead remain at 2.6%, the highest since January, there is every reason for concern amongst credit crunched consumers about the rising cost of living.

It also emerged today that the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee voted for no base rate change last month by a 7 - 2 majority.

With the Pound Sterling now in retreat against all major currencies bar the plunging US dollar, the idea of near term cuts in benchmark loan costs looks increasingly fraught with danger.

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