A low P/E, growing dividends and booming buybacks says this market is a buy.
Here are three reasons why I think this market is a buy:
1) Low P/E: At 5,820, the FTSE 100 is valued at just 12 times earnings. Prior to recent weeks, the last time the market traded at such a low multiple occurred during 1990!
Indeed, base rates and gilt yields were about 10% back then. But with base rates and gilt yields now below 5%, I feel today's earnings yield (i.e. the inverse of the P/E) of 8.3% looks much more attractive. In fact, I reckon the current relationship between the market's P/E and gilt yields is the most attractive for share buyers for at least twenty years!
2) Growing earnings and dividends: It's not as if Britain's biggest businesses are struggling either. FTSE statistics suggests blue chips have on aggregate improved their earnings by a whopping 33% during the past twelve months:
| Date | FTSE 100 | P/E | Yield | Earnings (FTSE 100 points) | Dividends (FTSE 100 points) |
|---|
| 11 Aug 2005 | 5,359 | 14.8 | 3.17 | 363 | 170 |
| 11 Aug 2006 | 5,820 | 12.1 | 3.22 | 483 | 187 |
| | | | | |
| Change | +9% | | | +33% | +10% |
Though buoyant commodity prices have no doubt helped profits at heavyweights such as BP
(LSE: BP.)
, Royal Dutch Shell
(LSE: RDBS)
and Rio Tinto
(LSE: RIO)
, a 10% overall dividend improvement suggests underlying blue-chip progress remains healthy. Supporting the optimism, only one FTSE 100 interim dividend declared since the end of June -- that of Lloyds TSB
(LSE: LLOY)
-- was held. All the others were raised!
3) Booming buybacks: Blue-chip companies continue to generate excess cash over and above their dividend requirements and buy back their shares in grand fashion. After reading 41 blue-chip interim results published during July and August, I reckon buybacks totalled approximately £11b in the first half of 2006. As well as the major oil and mining groups, notable buybacks also occurred at AstraZeneca
(LSE: AZN)
, GlaxoSmithKline
(LSE: GSK)
and HBOS
(LSE: HBOS)
. Full-year repurchases totalling something like £22b imply a 'buyback yield' of 1.5% -- and a significant 4.7% 'excess cash yield' when added to the market's current 3.2% dividend yield.
What now?
Here's what I think you should do:
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Maynard contributes regularly to a FTSE 100 index tracker and owns iShares FTSE 100, an exchange-traded fund that tracks the FTSE 100. Maynard also owns shares in GlaxoSmithKline.