Cash Windfall For Apple Inc. Shareholders?

Published in Company Comment on 12 February 2013

Legal action could spur higher distributions from Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL).

With some luck, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL.US) shareholders could be in for a cash windfall.

Activist hedge fund Greenlight Capital is taking legal action over the company's massive cash pile. It piles pressure on the company to return dormant cash to shareholders. Apple could boost its current share buy-back programme, increase its dividend, or give away preferred stock to ordinary shareholders.

A nice problem to have

Apple's is a nice problem to have: it's generating cash faster than it can use it. So its cash mountain is growing: $137bn, or $145 per share at the last count. That's over a quarter of the current share price.

Apples' growth has slowed from its former days, and it has become such a big cash machine that it just doesn't have enough investment projects to spend its money on. Goldman Sach's analysts reckon it generates a free cash flow yield of around 10%. That's what's available to pay dividends. Investors only receive a modest 2% yield, and the rest adds to the pile of spare cash.

Apple has been squirreling much of this money away in overseas tax havens. About 70% of the funds are held offshore, and would incur tax charges if taken back into the US. At some point it would make distributions expensive.

Clever wheeze

That's where Greenlight's clever wheeze comes in. Last year it suggested Apple should distribute $50bn of perpetual preferred shares to existing shareholders, at no cost. The preferred stock would yield 4% a year, in line with Microsoft's 30-year debt, and be separately tradable.

It wouldn't involve any distribution of cash: in effect it would be leveraging up Apple's strong balance sheet. It's a bit of financial wizardry but not one that would put the company in any danger, with the preferred stock coupon costing just $2bn a year.

Greenhill thinks that the company could distribute several hundred billions of dollars of such stock, worth hundreds of dollars per share.

Or not so clever

The financial trick is that the perpetual stock, if it were to yield 4%, would effectively be valued on a price-to-earnings multiple of 25. That only works if investors believe Apple will be around for eternity (more or less, depending on your choice of discount rate), and interest rates won't rise too much in that time.

Apples' directors rejected the proposal and at this year's annual meeting plan to abolish preferred stock from the company's charter. Greenlight's law suit simply aims to stop the company bundling this issue up with a couple of other resolutions.

But with the spotlight on its cash pile, Apple said last week that it would look at ways to return cash to shareholders. The shares promptly rose by 3%. The bottom line is that there is value in Apple's balance sheet that the market is currently discounting.

Value or growth?

Greenhill Capital is a value-driven hedge fund with $6bn under management. That's a different league from Warren Buffett's $75bn, but there's one similarity: Greenlight's performance has been impressive, with a near 20% p.a. return to investors since its foundation in 1996. It's one of Apple's top 100 shareholders, and Apple is its biggest single holding.

That this pressure is coming from a value investor speaks volumes about how Apple's business has matured. To such investors, the core value in the company lies in the 'ecosystem' of integrated technology that has a loyal fan base.

But other investors put more weight on Apple's ability to innovate and disrupt existing technologies. That's what powered its share price up from $3.28 to $700 between 2003 and 2012. It won't repeat that achievement, but concepts such as Apple TV, or wearable technology – the Apple smart watch – could see the company enjoy another growth spurt.

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Not only has it great growth prospects, but like Apple it has strong cash generation and there could be considerable value that isn't reflected in the share price. To discover the identity of this company, you can download a free in-depth report just by clicking here.

> Tony owns shares in Apple but no other shares mentioned in this article. The Motley Fool owns shares in Apple.

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Comments

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vinchainsaw 12 Feb 2013 , 12:48pm

Great article Tony.

Its interesting to note that, future growth aside, there is an enormous amount of untapped value that can be unlocked simply by changing the capital structure of the company today. No forecasts, just a change in capital structure and a lowering of the WACC will unlock an enormous amount of money.

It's silly to be cashflush and generating 10% returns when you can lend money at 2% and issue prefs at 4%.

Unfortunately Oppenheimer, the current CFO, is known as a super-conservative money manager. Apple's 237bn is currently earning less than 1%.

Its interesting that Einhorn doesnt care about the cash pile thats sitting there. All he wants to do is leverage up future returns a little bit and use that money to return to shareholders.

Back of a fag packet calculations:
Should Apple to choose to allocate 25% of its current profits to pref shareholders at 4%, they would raise roughly $281bn ((45bn*25%)/4%). That's roughly $300 per share that could be returned to shareholders or used for share buybacks. Both will add value.

Apple common stockholders would then still be left with 75% of the revenues equating to c$34bn.
Applying the current PE of 7, gives a share price of $236.

Add on the cash of 145 per share and it should price at about $381, all else being equal.
But then there's still the $300 per share that was raised... so total value of $681 if 25% of profits are ring-fenced for pref shares.

Thats not taking into account the cash pile, future growth or anything of the sort - this is the value accretion simply for replacing common shareholders with pref shareholders.

If they did a 12.5% debt at say 2.5% and 12.5% pref shares at 4% the value generated would be even bigger.

You simply cannot solely use earnings metrics to compare a cashflush company with no debt with a debt-laden one.

This is as close to a value play as you'll ever see and, should Einhorn get his way, as close to a Private Equity transaction as you'll see in public markets.

There is a floor under this share that is significantly higher than the current price. All it needs is some common sense from Apple management to enact it.

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