Why I Love Halfords Group Plc

Published in Company Comment on 31 January 2013

One Fool remains bullish on Halfords Group plc (LON:HFD).

I guess it's debatable whether a year is a long time in the world of long-term investments. But for me, it certainly is. Simply because within the next couple of weeks, I celebrate the first anniversary of my first buy-to-hold stock. And I'm proud to say that that stock is Halfords (LSE: HFD).

According to some, this was a slightly odd choice for a first buy. It had had a topsy-turvy 2011, it was a retail stock and there were rumours of a potential dividend cut if sales continued to suffer. So why did I buy? Well, for two reasons, really, which intertwined quite nicely.

1) Buy what you know. As a self-confessed petrol head when I was (much) younger, I was a regular customer at my local Halfords, spending my hard-earned cash on everything from car stereos to wiper blades. And why did I choose to shop at Halfords? Well…

2) Halfords, in my opinion, is still the only recognised high-street brand that focuses on motoring and cycling products/accessories. For me, this gave it an edge on other retail stocks such as Next or Primark (owned by Associated British Foods), where there is a number of competitors competing for the same market share.

So, how has the year been? The share price has had some pretty dramatic fluctuations, dropping to 25% below what I paid for it, and then rising to a 15% gain around the time of the appointment of the new CEO, Matt Davies. And the recent interim management statement seemed relatively positive, too. Retail revenue was up a modest 0.1% but, more excitingly, revenue from Halfords' newly acquired Autocentres business was up over 12%. And, very importantly, shareholders received a solid dividend of 14p per share.

And for the future? Well, I expect more transition, but I remain bullish. There is clearly going to be a change in brand direction after the departure of the marketing director and advertising agency, which for me can only be a positive move in helping to find extra revenue. After the success of Sir Chris Hoy and co at the Olympic Games, I was hoping for the inspired British public to pump their cash into cycle sales, but this seemingly didn't happen. In fact, it seems cycle sales had actually dropped by nearly 2% this quarter.

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> Both Chris and The Motley Fool own shares in Halfords.

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Comments

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guykguard 31 Jan 2013 , 6:00pm

This article is reassuring to one who, on the recommendation of a large broker, paid too much for HFD. It is true that, if moat they have, it is the dearth of bricks & mortar competitors with a brand name that's worth a damn. For many people, HFD is the only show in town.
But there's a lot about them that makes me feel anxious. The staff do their best and are nice, but how is it possible to entrust such major assets to a bunch of people who manifestly don't have the knowledge or the skill set to manage them? (Much the same can easily be said, alas, about most retailers except the very big names.)
As even Mary Portas found, too many High Streets are doomed to charity shops and night shops. The shopping experience in out-of-town ex-industrial wastelands is simply soul-destroying. More and more people, including me, are getting rid of their car(s), raising the value of buying remotely. I'll hire a car or use a car share to visit a friend, but not to buy a car battery.
Most of what HFD sells can be bought over the internet more cheaply and more conveniently. HFD offers this service but it offers little or nothing that is different or better from many other providers.
To be sure that I'm not seeking to short HFD and talk it down, I trust the new MD to get HFD's act together. They can do it, but he and all his staff, from top to bottom, will have to get on top of their game and stay there. By no means easy but absolutely within their reach.

TMFMarkRogers88 31 Jan 2013 , 10:38pm

Firstly it's great to read an article about a stock which isn't popular in the eyes of the investing public, a good place to start when it comes to a "buy and hold", so I admire the bravery there.

I must offer a word of caution about "buy what you know" though. An investor might have an advantage over others if already a customer or a fan of the industry, especially in specialty retail (I know a lot of top investors who ask their wives and girlfriends what they think about the latest hot clothes retailers for example, holders of ASC and MUL vindicated in recent years!). But we shouldn't get carried away with this idea, as many may have found out in HMV, GAME, and other stores this year (where, likewise, there were few competitors in their specialty retail space). Peter Lynch was more an advocate of "know what you own" rather than "buy what you know", and crucially, this should only form a light part of our analysis.

While logic may suggest that HFD would be superior to the operations at NXT or ABF, the latter two are easily in the top 2% of companies on the London Stock Exchange when it comes to track record. Often if the pie is large enough, there are enough slices to go around. I worry that HFD's business is a difficult one.

That said, HFD enjoyed an acceptable record when the economy was in better shape, it might be that a cyclical improvement in consumer conditions helps to revive the company in coming years. I hope that is the case for investors here, and it might offer some comfort that Return on Equity and operating margins have been consistently strong.

However, out of the UK retail operations out there, I'd feel a lot happier owning a diversified company with an excellent track record, such as TSCO or MRW, both of which are on a superior earnings yield to HFD.

jrr774 01 Feb 2013 , 12:35am

I disagree with the internet argument - for one thing car accessories can be heavy and hence delivery charges negate the cost saving, and generally I imagine car users buy when there is a need - ie the car won't start and I've got to get to work tomorrow. I invested in HFD a while ago and although I'm slightly underwater it's a share I'm comfortable with, and given the amount of non discretionary spending it enjoys I believe it has something of a moat compared to other retailers. I think the move to offer learner drivers pratical tests and insurance is an excellent 'cradle to grave' initiative for future drivers needs. This plus the growth of the autocentre business means I'm happy to hold.

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