A preview of BP plc's (LON:BP) upcoming annual results.
Oil super-major BP (LSE: BP) (NYSE: BP.US) is due to announce its annual results on Tuesday this coming week (5 February).
At the time of writing, the shares of this FTSE 100 giant are trading at 476p -- barely changed from a year ago compared with an 11% rise in the Footsie.
How will BP's business have performed in 2012 compared with last year? And will the results justify the weak performance of the shares? Here's your cut-out-and-check results table!
| | FY 2011 | Forecast FY 2012 | Forecast FY growth |
|---|
| Sales | $376bn | $362bn | -3.7% |
| Earnings per share (EPS) | $1.36 | $0.88 | -35.3% |
| Dividend per share | $0.29 | $0.34 | +17.2% |
Revenue
BP has seen quarter-on-quarter declines in revenue through the first nine months of 2012, and analysts are forecasting more of the same in the fourth quarter.
| | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 (forecast) |
|---|
| Revenue ($bn) | 94 | 93 | 91 | 84 |
If analyst Q4 forecasts are on the button, revenue for the full year of $362bn will be down close to 4% on the 2011 number.
Earnings and dividend
BP has done EPS of $0.52 for the first nine months of 2012, which is 45% below the same period last year. However, analysts are expecting a stronger earnings performance in Q4, raising the full-year EPS to around $0.88 and moderating the year-on-year decline to around 35%.
BP cancelled its dividend payments in June 2010 following the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. When the company reinstated the dividend for Q4 2010, it did so at half the pre-spill level with the intention of growing the payout "in line with the improving circumstances of the company".
BP has paid three quarterly dividends so far for 2012, totalling $0.25 per share -- 19% ahead of the $0.21 declared for the same period in 2011. Analyst forecasts for a Q4 dividend of $0.09 would bring the full-year payout to $0.34, or around 21.5p in sterling. Note, though, that you won't get to hear the Q4 sterling dividend until March when BP announces the applicable dollar-sterling exchange rate.
Value
BP made good progress in 2012 by settling its Deepwater Horizon liabilities on a number of fronts, and by reaching an agreement that will shift its interest in Russian oil from a partnership with oligarchs to a stake in state-controlled Rosneft. Despite these positive developments -- on which you can expect to hear more in the upcoming results -- BP's shares have made no headway over the past year.
Based on a share price of 476p, and full-year forecast EPS in sterling of around 56p, BP is on a price-to-earnings ratio of just 8.5 -- well below the market average. The stock also offers a better-than-average dividend yield of 4.5%.
The oil super-majors are popular core holdings for many investors, and are currently trading on 'value' ratings. But if you fancy being a little more adventurous and want to learn about how to really strike it rich in the oil and gas sector, I recommend you download the Motley Fool's latest guide, "How To Unearth Great Oil & Gas Shares".
This free guide for private investors is available for a limited time only -- so do hurry if you want an intelligent assessment of an area of the market with the potential to give you truly spectacular returns. The guide can be in your inbox immediately: simply click here.
> G A Chester does not own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this article.
