Why I'm Seriously Thinking Of Buying Apple

Published in Company Comment on 25 January 2013

I've resisted for years, but now might be the time for me to buy Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL)

I'm not an Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL.US) fanboy. I don't like the 'closed world' of Apple's technology, and I've never bought one of its products. 

I did have an iPod Shuffle, when it first came out, but that was given to me. It was certainly impressively small and light. (So light, in fact, that I didn't notice it in a pocket, and it went through a complete wash cycle. Small and light it may have been, but waterproof it was not.)

But not liking a company's products is not necessarily a good reason not to buy the shares. I'm not wild about Coke, but I'd be very happy (and rather wealthier) if I'd bought Coca-Cola shares when Warren Buffett did.

I didn't buy Apple shares at the end of the 90s because I didn't think much about the company at all. At worst it seemed washed up -- at best it made niche products for trendy people and graphic designers.

When the iPod came out, I thought it'd also be a niche product for trendy people, and that the mass-market for such things would be seized by more mainstream electronics companies, such as Sony or Philips.

Ditto the iPhone. Surely a big player such as Nokia would easily dominate the smartphone market?

I didn't think that a company such as Apple -- a company that had come close to ceasing to exist, really, towards the end of the 90s -- could possibly become the world-bestriding colossus that it has. 

As the share began its upward trend under Steve Jobs, it always seemed that it just couldn't continue, and so I resisted buying. As Apple's  price climbed and climbed, my resistance to buying grew with it, because surely it couldn't go any higher. But it did, and I should be kicking myself. (But that wouldn't change anything and might hurt.)

And then Apple fell.

Plummeted might not be too strong a term. Closing at $450.5 last night, Apple is now a whopping 36% down from its peak of September 2012.

I reckon it's fallen too far for a company of this quality and growth record, and too far for a company with nearly $140 billion -- almost a third of its market cap -- in the bank. Irrational negativity about the company has taken hold and the sell-off has been too big. At its current price Apple is on forward P/E of under 9. That's just wrong.

And that's why I'm seriously thinking of buying Apple.

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> Jon doesn't own any shares in Apple.

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Comments

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vinchainsaw 25 Jan 2013 , 1:49pm

Similar boat to you Jon; I also dont particularly like Apple. I bought a bit before the earnings announcement and then a bit after. Might've been too early, but only time will tell.

Interesting fact - Apple are now adding more than a billion dollars a week to their cash pile.

Even assuming zero growth and very modest yields on their cash pile, the cash in Apple would reach their current market cap by 2017.
And thats assuming they dont put the cash to better use.

What then? Surely cash needs to come into the valuation at some point?

atalbot9 25 Jan 2013 , 2:28pm

Would be interesting to see a Fool review of the 4 tech giants (Apple, Google, Amazon, Samsung) + Microsoft.

The 1-day Apple drop was the same value as Microsoft's market cap!

BigJC1 25 Jan 2013 , 2:49pm

Apple seems to be responding to Newtons First Law. That would suggest that now it's in motion it has a lot further to fall !

LastChip 25 Jan 2013 , 4:01pm

The problem is, it no longer has a visionary in charge.

While I don't underestimate Tim Cooks ability, a company like Apple needs that something extra that one can't necessarily put into words (or a balance sheet). Steve Jobs, (love him, or loath him) did have it and I wonder who will emerge to take his place and even if it will happen at all.

Just as Microsoft has slowly failed to deliver since Bill Gates (hands on) departure, I worry Apple may go the same way.

People like that are truly unique and frankly, not replaceable.

Just for the record, I disliked both of them for their business practices, but admired them immensely for their innovative minds. And it's innovation that drives technology.

A revamped iphone or ipad simply isn't going to cut it, as Samsung is showing by eating into Apples markets. When the opposition is offering equivalent products cheaper, ultimately you will loose the battle. That I suspect, is why Apple spent so much money trying to fight the competition in court and other than protectionist America, mostly lost.

Neither of these companies is going to fall over and die tomorrow, but I wonder if the best is already past.

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