I Was Wrong About Apple Inc.

Published in Company Comment on 24 January 2013

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) soundly beat Wall Street's profit estimate while falling slightly short of the consensus revenue target.

This article was originally published on Fool.com.

WASHINGTON, DC -- I was wrong to predict a blowout.

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL.US) reported $13.81 a share in profits on $54.51 billion in revenue. Analysts were expecting $13.44 a share of profit on $54.73 billion, respectively, according to Yahoo! Finance.

Gross margin fell but to only 38.6%, above the 36% Apple had guided to. Higher margins more than made up for a sales shortfall on Apple's bottom line.

Like most prognosticators, my model presumed too much from both the iPhone and the iPad, though the latter seems to have done quite well. Here's where iPad, iPhone and Mac sales came in during fiscal Q1 versus the median projections compiled by Fortune:

ProductActualMedian projectedLast yearYear-over-year growth
iPhones sold47.789 million53.03 million37.044 million29.01%
iPads sold22.860 million24.40 million15.434 million48.11%
Macs sold4.061 million5.55 million5.198 million(21.87%)

Source: Apple earnings press releases.

On balance, there's a lot to like about Apple's sales numbers. Macs fell, sure, but worries over iPad cannibalisation appear to have been misplaced.

And while most were hoping for higher overall iPhone sales, 29% growth is nothing to sneeze at, especially with Research In Motion days away from introducing the BlackBerry 10 and Samsung working on yet another new version of its Galaxy-class Android phones.

Meanwhile, Apple is now sitting on more than $137 billion in cash and short- and long-term investments. That's a huge weapon CEO Tim Cook can wield on behalf of shareholders. At the very least, with the stock trading for less than 9 times next year's earnings -- a ludicrous multiple for such a persistent grower -- it's time to spend some of those billions buying back shares.

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If you'd like to know which UK company tempted the legendary investor to make a rare investment outside the US, then this free Motley Fool report has all the details. What's more, you may still be able to buy the shares Buffett bought at the price he paid! Indeed, the company in question has increased its dividend every year for 28 years and currently offers a yield of 4.2% -- potentially making the share a very attractive long-term investment for income-seekers.

> Tim owns shares in Apple.

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Comments

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jf2007 24 Jan 2013 , 12:26pm

I was going to buy in at around $490 last week but had to fill in a W8-BEN form. By the time its done i'll have missed opportunity. Apple looks ridiculous cheap on low P/E, high growth, massive cash pile, even with a slowdown in growth and falling margins

QuantumDealer 24 Jan 2013 , 1:57pm

Their Mac y-o-y figures are down...unsurprising given the price of the new retina MacBook Pro. Most ppl don't need laptops anymore....tablets do most of what ppl want to do now.

BigJC1 24 Jan 2013 , 3:27pm

Yes PC's are dead, they only sold a paltry 90 million units in Q4 with sales of units costing over $500 up 5% and annual sales of 353 million (versus 23 million iPads). The end is nigh.

jaizan 24 Jan 2013 , 7:35pm

jf2007, $490 last week, right now as I write this, $452.9.........

As for the growth and high margins, will this continue now Samsung are competing strongly?
The market thinks not.

BigJC1 25 Jan 2013 , 11:26am

It's not that Apple products have got any worse, although they do continually shoot themselves in the foot with cock ups like the iPhone4 losing signal when you answered it, the new useless mapping software and the new connector making all your expensive add ons redundant.

The real issue is that the competition has got so much better and now their products lead the way. That is why Samsungs market share climbed 12% in Q4 and Apple slumped 20%. You can only charge premium prices when you have the premium product and Samsung have wrestled that from Apple. Building on that Android allows other businesses to easily compete and Nokia/Microsoft are starting to gain traction.

Apple are still stunned by the death of Steve Jobs and are shackled by some of his more dubious points such as nobody wants big screen phone (the market shows otherwise) or a 7" tablet (the market again proves him wrong). Even worse new technology is all about moving on, improving the look and feel something that Microsoft have got better with as they move Windows forward. Unfortunately Apples iOS is stuck in a five year time warp with the same look and feel.

All of the above will slow Apples growth in a rapidly accelerating market.

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