Direct Line's Potential 6% Yield

Published in Company Comment on 2 November 2012

Direct Line (LSE: DLG) issues a third-quarter update.

The shares of Direct Line (LSE: DLG) slipped 2p to 197p during early London trade this morning after the insurer published its first results following its sale by Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE: RBS).

Direct Line said underlying profits for the first nine months of the year had advanced 3% to £348 million. However, the firm admitted its third-quarter profits had slipped 4% to £124 million due to lower investment returns.

Still, July, August and September did see Direct Line record a £28 million underwriting profit -- versus a £20 million loss reported during the first half of the year. The policy count remains at 20 million, with some 4 million car insurance policies generating 40% of the group's premiums.

Paul Geddes, Direct Line's chief exec, commented today:

"Against the backdrop of a competitive market and subdued investment returns, we continue to focus on disciplined pricing and underwriting, delivering claims improvements and lowering our expenses through our cost savings initiatives. This, together with the improved capital structure and performance, helped to increase our proforma return on tangible equity to 13.5% for the first nine months of 2012."

Mr Geddes added that Direct Line continues to aim for a 15% return on equity and cost savings of £100 million.

Annualising the nine-month performance, earnings for 2012 are set for 22p per share and therefore support a potential P/E of 9.

In addition, Direct Line's policy of distributing between 50% and 60% of profits as a dividend could therefore see a payout of around 12p per share next year. As such, shareholders may be in line for a possible 6% income.

But with Direct Line joining the stock market only this month, the share may not be the most clear-cut yield possibility right now.

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> Maynard does not own any share mentioned in this article.

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Comments

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tetraquark 03 Nov 2012 , 10:54am

The figure for profit quoted in this article is actually "Operating profit from ongoing operations". This don't take into account tax charges, financing costs and restructuring costs. The real profit for the 9 month period including all these charges is £124 million. Extrapolating this to 12 months would give an EPS figure of 12.6p which, at the current price, would put DLG on a PE of 15.5 for this year. Who knows when or if the "underlying profit" will take to come out on the bottom line.

For anyone who's interested, I wrote an assessment of Direct Line here:

http://www.bargainstocks.co.uk/2012/10/share-analysis-direct-line-insurance.html

and, followed up here:

http://www.bargainstocks.co.uk/2012/11/update-on-direct-line-group-dlg.html

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