Should I Buy SSE?

Published in Company Comment on 9 October 2012

Harvey Jones weighs up SSE (LSE: SSE).

It's time to go shopping for shares again, but where to start? Macho miner BHP Billiton (LSE: BLT)? Cut-price Tesco (LSE: TSCO)? Or foodie favourite Associated British Foods (LSE: ABF)?

There are plenty of great stocks to choose from, and I'm enjoying doing some window shopping. So here's the question I'm asking right now. Should I buy SSE (LSE: SSE)?

Something to chew on

Utility companies are strange beasts. Most investors see them as dull, safe, plodding ruminants, redeemed only by their tasty yield. Like cattle, or sheep.

You don't hunt utility stocks, in the way you hunt for a tigerish growth stock. You just round them up, corral them in your portfolio and digest the dividends.

Yet utilities can sometimes bite. Energy production, storage, distribution and supply company SSE, formerly Scottish & Southern Energy, saw its share price rise 20% to £14.30 in the first six months of this year, before crashing down to £12.92, a drop of nearly 10%, after Ofgem warned it wanted energy firms to spend £22 billion on upgrades. That's not exactly the dotcom crash part two, but hey, we are talking utilities here.

Life's a gas

SSE quickly recovered, following its interim statement later that month showing a solid second quarter. Electricity consumption per customer rose 6%, while gas consumption rose 42% on cooler weather.

SSE also added another 110,000 customers, and boosted both its onshore and offshore wind farm capacity.

Best of all, as far as investors concerned, is that SSE stated that its poor financial objective is to deliver annual, above-inflation dividend increases, and is on course to deliver a full-year hike of at least 2% more than RPI for 2012/13, with more to follow from 2013/14 onwards.

Frankly, that's what we want to hear.

As UK households have discovered to their cost, UK utility companies have pricing power. In August, SSE announced it will raise its gas and electricity by 9%, from 9 October.

Yes, cash-strapped customers can shop around, using a price-comparison site. Or turn down their heating. And maybe one day politicians will act to keep a lid on prices. But in the end, most will pay the bill.

Supermarkets dream of such pricing power.

SSE me, feel me

SSE is all about the yield. And at 5.6%, covered 1.4 times, why not? SSE has been a solid long-term performer, delivering double the total return of the FTSE 100 over the past decade. That's the power of dividends, provided you re-invest them for growth.

If you want to be clever about it, you could hang on a bit to see if the share price drops, because at £14.27, it's only just short of its 52-week high. But that strategy could backfire if it climbs further. This is a defensive stock, and we live in uncertain times.

There is another reason to invest in SSE. From time to time, it is subject to takeover talk, which ramps up the share price. But mostly, you'll just want to feel that yield.

SSE trades on a modest forecast price-to-earnings ratio of 12.6 for March 2013, but utility investors have no need to feel sheepish. With a yield of 11 times Bank of England base rate, SSE looks positively carnivorous. If you invest for the long term, this stock should lift your animal spirits.

One stock on Buffett's menu

If SSE doesn't light your fire, there are plenty of other sizzling stocks out there, including the one UK share that Warren Buffett loves.

This special in-depth report is completely explains exactly why Warren Buffett bought this share. Better still, it is completely free and without any obligation. Availability is strictly limited, so if you want to know the name of this company, please download it now.

Further Motley Fool investment opportunities:

> Harvey owns shares in BHP Billiton. He doesn't own shares in any other company mentioned in this article. The Motley Fool owns shares in Tesco.

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Comments

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BigJC1 09 Oct 2012 , 3:12pm

Good article Harvey, what's your view on the proposed changes/review of RPI and what it could mean for all utilities and their share price/yield ?

F958B 09 Oct 2012 , 4:08pm

I like SSE.

I was a buyer around £10-11 in 2010, with SSE intermittently being my largest holding (due to share price fluctuations and portfolio tinkering). SSE amounted to around 9% of portfolio.

In the last couple of weeks I have been reducing my holding down to a median sized holding ("long-term-hold") from an overweight holding.
This trimming being because the value-for-money has mostly gone with the 40% rise in the shares over the last two years while profits have only crept higher.

I do have some longer-term concerns about SSE which also helped tip my decision.
Firstly, the challenges that SSE might face if Scotland became independent and the likely very socialist government they'd have. This could be catstrophic for SSE's Scottish operations.

Secondly, the recent waffle from the Labour leader (Miliband) is suggesting that he not only wants to get really tough on banks, but also on utilities due to high energy prices being a very topical debate these days.
Somehow I can't see voters wanting to persevere with the current Con-Lib "austerity" (even though financial markets will force it on us if we don't cut back "big government" voluntarily) so I would not be surprised to see Labour, or a Lab-Lib government in a couple of years time.

F958B 09 Oct 2012 , 4:18pm

Thinking back, actually, I remember seeing a broker note from late 2010 recommending clients sell their SSE shares.

The main reason cited for recommending clients sell was.....

......wait for it.......

because the share price hadn't moved up much - "underperforming" since the crash lows of 2008/9.

I forget who the broker was, but that's got to be one of the best "famous last words" I've seen in investing. The broker's logic was ridiculous and their timing was diabolical.

ANuvver 09 Oct 2012 , 8:40pm

F:

We may indeed be back into a 70s-type pushmepullyou political pattern. Be you left or right (or at least the electable compromises thereof), surely the bond markets are going to dictate this game for some time to come.

It seems depressingly familiar to me. Opposition left surfs outrage at inhumane belt-tightening, then opposition right whips up fury at irrresponsible profligacy, while both quietly adhere to the status quo imposed by international forces beyond their control. All within a one-term setup which allows for endless recrimination about it not being our fault that we haven't had time to reverse what the previous lot did.

Are you, by any chance, stalking wider infrastructure opportunities with an eye to the possibility of a (excuse the potentially vulgar connotations) Balls splurge? (With or without the king-maker appendage.)

A propos SSE - hmm. Headwinds, to put it mildly. And if you can say that about a utility that makes more than the necessary noise about returns to shareholders...

They say, in paraphrase, be clever when everyone's being stupid, and vice versa. Try as I might, I can't find any tree to pin my money to right now. Even the biggest bond-buying institutions are totally divided on strategy.

Sorry fellow Fools, but I dispute the notion that there is always a bargain to be had somewhere. Sure, if you look hard enough you'll be able to truffle out something of interest, but at what risk? My trading cash can sit there for a while yet.

jongleur100 09 Oct 2012 , 10:20pm

Excellent comments above.
I've been put off SSE for the reasons already given - energy as political football; electoral expediency; constantly shifting macro-economics of oil-gas-nuclear.
Very attractive yield, but can it be sustained?

UrbanDreamer 10 Oct 2012 , 8:26am

Re the proposed 'changes' in RPI.

At the moment it is under consultation and you can state your opinion. One of the options is to do nothing and keep RPI exactly as it is.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/user-engagement/consultations-and-surveys/national-statistician-s-consultation-on-options-for-improving-the-retail-prices-index/index.html

Assuming that RPI was changed to use one of the two alternative methods the value calculated might be up to 1% lower, with the emphasis on the phrase "up to". It depends upon the variability of the price of shirts.

On the subject of SSE, I have owned them since the fictional "Sid" rather than Buffet was the investor that everyone had heard of.

Personally I am more concerned about political risks (windfall taxes, REO, insulation scheme's or just plain government theft) than changes to inflation dictating regulated price rises.

jackdaww 10 Oct 2012 , 8:49am

i reduced my SSE to zero some time ago - due to gut feelings and red tick boxes outnumbering greens.

pleasing to see other big hitters reducing also.

BigJC1 10 Oct 2012 , 9:19am

Urban Dreamer. Thanks, but a 1% hit to RPI, and hence sales, could be material to a business that seems to survive on about a 3% profit margin ? Given that in 3 out of the last 5 years profits have been extremely low it could force a loss making situation.

duffmanchon 10 Oct 2012 , 3:45pm

Th political risks are real but we still have cheap electricity vs the rest of europe. http://www.lovemoney.com/news/household-bills/gas-and-electricity/12993/the-cheapest-energy-in-europe

More could be done on simplifying the tarifs but it seems like this is one industry where privatisation has actually worked as promised, cheaper costs to consumers and a more efficient industry.

jaizan 10 Oct 2012 , 8:43pm

Privatisation and competition has given us the cheapest electric in Europe.
However, all the usual left wing organisations such as the Labour party and the BBC take every possible chance to have a cheap knock at this privatisation.
That's when some of us consumers want competition in other sectors, such as healthcare. Then doctors might just start treating us like customers.

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