Norseman Gold: High Return And High Risk

Published in Company Comment on 18 July 2012

Norseman Gold shores up its finances as it aims to return to profitable production.

There are risky stocks, very risky stocks and then there are small resource companies. Perhaps no company illustrates this better than Norseman Gold (LSE: NGL), which owns what is claimed to be Australia's longest continually running gold mining operation.

Like many small miners, it often seems to live from hand to mouth, constantly raising fresh funds as it builds up its latest project. Often such companies just have one mine, creating a huge amount of operational risk compared to larger miners such as the FTSE 100's (UKX) BHP Billiton (LSE: BHP) and Rio Tinto (LSE: RIO). But when everything looks bleakest, these shares can offer great buying opportunities for brave investors.

For example, at the start of 2009, Norseman shares were trading at less than 2p. They finished the year north of 50p and peaked soon after at around 75p. But after various production issues, the shares have slumped. This morning a fundraising of £13m was announced at just 2.7p.

The money comes from Tulla Resources, a well-regarded family-run private outfit, which already has a sizable stake in Norseman Gold and now effectively runs the company. It will increase the number of shares in issue from 492m to around 1bn, valuing it at just under £30m. There are also various warrants and convertible notes in issue (mostly at 6p and 12p), which could potentially take the share count to 1.5bn and would value the company at £40m, where they all to be exercised.

Norseman's near-term aim is to get production back up to 100,000 ounces a year, and cost per ounce down below $1,000. Two parts of the mine have been mothballed for the time being, leading to the workforce being more than halved.

The specific production target for the year to June 2013 is 80,000 ounces, and 17,000 in the September quarter. With gold at $1,600 an ounce, this should create significant cash flow, although -- as seasoned mining investors will often warn -- it's likely to be eaten into by ongoing and exploration-related capital expenditure.

Norseman hopes to develop other prospects in its tenements, and even get production up to 300-400,000 ounces a year. This tends to be the level that makes small gold miners more attractive takeover targets, so it makes sense as a longer-term goal.

Due to the fundraising, the shares are suspended at the moment, but they are due to start trading again before the end of this week. Having had some success in this sector before, this situation has certainly tweaked my interest. But given the history of this operation, it still looks extremely high risk.

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> Stuart does not own any of the shares listed above.

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drfuzz 19 Jul 2012 , 1:37pm

Hmm, I see Barry Cahill (was CEO) has left the building. I'd looked at NGL at 40p a year ago or so, but decided against it because of Cahill's complete lack of credibility.... in one interview, he said about the lack of proven reserves "we know there's gold there and don't need to pay people to prove it". Sure enough a bit later NGL were announcing missing production targets... unsurprising given that if you don't know what's there, you're going to struggle to get it out properly.... and the share prices started its descent to current levels.

All signs point to NGL sitting on some gold, but I'd want to see some proven reserves and costs of extraction before buying in... I have to admit I haven't looked at the new board yet or the work they have done so maybe they have done this already... While tempted to reopen the analysis, I'm already underwater on another gold miner with well planned production but political problems (CEY) so probably won't re-open it. Interesting article though, and maybe there's some money to be made with NGL!

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