Milk This Massive Dividend

Published in Company Comment on 8 May 2012

High-yield share pays out a huge dividend.

Following the takeover of Robert Wiseman Dairies, £400m market-cap Dairy Crest Group (LSE: DCG)  is the last dairy in the UK that you can buy shares in today. 

At today's price, Dairy Crest is expected to pay out a 6.7% dividend to shareholders and deliver a level of profitability that puts the company on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 6.3.

Cash cow

There's more to Dairy Crest that just milk, however. The company has a substantial dairy foods operation, churning out well-known brands such as Cathedral City, Country Life and FRijj.

The non-milk operation currently provides approximately one third of group sales, with the rest coming from the white stuff.

While cows need milking every day and the British nation remains in love with a refreshing cuppa, the dairy industry is in no danger of disappearing in my lifetime. The only question is the price at which milk will sell such that the farmers, dairies and consumer are all happy.

In the last few years, dairy margins have been declining, to the point where milk production is close to being unprofitable. This has damaged Dairy Crest's earnings -- at the interim stage the company reported just £5.8m of profit on £530m of milk sales, almost half the profit they made last year on the same volumes. Fortunately, the margins on the rest of Dairy Crest's products is far superior to milk; the company sliced £16.5m of profit out of £102m of cheese sales in the first half and a massive £31.7m of profit from spread sales of £160m.

Glass half-full

You might be thinking that with the profit margin Dairy Crest is making on its milk being thinner than the skin on a pint of full-fat pasteurised, then shares in the company should be avoided. But looking more closely at the industry, there are reasons to believe Dairy Crest's cup, while not overflowing, may be half-full at least.

Dairy Crest has recently announced a cut in the price it pays farmers for their milk and is considering the closure of two dairies. This sends a clear signal that the company is taking steps to reverse the margin decline in milk sales.

The company's net debt figure of £365m will no doubt be deterring some investors, but with such attractive vital statistics -- P/E and yield -- as Dairy Crest is demonstrating, the investment case was never going to be all milk and honey.

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> David does not own shares in Dairy Crest.

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Comments

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CunningCliff 08 May 2012 , 11:32am

Net debt: £365m
Market cap: £400m
Margins declining to wafer-thin levels

Classic value trap. Avoid!

Cliff

hcidata 08 May 2012 , 12:39pm

I used to own Dairy Crest but bailed out due to pension funding. I have not looked at them recently. Does anybody have any up-to-date info on their pension scheme?

mufuliraman 08 May 2012 , 12:55pm

A drop in the price paid to farmers for milk is NOT something to cheer about, even if you are a shareholder. The price paid to farmers has declined dreadfully over the past 5-10 years to the extent that now dairy farmers are quitting farms that have been in the family for generations as they become totally unviable. We ar losing something like 10 dairy farms a week.

tetraquark 08 May 2012 , 1:15pm

The combination of debt, pension liability and squeezed margins put me off.

hcidata, some good analyisis on the pension liability can be found here:

http://www.pensionstrategies.co.uk/uploads/pdfs/FTSE%20250%20-%20December%202011.pdf

Crawfish123 08 May 2012 , 1:23pm

Our family farm finished dairy production last year had not been profitable for years, even though it was decent size. Since then the farmgate price has declined even further. Latest round of cuts means the price paid to farmers is well below the cost of production. Subsequently the closure of dairies continues as the industry is unsustainable.

The market place is incredibly competitive, with the supermarkets using discouted milk as a loss leader to attract customers. These losses are passed down the chain to Dairy Crest and the like, then to the farmers. Indicating the likes of Dairy Crest have no pricing power.

Supply and demand must at some point equal out for milk production in the uk, but its likely we are heading towards importing from abroad and a small number of 'super dairies', which were opposed so much by the media. But this is the grim reality of the way the market is set up.

My advice would be avoid like the plague.

F958B 08 May 2012 , 3:49pm

I'm with Cliff on this one; there's an unacceptable risk of them turning into a value trap.
If I was already a holder I might hold and closely monitor the company's progress, but I would look elsewhere if I was feeling the need to buy something.

That's not to say there isn't a chance of a good, profitable recovery - or a takeover - but if you're negative on retail, you ought to be really negative on the retailers' suppliers who always end up getting squeezed even in the best of times.

There is a saying:
Q./
How do you make a small fortune in farming?
A./
Start with a large one.

snoekie 08 May 2012 , 5:24pm

Thank you Cliff for the info and the debt info.

Sooner or later milk supply will dry up unless better prices are paid to local sources. Now if the CAP were revised to stop subsidising the "foreign" (within the EEC) production, things would be better. OK, the MMB was a quango, but it did serve a useful function.

thecowboy83 08 May 2012 , 9:39pm

There are too many milk processors within the UK dairy industry which makes them weak negotiators with the Supermarkets who subsequently put a lot of downward price pressure on them.

In addition, global dairy markets are fairly buoyant driven by Asia absorbing an ever increasing tonnage of the tradable long-life products. Processors have to be mindful of global trade when negotiating milk prices with farmers who have the option of selling their milk to companies that can dry milk and ship it abroad.

Dairy farming probably isn’t the easiest way to earn a crust but right now I reckon the medium term looks better for those invested in producing rather than processing.

For good processor info. try: http://www.ipaquotas.com/

SteveMarkus 09 May 2012 , 7:31am

Also worth remembering the strategic review of the French subsidiary, which is expected to be worth about £365M - in other words the value of their debt. Just a thought....

Steve.

thecowboy83 23 May 2012 , 7:36pm

Interesting to hear the news r.e. Arla, Milk-Link possible merger. Following Muller's take-over of Wisemans a few months back I'm wondering if someone will swoop for DC ??

Depressed SP + a lot of debt but some solid brands.

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