Sainsbury's Leaps As Sales Perk Up

Published in Company Comment on 21 March 2012

The supermarket's improving sales trends help to underpin its chunky dividend.

This morning, J Sainsbury (LSE: SBRY) saw its shares climb more than 3%, after it unveiled improved sales in its latest market announcement.

A retail rebound

In a trading statement for the 10 weeks to 17 March, Sainsbury's proudly revealed a "strong finish to a good year", with total sales (excluding fuel) in its fourth quarter up 5.1%.

However, like-for-like sales growth -- the industry's headline measure of retail success -- was more subdued, climbing 2.6% excluding fuel. The good news for Sainsbury's is that this is ahead of 2.1% like-for-like sales growth for 2011-12 as a whole, so its sales are gradually gaining ground.

These sales trends would have been even stronger, were it not for lower petrol-price inflation and reduced fuel sales over the past 12 months. Sainsbury's also reported two other positive trends: it hit its target to grow floor space by 7.3% in the year, plus its convenience, online and non-food divisions all grew faster than the wider market.

In 2011-12, the FTSE 100 firm opened 19 new supermarkets, extended 28 and replaced four. Its estate of smaller, convenience stores also grew by 69 sites, thanks to 73 new additions and four closures.

Trouncing Tesco

In January, Sainsbury's bitter rival, market leader Tesco (LSE: TSCO) released its first profit warning for more than two decades. Just last week, Tesco's UK boss stepped down to be replaced by the group's chief executive, and it owned up to a pricing mix-up for new Apple iPads.

Sainsbury's revival at Tesco's expense must greatly please its CEO, Justin King. While Tesco's market share has dropped to levels not seen since 2005, Sainsbury's is beating the market. Indeed, like-for-like sales growth is marching upwards: over the past four quarters, growth has been 1.9%, 1.9%, 2.1% and, most recently, 2.6%, so the group's strategy is gaining momentum.

Sainsbury's King described this as a "good performance for the year against a challenging backdrop" and credits it to the retailer's strategy of "delivering universal customer appeal."

King singled out Sainsbury's own-label ranges for praise, thanks to a 10% rise in basics sales and a bumper, near-20% increase in sales of its premium Taste the Difference products. Also, he applauded the group's Nectar loyalty programme and Brand Match promotion (which seems to be faring better than Tesco's ill-fated Big Price Drop campaign).

Sainsbury's also claims to be the fastest-growing online grocer, thanks to sales growing at over 20% a year. Both basket spend and customer numbers are rising, with an average of 165,000 online customers a week.

Value for money

Looking ahead, Sainsbury's expects a sales boost from two national celebrations: the Queen's Diamond Jubilee and the London 2012 Olympics and Paralympics.

As I write, Sainsbury's shares trade at 316.3p, up 3.5% this morning, which values the group at £5.9 billion. At this price, they trade on a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.2 and offer a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%, covered 1.8 times.

Given Sainsbury's return to reporting rising revenues, profits and cash flow, these ratings are too modest. Hence, value investors and income-seekers should shop around for some Sainsbury's shares!

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Comments

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alarmbells 21 Mar 2012 , 3:57pm

like-for-like sales growth -- the industry's headline measure of retail success

Maybe for retailers. Not for investors or dividend seekers.

We're interested in cash flow and profits.

And Sainsbury said nothing about either of them.

Benatar 21 Mar 2012 , 6:00pm

"over the past four quarters, (like for like) growth has been 1.9%, 1.9%, 2.1% and, most recently, 2.6%,"

Which is less than UK inflation.

jaizan 21 Mar 2012 , 9:58pm

3% is not a leap.

eccyman 21 Mar 2012 , 10:29pm

I got nearly 100,000 nectar points earned at Sainsburys. Share price will tumble when I cash them ;-)

F958B 21 Mar 2012 , 11:31pm

Benatar

Like-for-like measures the number of items being sold, not the amount of revenue from those items.
LFL would be better likened to GDP growth than to inflation.

More appropriate would be Sainsbury's total sales, which were up by 4.5% - in-line with inflation.

Added to the annual LFL of +2.1%, we have 7.3% additional gross selling space, which will not be included in LFL until after it has completed a full year of sales.

So SBRY has actually "grown" from a mixture of selling more "stuff" from existing stores and from opening new stores.

On today's numbers, I will be pencilling-in an increase in the full-year dividend, from 10.8p in May 2011 to probably 11.5p in May 2012, which would be slightly ahead of inflation.

I also think that the adjusted EPS will come in around 28.2p, rather than the 27.2p recently being forecast by analysts.

The analyst forecast of 27.2p would be growth of 3% on last year's 26.5p.

CunningCliff 22 Mar 2012 , 1:10pm

What's your beef with Sainsbury's, alarmbells?

I said "like-for-like sales growth -- the industry's headline measure of retail success"

What's to argue with about this statement? I was referring to the retail industry's most commonly quoted KPI performance indicator (along with market share).

I made no comment on KPIs for investors, which are another thing entirely!

Cliff

PS: 3% is a leap if you're a flea, jaizan! ;0)

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