Tough Times For Tesco

Published in Company Comment on 15 March 2012

Tesco's brand takes another battering as its UK boss leaves and it misprices the new iPad.

This is turning out to be another week from Hell for supermarket leader Tesco (LSE: TSCO). The biggest brand in British retailing has taken three body blows since Monday -- and the week's not over yet.

Strike one: pension cutbacks

On Tuesday, the supermarket giant announced plans to lift its normal retirement age from 65 to 67. This change will affect all 172,000 members of its defined-benefit pension scheme. Predictably, this led to the UK's largest private-sector employer being criticised by trade unions and other organisations.

Strike two: UK boss to go

From a corporate perspective, this is the most shocking news for Tesco shareholders. On Thursday morning, the world's third-largest retailer announced that the head of its UK operations, Richard Brasher, is to leave the chain in July.

This is a particularly worrying development, given that Brasher -- a 26-year Tesco veteran -- took up the reins as UK boss only a year ago. What's more, it comes on the back of Tesco's first profit warning for over 20 years, which sent its shares plunging on 12 January by 55p (over 14%) to just 330p.

Brasher has already stepped down from Tesco's board and is set to leave within four months. Hence, Philip Clarke will head up Tesco's UK operations, in addition to his duties as group CEO.

This isn't the first board shake-up since Sir Terry Leahy -- the driving force behind Tesco's enormous success -- left the group a year ago, appointing Clarke as his successor. Last month, UK chief operating officer Bob Robbins stepped down after it emerged that he sold some of his Tesco stock before the 12 January profit warning.

Often, boardroom battles usually spell bad news for shareholders. Indeed, power struggles of this kind can be indicators of internal business stress or disagreement among directors. What's more, when global bosses start micro-managing individual operations, both the group and its share price can suffer.

Two possible reasons suggested for Brasher's departure are Tesco's disappointing 'Big Price Drop' promotion and weak Christmas trading, and its ongoing loss of market share to its main rivals.

Strike three: pricing problems

From the public perspective, the biggest blow to Tesco's brand this week was the news that it accidentally mispriced Apple's new iPad.

In a bizarre website glitch, Tesco Direct priced the new 4G 64GB iPad at £49.99, instead of its recommended retail price of £659. After thousands of consumers rush to buy iPads at this bargain-basement price, Tesco Direct withdrew this offer.

With iPads due to be shipped from Friday 16 March, the supermarket has refused to honour orders at the sub-£50 price. The supermarket is well within its rights to do this, as its terms and conditions include a get-out clause for mispricing before shipping.

By the way, this is just the latest in a long line of mispricing howlers at Tesco. For example, a gremlin in a BOGOF (buy one, get one free) promotion for Cadbury Mini Eggs in January saw the 100g bags priced at just a penny a bag, instead of the usual £1.50. Thanks to word spreading on social-networking websites, thousands of the Easter treats were sold before Tesco corrected this glitch.

Is Tesco in decline?

The big question for Tesco shareholders is: are its recent executive antics and pricing problems indicative of deeper problems within the UK's biggest retailer?

In particular, should Tesco owners worry about the worsening sales trend at its UK operations, which account for 70% of its business? Also, with Tesco's UK market share at its lowest level for seven years, can it return to form and gain ground at the expense of its competitors?

On the other hand, there are signs of more positive times to come from Tesco. For example, it intends to invest £400 million in store refits, as well as take on 20,000 new UK employees.

Buffett is a buyer

Personally, I remain bullish on Tesco's future performance, both in terms of its business and its share price.

After the January profit warning, famed investor Warren Buffett lifted his stake in Tesco. Having owned Tesco shares since at least 2007, Buffett bought heavily on 12 and 13 January to increase his holding in Tesco to 5.1% from 3.6%. Given Buffett's incredible record of safety-first, long-term investing, this vote of confidence in Tesco really carries weight.

Also, despite its recent troubles, Tesco remains the UK's number-one supermarket by a country mile. According to Kantar Worldpanel, it has a 29.7% market share, which is almost the same as Asda at 17.5% and J Sainsbury (LSE: SBRY) at 16.6% combined.

As I write, Tesco shares change hands at 321.5p, which values the group at £25.8 billion. At this price, its shares trade on a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.8 and offer a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%, covered a healthy 2.2 times.

Frankly, buying the UK's leading retailer on a single-digit PER and a near-5% yield seems a no-brainer to me, so I'd urge you to top up on Tesco today!

What are your views on Tesco? Will it bounce back or weaken further? Please let us know in the comments box below...

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Comments

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ANuvver 15 Mar 2012 , 7:10pm

More weakness to come IMHO...

Pensions: very sensitive brand issue for such a high-profile employer.
Boardroom: possibly the sign of a necessary shakeout, but as you say, markets don't like top-floor shenanigens. It needs grabbing by the scruff.
Website pricing by Laurel and Hardy: funny, but just glitches. No big deal.
UK market share: more than a lick of paint needed, I suspect. Market-leading complacency can be a difficult culture to shift. And of course, overseas expansion likely to remain on hold until they can regain a firm grip on their home engine.
Buffett: I'm a great admirer, but he doesn't walk on water and is the first to admit it.

Before I get deluged in 3-for-2 offers on where I can stick these observations, I'd like to say that Tesco is right up at the top of my watchlist. Just waiting for them to get a bit cheaper.

blackwhite 15 Mar 2012 , 7:54pm

The lag between the last set of figures and the response means IMO there is more downside to come. A behemoth this size will be able to turn it around no doubt and the boardroom and exec shakeup points to that, but size is against them doing a quick fix as well.

So I expect a bit more pessimism and figures reflecting an uplift in costs - more employees - 20k of them. More discounting and offers, more focus on customer satisfaction which squeezes the margins. This will bring the punters back eventually, but the share price will have dropped some more. It will get worse, before it gets better..

Bold prediction, I know, but that is when I would jump in. If not, there are other fish in the sea :-)

longtermbuynhold 15 Mar 2012 , 11:14pm

Buffett may have bought (good sign) but was it not from Woodford (bad sign) ?

jf2007 15 Mar 2012 , 11:31pm

I wonder how raising the retirement age is going to go down. Is there any possibility of industrial action. Technical problems could indicate problems in IT department. They are possibly trying to cut costs too much. Bad news this week hasn't affected share price so I would rather wait a few weeks before investing

jackdaww 16 Mar 2012 , 7:42am

tesco's IT systems may well be problematic.

they have a different login screen and security details and personal details for each of banking, credit cards, tesco direct and others.

that betrays fundamental structural design issues.

some of my own personal details are incorrect on their savings system - tesco cant put them right!.

many other companies have similar issues.

morrisons who havnt got much IT as yet - have the chance to do better.

i hold tesco and morrisons - lots.

DrFfybes 16 Mar 2012 , 10:12am

I hold TSCO, but only a very small part of my portfolio, and I'm not going to upsize.

Buffet may be clever, but he isn't clairvoyant. I too wonder if years of efficiencies and cost cutting to increase profit has led to a situation where these sorts of mistakes will become more commonplace. You can only stretch things so far, and then telling people they need to work an extra 2 years isn't really going to help morale.

I don't shop in Tesco any more, I find their pricing signs and colours inconsistent and misleading, bordering on fraudulent. On the end of the aisle is a big yellow sticker saying "50p" in large letters, bordered by "save" and "now £1.50"in very small ones, yet futher along the actual price is displayed in the larger letter.

For the last few years I've watched Morissons grow and expand, taking over run down co-ops and increasing customer numbers 5-10 fold. That is where my money goes these days, both as an investor and a shopper.

giveusaquid 16 Mar 2012 , 12:07pm

Sorry folks, this could be my fault, this always happens when I buy shares in a new company :)

I'm buying to hold so hopefully this will prove to be a blip, but I'll probably pick up some more if it falls again.

I imagine some of these problems occur all the time but right now a nice compilation of them makes for a good news item...

ANuvver 16 Mar 2012 , 12:26pm

gizza£:

Nil Commenterandum!

You're not alone. We're bound to have a lot of unhappy honeymoons with shares if we buy on weakness. Sit back and enjoy the YOC.

As I said, I still reckon it's a very good company, I'm just being a miserable skinflint about the price.

leicestershire01 16 Mar 2012 , 1:30pm

What you are not picking up on is that Tesco's is becoming unpopular at a local level due to what is seen as too aggressive a rate of expansion. This at the cost of local shops, town centres and councils too if they dare to get in the way. They are getting a bad press because of this.
I have no idea what effect this will have on the share price but it can't help.

BrnzDrgn 16 Mar 2012 , 2:38pm

Buffet can afford to lose his investment, most other people would certainly feel the pinch if they lost theirs.

jongleur100 16 Mar 2012 , 2:48pm


As Boris Johnson once wrote (in a Telegraph article of 14/10/1998 that called for supermarkets to put more back into the local and rural community) "Supermarkets excite the British to their highest pitch of humbug and hypocrisy. Of course we hate them, in a way, for what they do to farmers and to town centres. But deep down, we love them, too. We love them for being so quick, so handy."
Personally I dislike Tesco's shriekingly ostentatious logo colours on the High Street, the rather desultory and impolite service at its smaller urban outlets, the inexplicable whims of its price-offers and their sudden withdrawal. I rarely shop there. It doesn't stock my kind of stuff. OTOH a single supermarket stocking 'my kind of stuff' would probably go bankrupt within days. And out of town, the large stores are life-savers for their area.
There's a reason for their market share: that they've positioned themselves for 30 years to grab and hold it. What they need now is a face, an identity, a customer focus. And better manners.
I'd call them a no-brainer long term buy-and-hold at 300-320p.
DoI - I hold TSCO.

chubbybrown 16 Mar 2012 , 3:19pm

I'm pretty sure the trustees of the pension would have agreed to it so why the big deal?

A F/S pension is far better than one of those money purchase ones.

Anyone in I.T can price stuff wrong,its not like they were ever going to sell them at that £50 price tag is it?
They probably did it on purpose for free advertsing

Vikingdon1 16 Mar 2012 , 4:50pm

Tesco up to 325.5 today so someone likes the changes!

Don

vinchainsaw 16 Mar 2012 , 4:53pm

And after this horrible week the share price has hardly moved.

I get the impression there is a floor under the Tesco share price where there will always be bargain hunters.

AidyLee1 16 Mar 2012 , 5:38pm

I think that floor, vinchainsaw, is held in place by a healthy sustainable dividend yield...

As Buffet says, when the markets are fearful, be greedy... TSCO a good example.

GoldenSoldier 16 Mar 2012 , 5:44pm

Personally I am encouraged by the news. It seems to me that Philip Clarke is rather belatedly getting to grips with the management problem in the UK.

oatey 16 Mar 2012 , 6:55pm

I work for and hold TSCO shares.

IT is awful, pricing errors are horrendous (and what's worse they are the tip of the iceberg for IT at store level) and have been the same for years, yet still hasn't been fixed...or even tried to be fixed. It isn't input errors entirely either, most of what I see is inherent in the system - e.g X is 50p or 3 for £2 ... Should have a labelling system that doesn't allow mathematical errors etc (I could go on)

I don't think the pensions thing will make a difference as it's not as if they're scrapping the whole thing.

20,000 extra staff. Interesting statement and at store level not really heard much about where they're going with this. Our payroll budget has dropped twice - halfway through last year and again for this year's budgets v. last year.

New store openings could easily account for most if not all of this, when you consider 500+ staff work at an extra. Even new expresses take on 20-30 new staff and there's easily 50-60 of them a year if not more...

Where do I think Tesco SP is headed? Up to start, when EOY statement is probably not as bad as the market is expecting.... Then long term decline if some of the basics aren't sorted out.

GeorgeJHarney 16 Mar 2012 , 8:04pm


longtermbuynhold wrote "Buffett may have bought (good sign) but was it not from Woodford (bad sign) ? "

Yes, this to me is actually my key pointer as to what to do - who do people trust most when it comes to assessing UK blue chips, US focused Buffett who is at the end of his investing career, or UK focussed Woodford who is still at the top of the game?

Me? I'd go for Sainsburys myself right now if I wanted to invest directly in any supermarket (which I don't), but if forced to choose between the big B or wise W I'd go Woodford every time!

motivefinder 17 Mar 2012 , 10:21am

I will buy tesco till 380p, for my pension, this share is a bargain at this price,
we all are short sighted about UK market only, I think Clark have taken the right decission moving basher away. Technical things need to be dealt by professionals. Other than reducing price--the biggest improvement a company can do --is to improve its work force.

I went to one of their store yesterday, massive customer presence, good deals, good pricing for vegetable section and well presented.They can do one more thing to ask their customer service team to teach their till guys-- few majic words-- thanks, can I help you to pack, do you need anything else, have a nice day, thanks for your shopping today-- which doesnt cost a lot.
Giving customers a nice shopping experience doesnt cost a lot. Remove those people -- who are doing mistake of miss pricing and causing harm. no school leaver should be allowed in any sector where professional touch is the basic.

motivefinder 17 Mar 2012 , 10:24am

I think tesco should keep expanding in emerging market and US, where will be the big money for the business.

motivefinder 17 Mar 2012 , 10:25am

also increase the dividend year by year,
they shouldnt be soft with the mistake of any employee

motivefinder 17 Mar 2012 , 10:30am

annuver, I think you missed your chance to get in at 311p level already, not far from dividend, up and above in 2012, wait for 2013 , if you get any further chance o buy cheaper, I wont think you will get sub 311p for next 3 years.
please dont take it as my advice, just my opinion.
last 2 days to short in the market or to buy cheap might have ran ou on 6th march 2012. what we are seeing , jus the beginning of mega bull rally --2012 is the year for long, no short any more.

Witzig 17 Mar 2012 , 11:00pm

ANuvver said:-
"You're not alone. We're bound to have a lot of unhappy honeymoons with shares if we buy on weakness. Sit back and enjoy the YOC."

Sorry to be dim, but googled YOC and came up with this list.
YOC Your Opinion Counts
YOC Youth Organizing Communities
YOC Your Online Community
YOC Yield-Over-Clean
YOC Year of Coverage (Social Security)
YOC Young Ornithologist's Club
YOC Youth Opportunity Corps
YOC Young Organist Collaborative
YOC Yield of Construction
YOC Young Officers Course (Nigerian Army school)

Which is giveusaquid s'posed to sit back and enjoy?
Thanks,
W

ANuvver 18 Mar 2012 , 4:16am

Yield on cost.

ANuvver 18 Mar 2012 , 4:33am

motivefinder:

Hope you're right about that mega bull, since I'm pretty much all in, barring a bit of homework in April.

Recent bond market activity would seem to indicate a slight loosening of the sphincter. Looks like there's been some significant profit-taking on defensives too. Be interesting to see, post window dressing season, where the money winds up.

And if I've missed Tesco, that's okay. I miss lots of things. Good luck to you!

SwaziGold 18 Mar 2012 , 7:09pm

'Given Buffett's incredible record of safety-first, long-term investing, this vote of confidence in Tesco really carries weight'
Really? Not sure I see the logic here!
Just because Buffet bought enough shares to own 5% of Tesco, is that really good Foolish proof or evidence that Tesco share price will head North in the future?? Even the Sage from Omaha has made a few wrong'uns in his time.

I thought being Foolish meant being a lot smarter and more streetwise than just copying Buffet, who can afford more mistakes more often than all the rest of us.
Just a thought

Sotograndeman 19 Mar 2012 , 11:59am

Buy it and hold it like Buffett! Ignore Woodford (or anyone else for that matter). The greatest investor of all time has in effect given us a stock recommendation and we can buy at or below his cost basis.

TSCO is a company Buffett has owned for several years, it's within his circle of competence (together with WMT and COST), and is a substantial Berkshire holding. He has said in the past that he regrets not buying WMT earlier. There's no promise of short-term gain here, but the strong likelihood of long-term upside. We should take advantage of the market's myopia to accumulate. "You pay a high price for a cheery consensus".

Buffett is still at the top of his game according to various credible value investors. Let's revisit TSCO in 3-5 years' time - and examine the outcome.

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