A Company With Both Short- And Long-Term Potential

Published in Company Comment on 7 March 2012

Alkane Energy releases transformational results.

With its recent full-year results, Alkane Energy (LSE: ALK) describes the period as having been transformational as the company has leveraged its skills into new business areas.

The company's evolving strategy seems to be developing a coherence that promises good short, medium and long-term potential.

Cash from methane

Cash flow from the roll out of Alkane's coalmine methane (CMM) business has been building for several years. These results show overall operating cash up 26% to £4.4m. Here the company captures methane from abandoned coalmines and uses it to power engines that drive electricity generators. The electricity produced is then sold to the grid.

After seven consecutive years of growth, Alkane ended 2011 with 27MW of installed CMM capacity. Although a good cash-producing business line, coalmine methane depletes relatively quickly and Alkane needs either to continually open new CMM sites, or reinvest the cash into new lines of business, if it is to continue growing. It's clear that the company has been doing both.

Building growth

In the short term, Alkane expects to add 4MW of CMM capacity in the first half of 2012. Meanwhile, two acquisitions have enhanced its growth prospects, one completed during the year, and one expected to complete before the end of April 2012 after which it expects to have 70MW of installed generating capacity

As methane reserves deplete, Alkane plans to develop medium-term cash flow by using the generating engines and national grid connections in place to serve the power response market. Here, mains gas is used to run the engines, which then produce electricity at times of high demand or when the grid needs balancing. Alkane operates 8MW in this way, expected to rise to 24MW post acquisitions.

For the longer term, one opportunity is that Alkane's licences have 500 sq km of coal bed methane (CBM) potential, and it signed a partnership agreement with a drilling management company during the year to explore some of that potential. Alkane also applies its expertise to processing gas from organic waste and sees potential there. During the year, it achieved revenue of £1.1m selling a power facility for a biogas plant in Scotland.

Good results

Investors have become used to good results from Alkane recently, and these are no exception with revenue up 44% to £9.5m and adjusted pre-tax profit up 45% to £2m. At the recent share price of 21p you can pick the shares up on a forward multiple of about 6.5, according to consensus earnings estimates for 2013.

The question with Alkane has always been 'what will happen when the methane runs out?' I think recent developments start to answer that question, and there is a clear strategy emerging for short, medium and long-term growth.

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> Kevin owns shares in Alkane Energy.

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Comments

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Hannibalis 07 Mar 2012 , 5:22pm

Good article, Kevin.

This is one of the few 'alternative energy' areas I would risk my money on. There is potentially a 'double whammy' in terms of global warming, as methane released is a powerful greenhouse gas - so it should receive political support for expansion.

But no dividend, although you are tempting me to try a little 'value' investing...
http://www.the-diy-income-investor.com/

JeremyBosk 07 Mar 2012 , 10:05pm

It is forecast to pay dividends of 0.1p in2011 and 0.2p in 2012.

I looked at it years back and was put off because CBM does not get the advantages of renewable energy subsidies. Fair enough in so far as it is only renewed over geological time scales. But if the idea is to encourage green energy, it should be given equal treatment to bio-gas and solar.

tommyflockton 14 Mar 2012 , 12:59pm

I live near to one of its CMM power stations (Whitwell, Notts) and they're trying to get permission to build a bio gas plant on the same site. Local NIMBYs are probably going to scupper said plan though. It's the same with any new energy source (fracking, wind turbines, etc.). Puzzling as there was a huge coal mine there until fairly recently (who's closure was opposed by the same NIMBYs I'll warrent).
If coal bed methane requires fracking then I imagine there will be even more local opposition!
All the same, I have bought some Alkane shares as I think we'll have to get energy from somewhere, and at least their technology demonstrably works.

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