RBS Leaps 8% As It Scraps 3,500 Bankers

Published in Company Comment on 12 January 2012

The state-supported bank is to close much of its once-profitable investment bank.

This has been a good morning for shareholders in Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE: RBS) -- including the British government, which owns 83% of the bailed-out bank.

As I write, the RBS share price is up more than 8%, at 23.6p, in the wake of a much-anticipated announcement regarding the future of its investment-banking operations.

RBS plays to its strengths

This morning, RBS chief executive Stephen Hester unveiled wide-ranging changes to the group's investment bank and wholesale business. These changes are aimed at continuing the strategy announced by RBS in 2009, in the aftermath of its £45.2 billion bailout by UK taxpayers.

What's more, all UK-based banks are undergoing a period of enforced change, thanks to the ring-fencing of risky assets recommended by the independent Vickers Commission, plus higher capital requirements set out by the Basel III banking standards (and the UK government).

These regulatory changes have made certain capital-intensive aspects of banking much less profitable. As a result, RBS has joined other banks in streamlining, downsizing and exiting certain investment-banking functions. In future, RBS Global Banking and Markets (GBM) and Global Transaction Services (GTS) will evolve into two new divisions: 'Markets' and 'International Banking'.

Markets will provide corporate and institutional clients of RBS with support for fixed income (bonds), debt capital raising, securitisation, risk management, foreign exchange and rates. International Banking will combine the corporate-banking business of GBM with the international businesses of GTS to provide clients with access to debt financing, risk management and payments services.

Both new divisions will report to John Hourican, current CEO of GBM, who is allegedly soon to receive a £4.5 million bonus for last year.

3,500 more jobs to go

As well as bolstering these key divisions, RBS is taking an axe to non-core businesses where it lacks strength and market share.

As a result, the bank will exit its cash equities, corporate broking, equity capital markets, and mergers and acquisitions businesses. RBS is considering whether to sell or close these groups, which generated income of £220 million in the first nine months of 2011, but are currently unprofitable. Indeed, the bank is already in discussions with a number of potential buyers.

Over the next three years, RBS expects these changes to lead to the loss of 3,500 jobs worldwide, on top of 2,000 positions to be cut in the first half of this year.

A smaller, leaner RBS

RBS has been forced to reinvent itself for these three simple reasons:

First, to reduce the size of its bloated balance sheet, which had swelled to £2.4 trillion (almost twice UK national output) before the global financial crash of 2007/09. The changes to RBS Global Banking and Markets are expected to reduce its balance sheet by £120 billion, from £420 billion in mid-2011 to £300 billion three years hence.

Second, to reduce the bank's reliance on unsecured wholesale funding. At GBM, this is expected to decrease by £75 billion over three years. Also, RBS aims to have its domestic and international corporate-banking businesses wholly funded by their deposits, with a 100% loan-to-deposit ratio.

Third, RBS aspires to improve its return on equity to 12% over the medium term. By shedding risky assets and capital-intensive operations, the bank will progress towards this target.

Lower returns for shareholders?

Looking ahead, with a smaller balance sheet and bigger capital cushion, RBS should be stronger and more resilient to Mr Market's periodic shocks. However, it will also be a much more conservative, stable business.

Therefore, this suggests that the bumper profits of pre-2008 are a thing of the past, so shareholders may need to lower their future expectations regarding earnings and dividends!

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Comments

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SevenPillars 12 Jan 2012 , 2:00pm

Not sure that they are getting rid of 3500 bankers as such, probably a lot of support staff, ordinary people doing ordinary jobs. The ones that really should be paying for the crisis, even those that lost their jobs, will never have to worry about signing on the dole, most will have plenty of cash in the bank from all those bonuses to fall back on. Even worse, they seem to fall on their feet like HBOS failure Andy Hornby. Went from the mess of HBOS to Alliance Boots and is now CEO of Coral the bookies, which is slightly ironic when you think about it given the gambles he made at the Halifax which totally backfired. Nice work if you can get it.

Monkeynugget 12 Jan 2012 , 2:06pm

I bought into RBS at 20p so this news put a smile on my face, I'm not sure whether this is a temporary increase or the beginning of its climb back to profitability. heres hoping for the later

OxonianCambion 12 Jan 2012 , 6:53pm

Therefore, this suggests that the bumper profits of pre-2008 are a thing of the past.

Surely the point is that these profits were not real.. If you buy a black box that has a label saying £1bn on it and you cross that out and put $1.5bn on instead, that's not actual profit!

Of course when the box is opened and it's just got dog poo in it, everyone looks silly, apart from the person with the labeller who got the 'performance' bonus!

I'm still concerned by how many black boxes haven't actually been opened yet so I'm just going to keep out of the sector entirely. I think we're spoilt for choice at the moment for sound places to invest!

adcmelb 13 Jan 2012 , 6:49am

The bumper profits may not be there in the future BUT there will good profits as the world economy improves, the bad debts decline. As for the share price of course it will rise BUT I am also guess a reverse stock split will take place to mop the excess shares - RBS is well and truely a buy if you dont mind a 2 to 5 yr time frame with very good profits.

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