BP Cancels Dividend, Shares Leap

Published in Company Comment on 17 June 2010

Obama is happier, and BP's survival is more certain. Just don't bank on the shares suddenly shooting much higher.

It was coming. They had no option. Last night, BP (LSE: BP) agreed to cancel its previously declared first quarter dividend, scheduled for payment on Monday next week, and also said no interim dividends will be declared in respect of the second and third quarters of 2010.

Following a meeting with President Obama, BP agreed to…

  • Create a $20 billion claims fund over the next three and a half years, starting with a $3 billion payment in Q3 of 2010 and $2 billion in Q4 of 2010. These will be followed by a payment of $1.25 billion per quarter until a total of $20 billion has been paid in.

  • The fund will be available to satisfy legitimate claims including natural resource damages and state and local response costs. Fines and penalties will be excluded from the fund and paid separately.

The fund does not represent a cap on future liabilities, and the total cost to the company is still unknown, and likely to remain that way for years or even decades to come.

BP To Survive

But it does achieve a number of things…

1) Assures President Obama that the company is committed to, can, and will pay for the damage its spewing well is causing to the USA.

2) Assures the people immediately affected by the spill, specifically local businesses and employees, that they can and will get compensation.

3) Removes some of the uncertainty surrounding BP's survival.

In US last night, BP's shares reversed earlier losses to close up 45 cents, or 1.4 percent, at $32.85. In early trading in the UK, they rose some 7% to 385p. Still, the shares are still down almost 50% since the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded on April 20, killing 11 workers, wiping about £50 billion off the value of the company.

On Bloomberg, Jason Kenney of ING said:

"This move protects the long-term value of BP and draws a line in the sand for the speculation and wild uncertainty that's been thrown around…This doesn't mean the downfall of BP; it can get through this."

A Sad & Sorry Episode

Get through it they will, but this whole sad and sorry episode will leave an indelible mark on BP.

Financially, it will take them years to rebuild. As part of setting up the compensation fund, BP said it intends to implement a significant reduction in organic capital spending and to increase planned divestments to approximately $10 billion over the next twelve months.

Perhaps this is something they should have, or would have done anyway, and the politics of the moment allows them to get at least one brownie point for this measure.

BP's cash flows from operations are expected to exceed $30 billion in 2010, before taking into consideration costs related to the Deepwater Horizon spill, and their gearing level remains at the bottom of its targeted band of 20-30%.

A New Name Coming For BP

Time, and $20 billion, are usually great healers, although in this case, all that oil, estimated by some now to be in the vicinity of 50,000 barrels per day, surely must do some serious, irrecoverable damage.

But in the years ahead, BP, complete with a new corporate name (suggestions in the comments boxes below, please), will recover from this disaster.

BP No Longer A Buy?

The dividend will be resumed, although likely starting from a lower base. As for the shares, it really is anyone's guess. Although I argued recently BP was a buy, I'm not so sure today. My caution is twofold…

1) Almost uniform bullishness. I was astounded at the result of our recent Duelling Fools poll, where 71% of voters thought BP a buy, versus only 13% voting to sell. When the masses zig, I want to zag.

2) Why take the risk with BP, whose shares need to rise 100% to get back to their pre-disaster level, when there are plenty of other dirt-cheap blue chip shares out there?

BP shares should be all right in the long-term. $30 billion cash flow from operations, per annum, goes a long way. I just wouldn't bank on the shares flying significantly higher in the coming months.

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> Bruce Jackson has an interest in BP, sadly bought before the disaster. He has not bought more since, and nor has he sold any… yet.

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Comments

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BarrenFluffit 17 Jun 2010 , 10:02am

All the scheme does is define that BP must pay in a defined schedule. It makes no difference to the as yet uncapped liability. The share price rise does indicate some capping of political risks.

In theory by being committed to the payment schedule its free cash flow is reduced and risks are slightly higher. But in the context of overall cash flow its rather small.

supasap 17 Jun 2010 , 11:32am

i bought in at 393 so expect to make something in few weeks but nothing guaranteed of course but cant believe it's lost half its value

Londonian 17 Jun 2010 , 12:14pm

Interestingly, past experience of major oil spills shows that the consequential damage, clean-up costs etc have been far less than first anticipated, with shorelines and fish stocks recovering remarkably quickly (fish stocks even increasing, due to less intensive fishing during the clean-up period). Furthermore, most major spills have been much closer to the shore than this one and the vast volume of water in the Caribbean (measured in QUADRILLIONS of gallons) means that the volume of oil leaked is relatively miniscule. In any case, most of the oil is "eaten up" by bacteria in a short space of time. At current prices, I'm a buyer of BP.

Londonian 17 Jun 2010 , 12:19pm

Transocean (RIG on the NYSE) is also on the way up after a similar fall to BP's. May buy some today.

BikerPatch 17 Jun 2010 , 12:22pm

Where you say 71% say BP is a buy, the markets have been the exact opposite with massive sell-offs. The 71% of buyers must be buying relatively small (or just talking the talk but not even standing up to walk) while huge amounts are wiped off the stock market. Surely then the correct zag option is to buy (actually buy and not just vote about it on a website).

This here lies the problem with polls on this website. If the majority of traders here think like Ben Graham (and this is my assumption for this website compared with the rabble of fund managers and day traders that don't research) then to zag you will be following the wrong group?

ricea 17 Jun 2010 , 12:33pm

FuturePower

Reflects the need to adapt to future power needs, doing more with less, developing new fields as suitable and other types of power.

I sold (but Crapital Spreads managed to ell much lower than when I put in the sale so profits not as good as they should have been). Now it's a waiting game. It;s not doing much Let the day traders play with it for a while and look for the next trend. In the meantime, whilst it is volatile, there are plenty of others to be looking at.

ikana 17 Jun 2010 , 12:50pm

What troubles me as a shareholder is the crass management of BP's communications from both CEO and chairman, combined with their willingness to accept the full blame. There was no attempt to reflect on the market environment they operated in, which was determined by the quality of regulatory supervision. There has been no attempt to rebut any of the sickening accusations from BP's supposed partners in the offshore site, no challenge to the insane idea of paying for other workers laid off because the Government suspended offshore drilling and no defence to Obama's accusations of slow payments. I will be looking for major changes at the next AGM at Board level, in the US management team supervising this rig and their PR team

supasap 17 Jun 2010 , 12:57pm

yeah and its the yanks that still consume 50% of the world's oil the arrogant greedy lot... like to see what Obama has planned for that statistic

Invest2bBlessed 17 Jun 2010 , 1:31pm

I think the new company name should be OP. (Obama's Piggybank).

As the other poster says, getting BP to pay the wages of other oil workers because the government has introduced a moratorium on drilling is blatant political manoeuvring.

barneycal 17 Jun 2010 , 1:32pm

I guess 'Gulf Oil' has already been taken?

UpHillAllTheWay 17 Jun 2010 , 1:49pm

With $20bn to be handed out, I wonder how carefully the claims will be scrutinised. It's a juggling act to employ the right amount of administration. Too little, and there will be huge fraud; too much, and the costs of administration are higher than the fraud would have been.
One way or another, when there's this amount of money being effectively given away, I'll bet there will be plenty of willing hands reaching out for it - not all of them deserving!

UpHillAllTheWay 17 Jun 2010 , 1:51pm

Another thought about the hand-outs - I believe they will be done by a fund into which BP pays. So the fund won't even be handing out their own money. It's always much easier to be free and easy with money when you didn't have to earn it.

andrewdonald 17 Jun 2010 , 2:22pm

Bruce - how can we take you seriously when you keep changing your mind? BP is a fantastic opportunity, and you will kick yourself for not buying in.

MiltonKeynes 17 Jun 2010 , 2:57pm

How about renaming the company as USBP?

bouleversee 17 Jun 2010 , 3:22pm

The following is a quote from the leading article in The Times today:-

"Sadly, the current management is not capable of resurrecting BP as an energy company of the future. A takeover - by Exxon, Chevron, Shell, or, if the US authorities allowed, Russia's Gazprom - currently seems quite possible." Is that why the price went up today?

aGreyarea 17 Jun 2010 , 3:34pm

I reckon BP's willingness to bend over and take it comes from the pressure applied to Obama to break the company. I read that BP delivers around 50% of the US military's supplies. Can you imagine how much lobbying for that business there would be from Exxon, Chevron et al? Plus the bulk of BPs business comes from the US anyway. Their lobbyists must be screaming for punitive damages that would rival our deficit. I'd expect Hayward's been told that if he has to, go on TV, kneel and kiss his hand.

macb10 17 Jun 2010 , 3:40pm

Before investing money in BP take a view on the fines and penalties likely to be imposed on top of the $20Billion fund. There is plenty of evidence of gross negligence in the decisions made on the completion of this well. See http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6604
Tony Hayward will be having an uncomfortable afternoon with those questions from the Oversight and Investigations committee today. I'll wait for the dust to settle

UpHillAllTheWay 17 Jun 2010 , 3:44pm

BP has spent a load on trying to get the leak capped. Surely, nobody can accuse them of refusing to pour oil on troubled waters?!

bouleversee 17 Jun 2010 , 6:50pm

Did Hayward answer those specific questions? So far as I can gather, he just said they'd have to await the results of the enquiry but perhaps I missed something.

Doesn't sound as though the right people had the responsibility for decision making.

MK22 17 Jun 2010 , 8:04pm

BP currently has two problems. The first is that it took over basically bankrupt American oil companies and kept their managers. BP current woes stem at least partly from the number of American managers in the company nwho are less than incopetent. Secondly, the mid-term elections are coming up in teh US and Obama hasn't exactly been setting the political scene alight. This might just give the Democratic vote a lift.

What we need is for Cameron to tell Obama that unless he positively supports BP, we will be pulling out of Afganistan because with BP we can't afford to be there.

MK22 17 Jun 2010 , 8:06pm

OK, so I can't type! The last sentence should end "because without the income from BP we can't afford to be there."

TheBankManager 17 Jun 2010 , 8:11pm

Bullish Petroleum? The first word is not mis-spelled, I assure you!!

macb10 17 Jun 2010 , 11:02pm

The questions were not answered and that is a shame as getting the dirty washing out at this stage would probably be beneficial. As the committee chairman said, Hayword has only "Kicked the can down the road". I'm guessing they want to share the blame with Transocean in the longer term. Check their submission though and you see that the suspect BOP passed all tests up to the blowout (although it certainly failed when it was needed. BP mismanagement of the casing completion puts them in a vulnerable legal position.
BP short cuts and complacency is the smoking gun and it looks like a management problem of epic proportions.
Exxon had the luxury of being able to point the finger at a pissed ship's Captain to take the blame in the Exxon Valdez incident which is being used often for comparisons.
No comparison at all!

macb10 17 Jun 2010 , 11:08pm

New name could be:
Sinopec Petroleum.
CNOC
Petrobras

chat01 18 Jun 2010 , 1:25am

New name should be Slick.

RockderktheGreat 18 Jun 2010 , 3:44am

New Name:Big People

kippaxst 18 Jun 2010 , 6:05am

Will the old "Beyond Petroleum" slogan be used ever again.
In maintenance, BP stratedgy over the last few years is not to use their own people but contract out. Just look at the little imput they have in the North Sea, with most of their rigs / instalations manned by cheap and dubious contracted labour.

The reality is BP has lost control of its standards and is now paying for it, sadly in this case and in Texas City, with lives.
Let us not forget the rig in the Gulf was, A - American and operated to their standards.
B - The faulty shutdown valve was American made and to their standards.

All this might sound a bit like blowing ther British trumpet but as someone who had to witness the official video of what caused the Texas City disaster, Amercian Standards are appauling compared with British.

Yet here we are again being lectured by the Americans on what we should do to improve our standards, its disgusting and degrading for every British Oil Worker.

Gengulphus 18 Jun 2010 , 9:54am

The dividend will be resumed, although likely starting from a lower base.

Just to be clear: the announcement did not say that the dividend will be resumed, nor at what level. It just said that they'll consider resuming it with a dividend for Q4 2010 (i.e. the one they would normally declare and pay in Q1 2011) and that it will depend on what they then know about the likely costs (which should be a lot more than they know now - e.g. they should know by then whether the initial relief wells have succeeded).

Gengulphus

EdPemberton 18 Jun 2010 , 1:26pm

The company used to be called BP-Amoco. Just call it Amoco and that may help put an end to the "British" aspect.

RedundantHippie 18 Jun 2010 , 1:35pm

The new name for BP should be "The All American Oil Company" that way this cock up would just become an unfortunate accident. Alternatively how about "Union Carbide Oil"

Interstingly BP used to be called the "Anglo Iranian Oil Company" - I'll bet Iran is glad that was changed otherwise the B52''s would be revving their engines up now..

MK22 19 Jun 2010 , 4:44pm

Now here's a thought. Perhaps Russia could use TNK-BP to take over BP if the shares drop low enough. That would give President Obama something to take his mind off all the pollution.....

RobinnBanks 20 Jun 2010 , 12:48am

How about:
The Crude Oil Company of United Petroleum States (COCUPS).

Nibor11 23 Jun 2010 , 5:19am

An appropriate name could be BurP...

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