Obama is happier, and BP's survival is more certain. Just don't bank on the shares suddenly shooting much higher.
It was coming. They had no option. Last night, BP (LSE: BP) agreed to cancel its previously declared first quarter dividend, scheduled for payment on Monday next week, and also said no interim dividends will be declared in respect of the second and third quarters of 2010.
Following a meeting with President Obama, BP agreed to…
- Create a $20 billion claims fund over the next three and a half years, starting with a $3 billion payment in Q3 of 2010 and $2 billion in Q4 of 2010. These will be followed by a payment of $1.25 billion per quarter until a total of $20 billion has been paid in.
- The fund will be available to satisfy legitimate claims including natural resource damages and state and local response costs. Fines and penalties will be excluded from the fund and paid separately.
The fund does not represent a cap on future liabilities, and the total cost to the company is still unknown, and likely to remain that way for years or even decades to come.
BP To Survive
But it does achieve a number of things…
1) Assures President Obama that the company is committed to, can, and will pay for the damage its spewing well is causing to the USA.
2) Assures the people immediately affected by the spill, specifically local businesses and employees, that they can and will get compensation.
3) Removes some of the uncertainty surrounding BP's survival.
In US last night, BP's shares reversed earlier losses to close up 45 cents, or 1.4 percent, at $32.85. In early trading in the UK, they rose some 7% to 385p. Still, the shares are still down almost 50% since the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded on April 20, killing 11 workers, wiping about £50 billion off the value of the company.
On Bloomberg, Jason Kenney of ING said:
"This move protects the long-term value of BP and draws a line in the sand for the speculation and wild uncertainty that's been thrown around…This doesn't mean the downfall of BP; it can get through this."
A Sad & Sorry Episode
Get through it they will, but this whole sad and sorry episode will leave an indelible mark on BP.
Financially, it will take them years to rebuild. As part of setting up the compensation fund, BP said it intends to implement a significant reduction in organic capital spending and to increase planned divestments to approximately $10 billion over the next twelve months.
Perhaps this is something they should have, or would have done anyway, and the politics of the moment allows them to get at least one brownie point for this measure.
BP's cash flows from operations are expected to exceed $30 billion in 2010, before taking into consideration costs related to the Deepwater Horizon spill, and their gearing level remains at the bottom of its targeted band of 20-30%.
A New Name Coming For BP
Time, and $20 billion, are usually great healers, although in this case, all that oil, estimated by some now to be in the vicinity of 50,000 barrels per day, surely must do some serious, irrecoverable damage.
But in the years ahead, BP, complete with a new corporate name (suggestions in the comments boxes below, please), will recover from this disaster.
BP No Longer A Buy?
The dividend will be resumed, although likely starting from a lower base. As for the shares, it really is anyone's guess. Although I argued recently BP was a buy, I'm not so sure today. My caution is twofold…
1) Almost uniform bullishness. I was astounded at the result of our recent Duelling Fools poll, where 71% of voters thought BP a buy, versus only 13% voting to sell. When the masses zig, I want to zag.
2) Why take the risk with BP, whose shares need to rise 100% to get back to their pre-disaster level, when there are plenty of other dirt-cheap blue chip shares out there?
BP shares should be all right in the long-term. $30 billion cash flow from operations, per annum, goes a long way. I just wouldn't bank on the shares flying significantly higher in the coming months.
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> Bruce Jackson has an interest in BP, sadly bought before the disaster. He has not bought more since, and nor has he sold any… yet.