A Mobile Power Play

Published in Company Comment on 29 October 2009

China Shoto is a prospect to phone home about.

Battery manufacturer China Shoto (LSE: CHNS) has shown remarkable growth over the past few years. Since 2004, revenues have risen almost tenfold, from £18.7m to £183m. Pre-tax profits have shot up from £1.8m to £11.6m. 

For 2009, house broker Seymour Pierce estimates the firm will deliver a pre-tax profit of £12.5m on revenues of £200m.

Latest results

China Shoto's latest set of interim results for the six months ending 30 June 2009 showed revenues up 41% at £96m while pre-tax profits increased 48% to £6.4m. 

Revenues from the sale of back up batteries account for the vast majority of sales (over 93% in this instance). These back up batteries are used to power telecom masts in the event of grid power failure and are higher margin than the company's 'power' type batteries used in electric scooters.

You won't be surprised to hear that China Shoto's main customers are various subsidiaries or branches of all three of China's telecommunication operators (China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom). Indeed, nearly 90% of total sales come from these firms.

China's GDP grew by 7.1% during the first six months of 2009, driven by the Chinese Government's £375bn economic stimulus package. This saw massive investment in new domestic infrastructure projects. That's obviously great news for companies like China Shoto.

However, the current market value is just £48m. Despite the company's tremendous promise, there are some areas of concern.

The disappearing dividend

Surprisingly, given the strength of these interim results, China Shoto revealed that it would not be paying an interim dividend as it is conserving cash for a planned battery recycling plant. 

The plant will enable up to 100,000 used batteries to be recycled each year. The key driver is an effort to improve its environmental credentials in the face of stricter 'green' tendering requirements from customers, as well as savings that it will make on raw materials.

Observers believe the plant will cost in the region of £20m and be fully operational by 2011 -- although this date may be a conservative estimate, given the pace of development in China.

That said, given that last year's interim dividend payment of 1.5p cost the company just £350,000 and it has £20m in net cash, this decision seems strange. It possibly indicates potential cash flow problems, or at least the fear of them. Looking at the most recent cash flow statement, £12.8m flowed out of the business during the last six months.

China Shoto itself alluded to this by referring in its interims to a "change in certain clients' payment delivery times during this current year due to global economic conditions". A spokesperson for the company explained that it was "confident it will be over that glitch" and will look again at resuming a dividend payment at year end.

Valuation

China Shoto's share price has dropped recently and is around 210p. This puts it on a prospective PE ratio of 4.5. It certainly seems an attractive prospect and this dip may well be a good buying opportunity.

In a note issued in September, Seymour Pierce appeared confident that China Shoto would pay a 5p full-year dividend (which would give a prospective yield of 2.4%). Still, the cautious might want to investigate a little further and wait to see if it does resume a dividend payment at year end before committing themselves. 

In any case, this is certainly one company worth keeping an eye on. For more on this company, you can also read this review of its 2009 AGM.

More from Chris Menon:

Share & subscribe

Comments

The opinions expressed here are those of the individual writers and are not representative of The Motley Fool. If you spot any comments that are unsuitable hit the flag to alert our moderators.

Proselenes 29 Oct 2009 , 5:13pm

Surprised you forgot to mention the debt levels but at least you did mention the lack of cash (cash was certainly getting very low which is why the interim dividend was stopped).

No point talking market cap if you avoid mentioning the levels of borrowing currently in place to compare.

This company has horrendous swings in working cap (H1 out and H2 back in) and all it takes is some problems in H2 and suddenly cash is a major issue. It must have been close to the wire for the interim dividend to be cut.

This is all very fine but everyone knows their major customers are ones which pay late in the typical Chinese late payment cycle.

What happens next year, if the business grows more does it mean a cash call at end of the financial year to get enough money to survive the massive drain on cash in H1 2010 ?

For sure 2009 H2 cash should come back and strongly (holders hope) but again it will flow out in a large manner in H1 2010 and if they have not more funds next year then you may see a cash call to pay down debt and fund working cap once they get a bit of hype going with the year end figures perhaps.

Who knows - if you want China exposure for sure WCC is far superior to CHNS in my view.

hansel101 30 Oct 2009 , 10:04am

Ah, good old Prosolenes. According to him only a few months ago CHNS was the best stock since sliced bread. Of course now he's sold he has his own agenda.

At the interims CHNS had £20m net cash, so were extremely healthy. Indeed, their current m/cap is still less than their tangible NAV (as well as trading on a P/E of only 4).

CHNS' non-exec director has confirmed that prior to analysis of the potential cost of building a lead recycling factory - which would in just a few months bring about a step-change in CHNS' proftability - the dividend has likely merely been postponed until the year end. CHNS has done this before, so it's no surprise - they have cautious directors, which is fine by me - and they have plenty of unused bank facilities to utilise even if their cash pile comes down.

A P/E of 4 discounts any risk and more, and takes no account of not only the global prospects in the core telecoms business, but also their prospects in:

- wind power
- solar power
- growth in Chinese power infrastructure
- railways expansion
- nuclear power expansion
- electric bikes and cars

For info, a shareholder and poster on ADVFN recently visited CHNS' factory and spoke to management - he's hoping to set up distribution channels for them in the UK and Europe. perhaps his positive comments are more worthwhile than any others:

http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=10937254&from=8010

Join the conversation

Please take note - some tags have changed.

Line breaks are converted automatically.

You may use the following tags in your post: [b]bolded text[/b], [i]italicised text[/i]. All other tags will be removed from your post.

If you want to add a link, please ensure you type it as http://www.fool.co.uk as opposed to www.fool.co.uk.

Hello stranger

To add your own comment, please login.

Not yet registered? Register now.