Profiting From The Property Meltdown

Published in Company Comment on 17 June 2009

This business is taking advantage of the downturn and buying at 9% yields.

Last year I told you about one of the most appealing shares in commercial property. London & Stamford (LSE: LSP) had cropped up on my radar for Champion Shares after joining AIM during 2007. It raised £238m and was basically a cash shell looking to take advantage of distressed sellers in the sector.

I thought a particular attraction to London was the track record of its management. The board's original venture was sold in 1989 for £278m after tripling shareholders' money during a three-year stock market stint. The managers then formed Pillar Property in 1991, which was sold in 2005 for £811m after achieving a 22% annual average return following its 1994 flotation.

So far at least, London has performed well. The price has risen from 102p to 114p since my original write-up, while the FTSE 100 index has dived from about 6,000 to around 4,400. I also see sector heavyweights British Land (LSE: BLND) and Land Securities (LSE: LAND) have fallen 45% and 65% respectively.

9% yields

Certainly London appears to be picking some cheap assets at the moment. Recent statements have announced the purchase of a retail park in Liverpool for £61m, a distribution centre in Wellingborough for £20m and an office in Leeds of £38m -- all on 9% or so gross rental yields. London has also acquired a 16% stake in the Meadowhall shopping centre on a 6.75% gross yield. Interestingly, the seasoned management claimed last week that "the high point in yields may already have been reached where income is seen as secure and sustainable."

Still, I don't think I'd buy London right now. Its last results showed net assets of £292m, but the market cap at 114p is £325m. The premium suggests investors currently anticipate further bargain deals and/or favourable property re-valuations. Personally I'd only look to invest when the share price trades at or below book value, in order to capture a greater part of London's returns.

Premium to cash

It's a similar story at Max Property (LSE: MAX), another AIM share that is looking to snap up bargain properties. It raised £200m when it joined the market last month and its management has a decent record, too. The directors' first venture earned 34% average annual returns between 1987 and 1997, while the second generated 25% average yearly returns between 1997 and 2003. Even so, I'm not tempted to pay a premium for Max's cash pile when the market cap is £240m at 120p per share. I suspect fellow 'vulture fund' NewRiver Retail Capital, which is looking to raise £250m through an imminent AIM flotation, will also trade at a premium to its war chest.

So at the moment, I'd rather hunt through the property sector myself for possible bargains. Indeed, last year I also spotlighted a commercial property business that I did recommend for Champion Shares. Back then I thought it offered some of the most durable executives in the industry plus a 14% gross rental yield. I believed it was an attractive recommendation then and I feel it remains an attractive recommendation now. 

In the meantime, I think it could pay to keep watch on London & Stamford, Max Property and NewRiver Retail, if only to learn what assets and valuations the sector experts find attractive.

Maynard writes Champion Shares, the Fool's share-tipping newsletter. This free 30-day trial provides full access to the index-beating service, and reveals all of his past and present recommendations. There is no obligation to subscribe.

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Comments

The opinions expressed here are those of the individual writers and are not representative of The Motley Fool. If you spot any comments that are unsuitable hit the flag to alert our moderators.

supersol42 18 Jun 2009 , 1:39pm

The NAV is based on current depressed real estate prices; as ever, the share price is just a function of the usual ongoing beauty contest.

Fingered 30 Jun 2009 , 12:18am

More peddling of stock..........

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