Here Are Tomorrow's Big Winners

Published in Company Comment on 17 June 2009

If you have time on your side, you could be a big winner by buying cheap shares today.

Retirees face the biggest threat to their financial security they've ever encountered. The fifty-something year-olds are grieving over all the money they've lost in the bear market. Yet even amid all the gloom and doom, there's one group of potential investors who will end up being the big winners from the market's swoon: those under 40.

Most of the time, you don't hear much advice geared toward younger investors. One reason why people who are just starting out don't get much attention is that they typically don't have much money yet, and so their value to financial institutions in generating current profits is severely limited.

But those same attributes also put younger investors in an enviable position right now. Consider:

  • Many younger people haven't even started investing yet. Coming in fresh, they don't already have big losses hanging over their heads. And most of those who did get an early start haven't saved enough wealth for their losses to be all that big -- at least in comparison to their older counterparts.

  • With 30 years or so before you'll need your money for retirement, you have plenty of time to invest for the long haul -- and all the flexibility you need to consider whatever investments are most likely to get you to your financial goals.

  • The market's drop has made shares a whole lot cheaper. Young investors looking to buy stocks now will be able to pick up shares of quality companies a lot more inexpensively than they would have just a couple of years ago.

So, if you haven't started investing yet -- or you're not sure you're on the right path -- then here are a few things for you to think about.

Risk Is Lower

After the big market drop, shares may seem incredibly risky. Many still are. Yet, in one sense, shares are a lot less risky than they were during the bull market -- since most share prices have fallen, you can't lose as much on a given number of shares as you could have when shares were at their peak.

As an example, take a look at these shares:

StockPrice 1 Year AgoCurrent Price
Land Securities (LSE: LAND)1,385p491p
BT Group (LSE: BT-A)214p102p
Man Group (LSE: EMG)622p236p

These and many other shares have lost 50% or more of their value since the beginning of the bear market. If you buy a share of these companies today, the most you can possibly lose is what you pay for them. But if you bought that share a year ago, you've already lost that much per share -- and you could still lose a whole lot more.

Meanwhile, while existing shareholders will have to see big gains just to break even on their investments, new investors can reap huge rewards. Shareholders in companies like Taylor Wimpey (LSE: TW) and Royal Bank Of Scotland (LSE: RBS) who invested near recent bottoms have already seen amazing multibagger gains. But even after their big run-up, they're still trading below the levels they did during 2008 -- in some cases, well below.

Time Is On Your Side

Not only are share valuations attractive, but with a 30-year time horizon, you're in no hurry to see shares recover. Older investors would be taking a risk buying in this environment, since shares could potentially stagnate for years before moving higher. However, you might actually prefer that stocks stay low for a while, since it would let you buy more shares cheaply, rather than having to pay more later.

That time also gives you the flexibility to make investments in more growth orientated companies, like QinetiQ (LSE: QQ) or Autonomy (LSE: AU). These are a little more risky, but when you're young, you can bounce back more easily from setbacks, and the successes do you the most good in setting the stage for your future investing career.

If you're a young investor, don't waste the opportunity you have today. Start creating an investing plan you can follow. The sooner you start, the better your chances are at a brighter future.

More on the economy and the markets:

> If you're in the market for buying shares, consider opening an online broker account with The Motley Fool's Share Dealing Service. You can buy and sell shares in real time for a flat rate of just £10. Click here to find out how you can open an account for free today. There is no obligation to trade.

> A version of this article was originally published on Fool.com. It has been updated by Bruce Jackson.

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Comments

The opinions expressed here are those of the individual writers and are not representative of The Motley Fool. If you spot any comments that are unsuitable hit the flag to alert our moderators.

moneymouth77 17 Jun 2009 , 10:16am

The thought of buying shares now is not exactly appealing. The market is fluctuating massively, there's no sureity and no good hypotheses out there as to the market's long term capability... I think this is a pipe dream.

HenryScottTuke 17 Jun 2009 , 6:13pm

What a ridiculous article. Effectively Dan is saying buy now because even if you lose money, you haven't lost as much as if you had bought at the peak.

mfnb 17 Jun 2009 , 8:55pm

Buying shares on historic pricing is falsely based.
(in my opinion)
1) Just because they are half what they were (previously) does not necessarily qualify them to be cheap now.
2) without reviewing all their details, eg assets, capital, debts, income, p/e, etc. and to simply buy because the price has fallen is, in my view, like sending some one to cross the road blindfold.
Therefore, to incite young people to buy, as suggested in this article is, to say the least, very misleading.
Not wishing to deride the article I find it difficult to say anything to commend it.
jt.

theoldone1 17 Jun 2009 , 10:15pm

Hi
I think the points made in the article are spot on. The wild variation in prices is a result of the wise playing games so they can earn (or better still use other peioples money to justify) their bloated bonuses. The reality is that most firms are money making machines and if you take the time and trouble you can find out what a fair value for them is and buy them now at a heavily discounted price. With interest rates hovering near zero or negative I'm getting regular dividend cheques which represent payments every month. I realise this may go down but so what! Even if it halfs I'm still doing much better than the High Street Building Societies where I'm forced to pay tax on already taxed money at pathetic rates of interest.

Can't remeber who said it but buy when there's blood on the streets and sell on the sound of cheering.

I'm putting evrything I've got in to shares.

The old one 1

theoldone1 17 Jun 2009 , 10:15pm

Hi
I think the points made in the article are spot on. The wild variation in prices is a result of the wise playing games so they can earn (or better still use other peioples money to justify) their bloated bonuses. The reality is that most firms are money making machines and if you take the time and trouble you can find out what a fair value for them is and buy them now at a heavily discounted price. With interest rates hovering near zero or negative I'm getting regular dividend cheques which represent payments every month. I realise this may go down but so what! Even if it halfs I'm still doing much better than the High Street Building Societies where I'm forced to pay tax on already taxed money at pathetic rates of interest.

Can't remeber who said it but buy when there's blood on the streets and sell on the sound of cheering.

I'm putting evrything I've got in to shares.

The old one 1

thirty06 19 Jun 2009 , 9:41am

>Yet, in one sense, shares are a lot less risky than >they were during the bull market -- since most >share prices have fallen, you can't lose as much on >a given number of shares as you could have when >shares were at their peak.

Run that by me again. Because a tranche of 1000 shares is worth half what it was last year, you can't lose as much as you could when it was worth twice as much as it is now.

Well in the instance I've chosen, you can lose as much again, but I guess if they've lost three quarters of their PRICE (not value) then you could only lose a third of what has already been lost.

You can still lose the lot though, so choosing shares who's price charts look like a dangerous ski slope is hardly the route to security and this mathematical quirk is irrelevant, bordering on fol-de-rol and tantamount to taradiddle.

This article has no net worth and should be delisted.

KarlMarx2009 20 Jun 2009 , 7:29pm

Hi,

I don't think the 3 shares suggested would be on my shopping list. I'd avoid all financial shares.
As for the people who want this article delisted or removed who are you kidding?
Of course buying shares now is the only way of making a return. My partners ISA of self chosen shares is up 195% and my investment account is showing 98%. Yet back in March we were losers.
Stick to your 1.5-3.5% ISA.
The Stock Market is way down from its peak so the only way is up!
Of course if Capitalism fails then all investments are dust and I'll be a very happy socialist revolutionary!
After all its the working class who are bearing the brunt of this slump world wide.
But please if you don't have the bottle to make a risky investment don't deplore those that do!

I'd rather be decapitating MPs, Judges, Company Directors, Whitehall Mandarins, Estate Agents, Solicitors, Consultants, Royalty and other members of the Aristocracy in the cut and thust of the revolution but I suspect I'll be somewhere sunny counting my ill gotten gains!

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