Fortunes Have Been Made In Just Six Weeks

Banks and even the wider economy benefitted massively from taxpayer largesse. RBSshare price has trebled-is it fair that speculators (the banks) profit yet again at someone else's expense?

Terrapin1 - "RBSshare price has trebled-is it fair that speculators (the banks) profit yet again at someone else's expense?

Hang on as the taxpayer owns 70% surely this is a good thing for the taxpayer and a welcome step towards repayment!!!

colin106 / terrapin....... still waiting for signs of our stinking rich society shedding the symptoms of such wealth.......... how can anyone pretend there is a serious downturn when every Friday between 3.30 and 6.30 it is virtually impossible to travel more than 20mph because of the volume of drivers with swanky cars clogging up our roads.... if the doom and gloomers were to have any credibility the roads would be half empty by now..... this "downturn" or whatever you want to call it is a mere superstructural blip, something for the chattering classes to whine on about for a while but in the real world capitalism keeps marching on and each generation gets richer than the one before..... "sinking ship" is an illusion

Advice is only worth paying for, but only if it's good advice.

Now if you Publish a 5 year performance record for the "Champion Shares" service that shows outperformance over this period, I might just subscribe.

"Stinking rich" - "swanky cars" - something to see there Mr supasap!

... and look at the FTSE 250 go -- it is rising at twice the rate of the FTSE 100 and has risen 30%

the credibility and objective problem with the Fool continually talking up shares is the fact you are selling a service, which you endless promote at the foot of everyone of these articles.

I agree with theRealGrinch as far as the Motley Fool's share service is concerned. There is only one way for this division of TMF to make commission - by being sometimes unduly optimistic about the economic situation. This is not good. When it is a matter of comparing one provider with another i.e. electricity, gas, telephone services, banks etcetera - they do a useful job, providing they get their facts right and do proper research, which is sometimes not the case.

colin 106 to continue........ every time I challenge the doom and gloomers about the facts of our society there never comes anything back except more doom and gloom tales but none of them ever explain that while nearly a year into the downturn there are all these signs of wealth that persist and will still persist........ eg road congestion.... and the only answer is that in the real world most people (emphasis on most not the minority of victims) are still working and spending and clogging up the roads and eating and drinking and shopping to excess.... as they were in the boom times..... this is just a minor hiccup in the inexorable path of capitalist expansion making everyone materially better off by miles.... any facts to negate this?

Anybody got a chart on traffic congestion statistics? I wonder what the top economists of the world would think of it. No doubt all would have different opinions on its importance in terms of being a leading or lagging indicator for example.

I do hope Bruce when, as you say, "you didn't back up the lorry" that you didn't buy your Barclays shares at the peak in Feb 07 and have been hoping for recovery all this time - the +224% you refer to translates to -70% otherwise.

Supasap, understand the thinking. However forgive me if i pass up gauging the turns and twists of this downturn in multiple markets based on metrics such as TV dimensions, telephony airtime, domestic waste, scarcity of window cleaners etc etc........sorry, not for me. . I use a different toolset to a ) protect my wealth and b) iuncrease it......Sorry, this isn't just a "blip like the 1990's" aqccording to my alternative reckoning based on a totally different thinking methodology and metrics.

hi Fingered ...... wow a different toolset.... beyond the reach of us mere mortals..... I think you are missing the point..... whether it is official indexes or your "exclusive" insight into what is happening, most people simply look around and see that what they care about in terms of material things eg jobs, cars, houses, gadgets, holidays, clothes, and all the glorious things created through the capitalist mode of production are still there in abundance for most of them..... and this was the same in the 1990's recession and in the 1980's ..... most of us are better off... hence the persistence of all the signs of wealth which I outline...... to say that you have special insight into how we are not wealthy when all the empirical evidence suggests that most of us are (again excluding the victims which as always in recessions constitute the minority) is quite irrational..... chill out and enjoy the fruits of the system

Never ssaid it was beyond the point of mere mortals. you did. Never said it was exclusive. you did. Never said i had special insight into why we aren't wealthy,you did. ( not sure who the "we" is, nor am I worried by it). Irrational - mmh. now there's a clue for yourself. Oh I'm more chilled and enjoying the fruits of the system more than you could possibly imagine. Bye. bye.

The investment basis of this article leaves a lot to be desired. The thrust of it is, buy high now because some stocks are up 225% or whatever from their lows. Rationale? None. Referencing and flawed investment analysis by the writer? Completely.

Where is economic growth going to come from?
What are rising taxes going to do to economic growth?
What will inevitable interest rate rises do to growth?
How are indebted consumers going to drive growth?

Answer these questions for once!

Excellent questions porters5........


I offer a perspective:

Your list of 4q's have a common theme - growth.

My "shorter" term perspective is one of focusing upon the higher risk probability of contraction occuring and how to personally mitigate those
impacts.

My longer term perspective on impacts to growth is a different strategy.


So in turn -

Where is economic growth going to come from?
Growth for whom and when? - I see on ongoing underlying shift in wealth occuring from West to East occuring.
- employment offshoring for example
- tripod manufacturing techniques.


What are rising taxes going to do to economic growth?
Rising taxes for whom? - with unemployment figures continuing to rise rising, I suggest then the numbers of tax payers diminishes realtive to supporting non-taxpayers.
Couple that with demographics of falling birth rates and the problem is exacerbated.
- Bit of a problem for the UK.
Without government spending cuts, net effect might be to raise national sovereign debt levels such that future generations are encumbered.
Flip side is to increase spending as a fiscal stimulus of course to drive a Government led, not consumer led, recovery.

What will inevitable interest rate rises do to growth?
Just as deflation is devastating ( though some may dismiss as not possibly occurring), the possibility of equally devastating hyper-inflation further down the road cannot be fully ruled out.
Typically the central banks in my view do not pro-actively lead the markets with policy upon the monetary instrument of interet rates, but they
LAG the markets in response to data which is "rear - view mirror".
The fundamental goal of this instrument is to encourage or discourage lending therbey increasing or decreasing the velocity of money flowing around the economy. - No more, no less - it doesn't FORCE the lending or borrowing by banks, consumers and businesses.
If you would like a predictive insight into which way the central banks are most likely going to move interest rates next befroe they know it themselves - track the yields on 3 month government debt bonds.

chancer9 - I live in the North so best not to make assumptions......the north-south divide is another media myth - most of the north is like the rest of the country - stinking rich by current world standards and rich by standards of the 1930's and where most people have kept their jobs and most are employed in the service sector - the only difference is an accent - forget the stereotypes, embourgeoisement of the old Labour landscape happened years ago. The North's roads are clogged up with high spec cars too. As for where the growth is coming from it is just so old fashioned to think about the simplistic model of manufacturing or making things, that is for the poorer countries to do, the money is made in the knowledge based sector whether this is technology, construction, engineering, defence and finance.... it is based upon know how and expertise.... the free market is great at directing resources to where the money is and we have many clever people in this country with entrepreneurial flair to ensure we remain a very wealthy nation.

(Do you have any statistics about reduced traffic by the way..... I wish in some ways this would happen but it hasn't but please let me know where this greener town or city is)

I was somewhat surprised Newsnight didn't use your alternative toolset and methodology when researching the validity of the IMF statements with respect to where UK is headed.

I thought chancer was going to provide this ........ but you could rely on your own observations rather than mystical charts and figures..... like the story where one man explored the weather conditions from his laboratory using complicated forecasts and spreadsheets and worried about how terrible it was whilst the other man went outside and enjoyed the glorious sunshine

don't worry they will soon all be knocking on your door trying to undercut each other as unemployment reaches Zimbabwe proportions and none of us can afford to own or use a car through lack of money .... after all this is not just a recession it is really different this time as per the ides of March...... just when i stop listening to the news and leave the house nothing much has changed in the real world.... although it is sunnier than earlier

just applied my latest model..... and the queues have gone down 80% in line with the reduction of food on the shelves..... retailers just couldn't sell any stuff to the impoverished masses ..... it may be different if I visited a supermarket but the models cannot be wrong can they

let's hope one is not crushed in the food parcel rush

Spot on BugsMunny! Those that have been "drip feeding in" otherwise known as the good old "pound cost averaging down" strategy are using a strategy that is fundamentally FLAWED during a secular bear market. They too will I suspect get their drip fed, drip dry , shiny new stock shirts shredded by the bears in the next downturn stage too.