3 Hated Shares That Could Bounce Higher

Published in Investing on 4 February 2013

Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LON:LLOY), Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (LON:RBS) and BP plc (LON:BP) are three of the shares that investors rushed to sell in January.

Data supplied by online stockbroker Selftrade shows that in January, these stocks were three of the most frequently sold.

Although other investors have been selling, I see clear value in all of these shares. I expect that in the coming months, investors that sold in January may experience an unpleasant bout of seller's remorse.

Lloyds Banking Group

Although shares in Lloyds Banking Group (LSE: LLOY) (NYSE: LYG.US) are up 6.8% so far this year, they have fallen by a similar amount since the middle of January.

Lloyds was the best performing FTSE 100 share of 2012. It is inevitable that its rise would attract some profit takers.

I believe that the shares could still move significantly higher. Between July 2010 and March 2011, shares in Lloyds traded for over 60p. This was followed by the PPI scandal and Lloyds was forced to set aside billions in compensation.

However, as Lloyds starts to move on from PPI, I expect that the shares could enjoy a significant re-rating.

Royal Bank of Scotland

Shares in Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE: RBS) fell heavily last week. Some analysts moved to downgrade the bank amid fears that the bank would face a heavy fine for its involvement in the LIBOR scandal.

In recent weeks, the sector has been hit by a series of negative stories. In addition to LIBOR fines, there is the likelihood that RBS will have to announce a provision for interest rate swap miselling. Add in some of the noises coming from the government on banking reform and it is easy to see why the shares have lost 10% in the last two weeks.

I think that this misery might be creating an opportunity to buy RBS shares. Sentiment could turn quickly if RBS can post reassuring results on 28 February.

BP

BP (LSE: BP) (NYSE: BP.US) shares have had a great start to the year. Investors now believe that future fines for BP's involvement in the Gulf of Mexico oil spill of 2010 may be less than was previously anticipated.

The expectation is that BP will report a big decline in profits for 2012. Nevertheless, that still leaves the shares on an attractive valuation. Using consensus forecasts for 2013, BP is on a price-to-earnings ratio of 8 and offers a dividend yield of 5.7%.

There is room for that yield to increase even further. Before the Gulf disaster, BP paid an annual dividend totalling $0.57. If the payout can get back to that level, then the shares would yield 7.8%.

Despite the market's rise in 2013, BP is not the only great income opportunity remaining. Analysts here at the Motley Fool have scoured the European large-cap markets to find big dividend payers that could reward an investment. They have prepared a comprehensive, detailed report on what they believe is one of the very best opportunities available today. The report is entirely free and discusses a share that comes with a 5.7% dividend and has 21% of share price upside to target. Just click here to get the report delivered to your inbox and learn more about this share today.

> David owns shares in Lloyds Banking and Royal Bank of Scotland but none of the other shares mentioned.

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Comments

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vinchainsaw 04 Feb 2013 , 5:16pm

Problem with BP is that it is not the same company as before the spill. They've sold off assets to raise the cash to pay the fines.
All that means is that the profit expectations, and thus also the NPV of future cashflows, will be lower than before the spill.

I have the misfortune to bank with RBS (corporate) and they just dont seem up to the game. three times they've had IT failures over the last 18 months. Its got so common they no longer even make the news.

Im using an old Buffetism; buy quality companies at reasonable prices. I dont feel they're a quality company and, along with Lloyds, the government exit is still on the horizon at some point which will inevitably depress the share price.

Inagi 05 Feb 2013 , 10:27am

Why is it inevitable that the government selling their shares in Lloyds would depress the share price?

That the government is willing to take the stabilisers off, should indicate to investors that Lloyds is recovering. The government is hardly likely to withdraw its support if they think that would lead to a de-stabilising of one Britain's key banks.

vinchainsaw 05 Feb 2013 , 12:01pm

Supply and demand Inago. If the market is flooded with shares (government holds 90% of Lloyds shares), the share price will inevitably be depressed.

I have a holding in a share that is also held by some PE investors.
They announced yesterday they were going to sell 15% of their holdings and the share dropped 5% immediately, with more weakness forecast.

salmo365 05 Feb 2013 , 1:27pm

The government doesn't own 90% of Lloyds. That's RBS.

The governmetn owns about 45%. Still a massive amount to dump on the market, but I doubt they would do it in one go.

ANuvver 05 Feb 2013 , 5:35pm

There would still be an inevitable "soft ceiling" on the stock for some time. I agree with vin.

There's also the issue of investors getting caught in the crossfire over the political unpopularity of bank dividends.

So limited medium-term upside in SP and the likelihood of dividend suppression rule Lloyds and RBS out for me.

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