Will The FTSE 100 Hit A 10-Year High In 2013?

Published in Investing on 24 January 2013

Despite the financial crisis and the eurozone calamity, the FTSE 100 is close to a 10-year high.

More than five years after the onset of the credit crunch, the FTSE 100 is fighting fit. So far in 2013, the index is up 5.8%. In the last six months alone, it it has risen 13.5%.

This huge rise means that the index is now within reach of a 10-year high. According to my data, the FTSE 100 is 7.8% off its highest point of the last 10 years: 6732.40 on 15th June 2007.

I believe that there are three big reasons why further rises could be in store. Increases that could take the index above its highest point of the last decade.

Bulls still the minority

Investor confidence in the last decade has been battered by the credit crunch, financial crisis and the eurozone panic. I believe that sentiment toward shares is still very negative. However, the sustained rises that the FTSE 100 has been delivering could help turn this sentiment around. Rises give many investors confidence -- this could lead to more buying and price increases. The result would be a ratcheting upward of indices like the FTSE 100.

Shares are one of the best bets around

After year of inflation-busting rises, house prices have recently been moribund. The rates that people can earn on cash deposits are close to nil. Meanwhile, shares have been performing very well. Despite recent rises, many blue-chip companies are still paying dividends of around 5-6%. I cannot think of any assets that are offering returns like shares are doing today.

The FTSE 100's most important shares are cheap

The FTSE 100 is a market-weighted index. This means that not all of its constituents have the same pull on its value -- bigger market cap companies at the top end have more influence than the smaller companies. Titan stocks like Royal Dutch Shell, Vodafone, HSBC, BP and GlaxoSmithKline have a huge effect on the index. In fact, these five companies alone make up 32% of the entire value of the FTSE 100 index.

All five are cheap right now and have the potential to move significantly higher in 2013, pushing the FTSE 100 toward record highs.

Big blue-chips are one of the best sources of secure investment income available. It is investing in high-income shares that made top fund manager Neil Woodford into one of the world's most respected investors. To help you to learn from this market-thrashing expert, the Motley Fool has prepared a free report "8 Shares Held By Britain's Super Investor". This report could change the way you invest forever. Click here to get your free copy today.

> David owns shares in Vodafone but none of the other companies mentioned. The Motley Fool has recommended shares in Vodafone.

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Comments

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breelander 24 Jan 2013 , 6:48pm

the FTSE 100 is 7.8% off its highest point of the last 10 years: 6732.40 on 15th June 2007.

Don't get too excited yet. Adjusting for inlation that peak from 2007 is about 7,600 in today's money. Still, that just strengthens your argument that "further rises could be in store", a sentiment with which I agree.

atilliator 24 Jan 2013 , 10:32pm

Here we go again. FTSE over 6,000. Markets may have crashed in the past, but this time it's different.

hcidata 25 Jan 2013 , 4:12pm

Don't forget the FTSE100 reached 6930 at the end of 1999. I wonder what that is in today's money.

goodlifer 26 Jan 2013 , 10:21pm

hcidata
"Don't forget the FTSE100 reached 6930 at the end of 1999. I wonder what that is in today's money."

Assume 4% inflation and you get around 4250.

goodlifer 27 Jan 2013 , 9:29pm

hcidata

You say you like to invest in industries which actually produce something, eg farming, and so do I.

How do you invest in farming on the LSE?

retire1asap 29 Jan 2013 , 5:37pm

breelander
That's a very good point regarding inflation that I haven't seen mentioned before. If your 7600 is the inflation adjusted equivalent of June 2007, that means that even at 6300 we are still 20% away from a comparable level, so not really anywhere near to a peak.

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