My Best Buys For 2013

Published in Investing on 2 January 2013

Here are a Fool's picks for the year ahead.

We have had the continuing, but gradually fading, rumblings of the eurozone crisis, the drama over the fiscal cliff, worries over a triple-dipping British economy, yet -- despite it all -- global equity markets are on the up. I am hopeful there will be more to come from this bull market in 2013. Here are my picks to ride that wave.

Dixons Retail

Ever since the credit crunch, the high street has been crumbling. Company after company has seen its shares trashed, as their business has been decimated.

Household names such as Woolworths, Zavvi, Borders and Threshers have gone to the wall. Other companies such as HMV and GAME Group seem to be teetering on the brink. Meanwhile, we had the onward march of the internet, and of supermarkets. This is the market red in tooth and claw.

So why on earth would I be tipping a high-street retailer? Well, for me, Dixons Retail (LSE: DXNS) is showing signs that it will come through the current wave of creative destruction. I see it as a survivor amid all the carnage. This view has been reinforced by the demise of its nearest competitor, Comet.

If the company's prospects are much improved by the bankruptcy of its arch-rival, that doesn't mean it should rest on its laurels. And it isn't: it has revamped its stores, positioning itself to take advantage of the boom in tablets and smartphones. It has been steadily cutting costs to bring its prices nearer and nearer to internet prices. And it also has websites so you can buy online as well as in-store.

Of course, this pick does not come without risk, but I see this as a contrarian play on Dixons successfully fusing the worlds of internet and high-street retailing. Could it be the Next of electrical retail? Here's hoping...

Tullett Prebon

One of the contrarian plays of moment is financials. Beaten-down shares such as Barclays and Aviva have recently been storming ahead.

Tullett Prebon (LSE: TLPR) is a financial share of a different kind: specifically, it is one of the largest inter-dealer money brokers in the world. It provides a range of services to clients such as commercial and investment banks.

Basically, if financial markets do well, Tullett Prebon does well. I am hopeful of a financial recovery that will push Tullett's shares higher. As it is currently on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.5, and a dividend yield of 6.2%, there is great potential for this contrarian play to rise in value.

Apple

It didn't take long after the passing of Steve Jobs for many to say that Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL.US) best days were behind it. Many said that Apple was passing the mantle of the world's greatest innovator to companies like Samsung and Google.

And yet the facts show that the iPhone 5 is selling faster than any iPhone before it, and its sales are greater than all other smartphones put together!

And that's not to mention the new iPad and the iPad mini. When these new sales figures start to come out, I expect Apple's share price to go through another bull phase. Apple's share price has fallen by nearly a third in recent months, and the company is now on a forward P/E ratio of just 9.

For a company that is currently the strongest force in world equity markets, this is a golden buying opportunity.

Russia

My final pick is an emerging market. After a torrid 2012, emerging markets are now cheap as chips, and I expect this value to out in 2013.

Of all the BRICs, I favour in particular Russia and China. I have harped on enough about China, but I also think there is a great outlook for Russia.

It is true this country battles corruption, but it is also by far the cheapest of the BRICs. Unlike almost every western economy, it has almost no government debt. It took the key step of entering the WTO in 2012, and the economy is steadily diversifying away from oil and gas. It also has a burgeoning consumer sector. Eventually, hopefully soon, this potential will blossom into profits.

Are you keen to learn more about investing? Have the Motley Fool's articles captured your imagination? Do you want to achieve a better return from your savings, but are not sure how? Well, take the first step by reading our free report, "What Every New Investor Must Learn".

> Prabhat owns shares in Dixons, Barclays, Aviva and Apple, and has a holding in Neptune Russia and Greater Russia, but owns no other shares mentioned in this article. His wife owns shares in Tullett Prebon. The Motley Fool owns shares in Google.

Share & subscribe

Comments

The opinions expressed here are those of the individual writers and are not representative of The Motley Fool. If you spot any comments that are unsuitable hit the flag to alert our moderators.

Erling2000 02 Jan 2013 , 1:25pm

So, what is the final pick for Russia? No stock mentioned, unless I have missed something?

LastChip 02 Jan 2013 , 1:35pm

"And yet the facts show that the iPhone 5 is selling faster than any iPhone before it, and its sales are greater than all other smartphones put together!"

Really? All the data I see shows the Samsung Galaxy S III as being the best selling smart phone worldwide for the third quarter 2012. As far as I'm aware, quarter four data has not yet been published. Where did you get your data from?

ANuvver 02 Jan 2013 , 2:19pm

Russia is still mired in kleptocracy. As soon as there's significant advantage to be had, the rug will move under you.

S novym godom moimi druzyami Duratskymi. Da ni pukha ni pera.
(HNY to my Foolish friends. And good luck.)

ps200 02 Jan 2013 , 7:36pm

@Erling2000: my personal pick is Neptune Russia and Greater Russia, but you could also go for an investment trust such as JP Morgan Russian Securities.

@LastChip: well spotted - I double-checked my facts and the 53% market share is actually only for the US! The iPhone 5 global market share will be less, but I couldn't find a figure for it.

Prabhat.

eccyman 03 Jan 2013 , 9:48am

Given that American courts now have a track record of shaking down foreign companies, it makes Russia look somewhat less risky.

ANuvver 04 Jan 2013 , 8:11am

eccyman:

Hmm. Halliburton suffering anything more than mild reputational damage over the Macondo spill would ruin a classic Hollywood-style British baddie story, wouldn't it.

As for the US banks - LIBOR wouldn't melt in their mouths, it seems.

Still Goldman Sachs heroically destroyed the Gaddafi family fortune, oops, sorry I mean the Libyan investment fund. At serious risk to life and Porsche, so they should maybe be congratulated? I won't mention Greece, or we'd be here all day.

Oh, alright then, I will. If a British investment bank had been involved in the "careful" preparation of, say, California's accounts for the purposes of maximising federal receipts, one suspects there'd be lawsuits for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Indemnity or not.

Cas21 04 Jan 2013 , 10:29am

Dixons? "It has been steadily cutting costs to bring its prices nearer and nearer to internet prices" Really? I went there for a cable after Christmas. Dixons price, £29.98, Tesco's price, £8.00, and if I could have been bothered to go on line and wait, the price could have been considerably less than that!

Dixons either have a very, very long way to go yet, or they are doing the old smoke and mirrors trick of having a few well publicised loss leaders to make their prices look good. I suspect it is all downhill from here for Dixons.

atilliator 04 Jan 2013 , 9:31pm

I have just seen a guy on YouTube really lay into Apple. He says that the latest smartphone from Apple is a pile of pony, and that Apple are finished. And just wait till the next smartphone from Samsung comes out...

Join the conversation

Please take note - some tags have changed.

Line breaks are converted automatically.

You may use the following tags in your post: [b]bolded text[/b], [i]italicised text[/i]. All other tags will be removed from your post.

If you want to add a link, please ensure you type it as http://www.fool.co.uk as opposed to www.fool.co.uk.

Hello stranger

To add your own comment, please login.

Not yet registered? Register now.