The One Great Reason To Buy Shares Today

Published in Investing on 14 September 2012

... or, if you prefer, 40 billion reasons!

At The Motley Fool, we think it's always a good time to buy shares. And on Thursday, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke gave us another great reason to be bullish.

In fact, not just one reason, but 40 billion reasons.

To nobody's surprise, the Fed has responded to US employment and housing market woes by launching a third bout of quantitative easing, QE3, which involves purchasing an extra $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities every month until the end of time (or until job numbers improve "substantially", whichever comes first).

It has also pledged to maintain its current stimulus programme, Operation Twist, until the end of the year, and hold interest rates at zero until at least the middle of 2015.

You can say this about the Yanks, they don't mess about. Germany, please note.

Q-weeeeeeeeeee!

The announcement sparked instant market euphoria. The Dow instantly rose 1.6% on the news the FTSE 100 was up 1.5% in the first 20 minutes of trading on Friday.

Resources stocks are inevitable beneficiaries. At time of writing, Fresnillo (LSE: FRES), Antofagasta (LSE: ANTO) and Kazakhmys (LSE: KAZ) are all up nearly 9%, while Rio Tinto (LSE: RIO) and BHP Billiton (LSE: BLT) are up 5%.

Banking stocks RBS (LSE: RBS) and Barclays (LSE: BARC) are also flying, while solid defensive blue chips such as Diageo (LSE: DGE) and GlaxoSmithKline (LSE: GSK) have fallen.

Risk on, as they say.

Calm down, dears

I don't expect this latest liquidity surge to sluice through stock markets with the same force as QE1 and QE2, which hit emerging-market shares and commodity prices like a tidal wave.

Virtual money printing simply isn't the novelty it was, and markets have learned it isn't a panacea. It will take a lot more time, effort and -- worryingly -- political will to pull the world out of its malaise.

Once markets have stopped celebrating this latest splurge, they will quickly return to fretting about the eurozone crisis, US fiscal cliff and Chinese hard landing.

That said, QE3 should help to buoy asset prices, month after month after month. Especially if the Chinese join in the fun (the Bank of England almost certainly will).

Let's all drink to dividends!

Inflation isn't all good news for stock markets. It pushes up company costs and erodes profit margins, unless they have the pricing power to pass their bills onto customers.

But shares are better placed to withstand the shock than cash or fixed-interest investments such as bonds. First, you get the capital growth, which should bob along nicely on a virtual sea of money printing.

Then you get the yield. Dividends are a good hedge against inflation, because a good company should increase their payout, year after year. If you're lucky, those dividend hikes will outpace inflation. Drinks giant Diageo, for example, recently upped its dividend payout by an inflation-busting 8%.

If inflation does come charging back in, a balanced portfolio of blue-chips should help you stay one step ahead.

FTSE fun

If you also think it's a good time to buy shares, you might like a FTSE 100 oil giant such as BP (LSE: BP) or Royal Dutch Shell (LSE: RDSB). Or maybe a supermarket such as Sainsbury's (LSE: SBRY) or Tesco (LSE: TSCO). Or a major property company such as Land Securities Group (LSE: LAND).

Or insurers Legal and General (LSE: LGEN) and Prudential (LSE: PRU). Or global consumer goods companies such as Reckitt Benckiser (LSE: RB) and Unilever (LSE: ULVR).

You can still expect markets to remain turbulent. Quantitative easing may have saved the world once, but it's unlikely to repeat the trick again, not without serious back-up.

But provided you're in this for the long term, you will be glad you were bullish as well.

Oils, Pharmaceuticals, Banks, Telecoms -- just where should you invest today? "The Market's Top Sectors" is the Motley Fool's latest guide to help Britain invest. Better. The report is free.

Further Motley Fool investment opportunities:

Harvey Jones holds BHP Billiton, RBS, Diageo, GlaxoSmithKline, BP, Royal Dutch Shell and Prudential. He doesn't own any other shares mentioned in this piece. The Motley Fool owns shares in Tesco.

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Comments

The opinions expressed here are those of the individual writers and are not representative of The Motley Fool. If you spot any comments that are unsuitable hit the flag to alert our moderators.

richjfool 14 Sep 2012 , 2:20pm

What buy shares today! There's no blood on the streets!
(It seems more like champagne and commodities).

I shan't be buying in this moment of euphoria. I'll wait for the next hiccough, be it Greece, Spain, or China.

ANuvver 14 Sep 2012 , 3:26pm

Seems Bernanke has announced an ongoing street blood mopping programme...

snoekie 14 Sep 2012 , 9:52pm

Definitely a time to stay out. As Graham said, be fearful when others are buying, and this is classic 08/9, when there followed a steep drop.

OK, agreed that the rise is probably part compensation for the adulteration of the currencies, them that do QE, but remember the debt will increase exponentially and that has to be repaid, or more QE (addictive innit?) and very soon there will be another adage coined to replace the analogies of Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe, and we are already, IMO, over the cusp, and wobbling wildly to stop heading down the well greased slope at a rate of knots, and nobody appears to give a damn, QE in the US, QE UK, and EZ heavily committed to conjuring up money out of thin air to buy sub junk bonds.

Phew, all that debt, growing at a rapid rate by the second, and it is the sucker citizens (not the politicians) that will have to stump up whilst the politicians bask in the inflation proof pensions, salaries and expenses, not suffering one iota because their sucker electorate are picking up the tab for their (politicians) insanity, instead of doing hard time for incompetent negligence and reckless disregard for the consequences of their borrowing, which has to be repaid.

And then there will be massive amounts of blood as the scalps are taken.

JohnnyCyclops 15 Sep 2012 , 9:52am

Last week was the time to buy. Not this week.

And on the broader issue... taking on more debt to get the West over its addiction to debt is like giving the hair of a dog to a drunk after a heavy night out.

ANuvver 16 Sep 2012 , 12:09am

I think inflation is pretty much an inevitable consequence of QE. It's just reflation by the only politically acceptable means.

The initial market reaction, however, is to grab higher beta prospects with little pricing power and ride them hard, put them away wet. Dangerous stuff. It's a traders' market. Get in if you want to, and good luck.

The extent to which defensives will benefit from the rally remains to be seen. My own feeling is that they'll lag but do okay out of things. My money's still on the tortoise.

goodlifer 16 Sep 2012 , 12:18pm

snoekie
" As Graham said, be fearful when others are buying, and this is classic 08/9, when there followed a steep drop."

Aren't you getting your Grahams muddled up with your Buffetts?

What Ben Graham actually says is that "Buy when the market's low, sell when it's high," isn't, in practice, quite as easy as it looks, but that bargains are always available if you care to look for them,
(Page 15 of my edition)

It's always amusing to read the forecasts of clever-clogs experts about what the market's going to do and when, as long as you remember they're wrong at least as often as they get it right.

goodlifer 16 Sep 2012 , 12:20pm
ANuvver 17 Sep 2012 , 3:10pm

goodlifer:

Ben Graham is the cornerstone of my investing, but I do feel some of his principles need updating.

He was operating at a time when information was not so widely available and assets didn't tend to move in lockstep (these days of risk on-off). Therefore, it's not so possible to *always* find bargains. In addition, very few shares nowadays ever meet his margin of safety, so his criteria, while sound, need diluting a little.

goodlifer 17 Sep 2012 , 8:48pm

"Very few shares nowadays ever meet his margin of safety."

Why do you say that?

Just reread his last chapter, and there doesn't seem to be a problem,

goodlifer 17 Sep 2012 , 8:56pm

"It's not so possible to *always* find bargains."

I've yet to find it impossible, but there's always a first time.
As for today, we're spoilt for choice.

goodlifer 18 Sep 2012 , 7:27am

"Assets didn't tend to move in lockstep (these days of risk on-off,)"

Way above my head, I'm afraid.
What on earth does it mean?

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