What A Weird Way To Lose Money

Published in Investing on 20 July 2012

The shocking new way investors are being taken for a ride

Something weird is going on in the world of finance.

I'm not talking about the Libor scandal, new money laundering allegations, or any one company or executive in particular.

I'm talking about one of the worst lending schemes I've read about in ages.

"Hopes of silver lining in negative bond yields"

That was the headline from the Financial Times earlier this week that caught my eye. It seems investors are actually paying some countries for the privilege of lending them money!

The six countries that will charge you for lending them money are Austria, Denmark, Germany, Finland, Switzerland and the Netherlands.

What a bizarre situation. But then we live in bizarre times when certain players in the financial industry reckon that great ways to make money include laundering cocaine-stained bank notes and manipulating interest rates.

It is little wonder that we are disillusioned and shocked by what is going on.

Is this the worst "investment" ever?

Austria will charge you 0.01% for loaning it money. Germany, meanwhile, charges 0.05%, and Switzerland will charge as much as 0.5% if you want to lend it money for two years.

The reason they can get away with this clever ruse is because the perception is that these six European countries are safe places to stash cash.

Consequently, investors are happy to pile in knowing that they'll get back less than they started with!

What is really ironic is that investors could easily get better returns by investing in businesses headquartered in those countries. Consider Switzerland, home of food company Nestle (OTC: NESN.PK), drugs developer Roche Holdings (OTC: RHHBY.PK) and crop protection firm Syngenta (OTC: SYNN.PK). These three companies sport respectable dividend yields of 2.2%, 4.0% and 2.5%, respectively – a far cry from the negative return offered by Switzerland's bonds right now.

So ask yourself this: would you rather lose 0.5% by lending money to Switzerland or invest in one of those Swiss firms that will pay you (via dividends) for owning their shares?

We could go through all six countries in turn and identify solid well-known businesses that would not look out of place in any portfolio (I have a few of them myself). Think German companies BASF (OTC: BAS.DE), Bayer (OTC: BAYN.PK) and E.ON (OTC: EOAN.PK). Think Danish brewer Carlsberg (OTC: CABGY.PK). Think Dutch beer maker Heineken (OTC: HEIA.PK) and Anglo-Dutch titans Royal Dutch Shell (LSE: RDSB) and Unilever (LSE: ULVR).

You're not doing much better

Before we get too carried away with finger-pointing and hand-wringing, we should ask ourselves this: are we not as guilty by leaving our money in our savings accounts when we should be making it work much harder?

Let's take a look at how some well-known UK companies have performed since the start of the year. Whitbread (LSE: WTB), the owner of Premier Inns and Costa Coffee, is up a whopping 34% since January; SAB Miller (LSE: SAB), the global brewer, is up 18%, and BT Group (LSE: BT-A) is also up 18%.

I haven't cherry-picked these examples.

If you look at the 100 companies that comprise the FTSE 100, a full 67 of them are higher today than at the start of the year. And we are only halfway through the year!

I am looking forward to the second half of 2012 with as much enthusiasm as I did at the start of the year, despite all the pessimism over the eurozone crisis. I hope you are, too.

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> David owns shares in Unilever, Royal Dutch Shell and BT Group.

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Comments

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forrado 20 Jul 2012 , 5:43pm

Strange it may be but it’s effectively an insurance play on the Euro breaking up. If a worse case scenario should come to pass within the next two years then by holding short-term sovereign debt of the likes of Austria, Denmark, Germany, Finland, Switzerland and the Netherlands - which are deemed to be the strongest economies of the region though admittedly not all Euro Zone members – will see the value of the currencies that the respective sovereign bonds are denominated in appreciate considerably.

ANuvver 20 Jul 2012 , 8:30pm

Interesting thought forrado.

In the fixed income space I've been doing just fine recently with UK and Emerging high-grade Corporates, plus a dollop of US junk. A lot of which is paying me in greenbacks, which I'm quite happy about too.

I do agree with David's premise, and as I recall he's opined elsewhere, the idea that sovereigns are in a late-stage bubble. But of course, bubbles can go on and on, and governments seem to have copious supplies of Fairy Liquid...

I appreciate that he makes the point for sake of comparison, but I'm not sure I'd be keen on investing in German companies. By the time you've been walloped on broker currency spread, withholding tax, church tax, etc, there's a lot of performance ground to make up. Plus you are being paid in Euros, which most FX guys would probably be happy to tell you is currently a one-way bet, the wrong way round!

F958B 21 Jul 2012 , 1:06pm

Brings a whole new angle to the 1970's phrase "certificates of confiscation".
If you're lucky, you'll get back less than you put in.
If you're lucky, you'll only lose several percent per year of buying power due to inflation.
If you're lucky, the government concerned will not default on the bond when the time comes to pay.

Looks like a return-free risk, to me.

rober00 23 Jul 2012 , 5:15pm

I have money invested in US CDOs through a fund that has returned a total of 20% in the last 12 months.

I have recently invested in another fund which is in US medium and small company loans and yields 14%, with the added risk/reward of the US dollar.

Neither is for widows and orphans, but I am happy with the diversificaion and performance of both.

You pays your money and makes your choice!!

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