Can You Afford To Wait For Better Times?

Published in Investing on 11 May 2012

What are you waiting for -- better times ahead?

If you told someone you were staying out of the market until the eurozone crisis and Greek situation became a little clearer, they would think you wise to wait. But the late Ben Graham wouldn't.

In the man's own words: "…the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favourable business conditions."

The potential for Greece to exit the eurozone along with other market worries may have given us another opportunity to take the flipside of the great investor's advice. Or, as his star pupil Warren Buffett famously put it: "…be greedy only when others are fearful."

Incidentally, there is a really excellent debate going on regarding the Greek situation on the Fool's discussion boards.

Not many people would describe the current macroeconomic backdrop as "favourable". But the FTSE 100 is reflecting this. At the time of writing, it's at 5,517, hovering around its lowest point this year. In fact, it's lost 8% in the last two months. That's quite some drop.

If you're sitting outside the market waiting for things to unravel, and maybe get worse yet, then I think you should think again. Because if the market does fall a lot yet, there will be good reasons to be fearful, so maybe you'll be waiting again?

Falling prices = good news

So to reverse Ben Graham's advice, it's a good time to purchase high-quality securities during these times of unfavourable business conditions. But which ones?

Personally, I've been buying BP (LSE: BP) shares at their now lows. I think BP looks a good buy due to its combination of an unfeasibly low P/E, excellent yield and strong balance sheet. The shares are currently 412p.

Meanwhile, my Foolish colleague David O'Hara flagged up five outstanding FTSE 100 shares just last week.

And I've found myself kind of hoping for further falls in RSA Insurance (LSE: RSA) currently 104p, and Aviva (LSE: AV) now 301.5p. I speculated last week whether RSA's better than 9% yield can be maintained. I think it probably can. Meanwhile, Stephen Bland thinks Aviva still cuts it as a value share.

The important thing to remember when investing for the long term and for future income is that falling share prices are good news, not bad. But of course, to take advantage of such falls, it's essential to have kept at least some of your powder dry or to introduce fresh cash -- as well as to have the fortitude to hit the buy button when everyone is fearful.

But if you're always waiting for better market conditions and signals that the market has turned, the blue-chip bargains will have gone.

Investing is by no means easy in today's uncertain economy. That's why we've published "Top Sectors Of 2012" -- our guide to three favourable industries. This free report will be dispatched immediately to your inbox.

Further investment opportunities:

> David owns shares in BP, RSA Insurance and Aviva.

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Comments

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forrado 11 May 2012 , 1:27pm

"…be greedy only when others are fearful."

Markets are no where near fearful enough yet - worried yes but not fearful

"At the time of writing, it's at 5,517, hovering around its lowest point this year. In fact, it's lost 8% in the last two months. That's quite some drop."

My backside is that quite some drop. The 900 points drop in the space of a couple of months starting 22 July last year - now that was quite some drop

geddinquick 11 May 2012 , 2:34pm

No - it is quite some drop in a short space of time. No-one is saying it ranks as one of THE biggest drops though. But it is significant.

LastChip 11 May 2012 , 3:57pm

Can you afford to wait? Absolutely.

Greece is not the issue, it's the total collapse of Europe and the markets with it. That'll be the time to buy.

Printing money has only delayed the inevitable. For how long? I've no idea.

Patience is one of the harder traits in investing to master.

goodlifer 11 May 2012 , 4:10pm

"But it is significant.".

One of my favourite words - can't be refuted, can mean just about anything.
Or nothing.

God's gift to experts of all denominations.

geddinquick 11 May 2012 , 6:06pm

"One of my favourite words - can't be refuted, can mean just about anything. Or nothing."

The article says 8%; that's a specific figure.

goodlifer 11 May 2012 , 10:59pm

geddinquick

"The article says 8%; that's a specific figure."
Great - I've no quarrel with that.

goodlifer 11 May 2012 , 11:22pm

"It's essential to have kept at least some of your powder dry."

I can't feeling this is strictly for mugs - I like to be pretty well fully invested.
I don't like my money to be hanging about and eroded by the moth and rust of inflation when it could be earning me juicy dividends.

Not many people - least of all me - actually know what the market's going to do.

If it goes down, I'm happy to get my dividends reinvest them at bargain-basement prices.

If it goes up, I'd be kicking myself for missing a buying opportunity.

If I'm fully invested, and some wonderful snip comes up, I can always sell something.
I may not like doing this, but, if it's not worth it, perhaps that snip wasn't so wonderful after all.

ANuvver 12 May 2012 , 8:40pm

I keep some of my dry powder in corporate bonds - in fact at the moment, as we head for what could be a "summer of discontent", it's my largest single exposure. Reasonable moth and rustproofing there.

cbpower 13 May 2012 , 8:22am

Patience is a virtue; I can’t see anything in the near future that indicates we are entering a long term bull market. The European issue is not sorted and the developed world has a lot of debt to sort out which will put a break on world growth. As we see in Europe people don’t vote for austerity so the political future is uncertain. I expect several more large corrections in the market and would not be surprised to see the FTSE down at 4500 again. I will trickle money into the market but capital preservation is my goal. I am a long term investor whether the money goes in this year or next will not make much difference. My money on deposit may be losing purchasing power but better that than an actual loss in the market.

cbpower 13 May 2012 , 8:30am

I should have mentioned I am waiting for worse times ahead, who was it that said buy was when there is blood in the streets (even if it's your own). People are not fearful yet.

goodlifer 13 May 2012 , 1:50pm

cbpower
"I am a long term investor whether the money goes in this year or next will not make much difference."

Zattafact?

goodlifer 13 May 2012 , 1:50pm
Jono136 13 May 2012 , 3:18pm

- and the word is "infeasible"

goodlifer 13 May 2012 , 7:05pm

Hi ANuvver
"I keep some of my dry powder in corporate bonds."

Interesting suggestion.
What do they yield?
Do they attract tax?
How quickly can you cash them?
Any penalty for doing so?

ANuvver 13 May 2012 , 11:11pm

eg SLXX - liquid, boring, flat yield 5.4%, YTM of 4.4%.
Distribution (quarterly) counts as income, yes. ETF, so no stamp.

Hannibalis would probably be horrified, but it does me as an easy short-term cash equivalent.

goodlifer 14 May 2012 , 8:30pm

Thanks, ANuvver

A bit Greekish to me, but doesn't look as if it keeps up with inflation.

masudbutt 18 May 2012 , 12:19am

I moved lots in global equity income funds & corporate bond, including EM bonds, from equity funds, in the last 3 years as I am retired now.This give income which I reinvest. I have deversefied,
Equity funds which are Hold for long term, not worried about the markets and miss upside which nobody can time.

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