Hunting The 100-Year Share

Published in Investing on 4 May 2012

A wisely chosen share delivers long-term wealth -- for generations.

As the annual Sunday Times Rich List regularly reminds us, a good number of Britain's wealthiest families are the custodians of a shareholding passed from generation to generation.

Consider the Warburton family, for instance, who own Bolton-based bread manufacturers Warburtons, valued by the Sunday Times at £500 million. Or the Bamford family, owners of £3.1 billion excavator manufacturer JCB. Or the Clark family, owners of -- you guessed it -- shoe manufacturer and retailer Clark's.

Nor does a family have to own the whole business. Consider the Sainsbury family, whose 9% stake in eponymous supermarket giant Sainsbury (LSE: SBRY) is worth £520 million. Or the Cayzer family, with a 33% stake in investment trust Caledonia Investments (LSE: CLDN), worth £487 million.

Wealth transfer

In each case, the logic is simple. Build a stake in a solid and sustainable business, look after it and pass it on to the next generation -- while enjoying a decent stream of dividends in the process.

While there are obvious questions of inheritance tax to consider, there's nothing to stop any of us building up a stake in a decent business, and passing that shareholding on.

And note, here, that I'm talking 'business' -- and not businesses. Pass on a portfolio, and there will inevitably be trading decisions to be made, as and when companies are acquired or merge. Trading decisions that your heirs might get wrong.

Instead, I'm talking about companies with the muscle and clout to be the one that is doing the acquiring, or instigating the merger. Prosperous survivors, in short, that can grow and throw off dividends over the long term.

Growing longevity

And be under no illusion: we are talking about the long term, here. The very long term.

As I've written several times before, longevity is increasing sharply. A growing number of people will live to see a hundred, for instance. And even for those that don't, current estimates of mortality see many of us reaching our late eighties and early nineties.

So, at the very least, it seems reasonable to assume that a share chosen for its inter-generational sturdiness needs to have decent prospects of prospering solidly for a hundred years.

Track record

Madness, you might think. How can any business survive and prosper for that length of time -- especially in today's turbulent world, with its fast-changing technologies?

For which I have a ready answer: many already have survived and prospered for that long already, in an era that has seen two world wars, the aeroplane, the motor car, men on the moon and the development of the computer.

The Sainsbury family stake, for instance, is in a business dating back to 1869. The Warburton family is the fifth generation of the family to own to own the business, which dates from 1876. The Cayzer family's stake in Caledonia Investments dates back to C. W. Cayzer & Company, established in 1877. And so on.

Long-term winners

So which of today's businesses look set to stand the test of time? One obvious avenue to consider is Britain's rich seam of investment trusts.

Several are themselves well over a hundred years old: Alliance Trust (LSE: ATST) and Foreign & Colonial Investment Trust (LSE: FRCL), for instance, date back to 1888 and 1868 respectively. Monks (LSE: MNKS) dates back to 1929. Scottish Mortgage (LSE: SMT) has been riding out uncertain economic conditions since 1909.

And what about businesses well placed to benefit from big geo-political trends?

Emerging markets, for instance. Here, I'd consider another investment trust, Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust (LSE: TEMIT). Another pick is Unilever (LSE: ULVR), which has a clutch of durable brands, and is growing far faster overseas than it is back at home. The two businesses that became Unilever in 1930 date back to 1872 and 1885 respectively, and look set to continue in business for another hundred years.

Defence is another strong bet. BAE Systems (LSE: BA), for instance, can trace its history back to 1560 when the Royal Powder Factory was established at Waltham Abbey in Essex. Rolls-Royce (LSE: RR), too, is another strong contender.

Healthcare is worth a look as well. Here, GlaxoSmithKline (LSE: GSK) is well worth considering: the business that became Allen & Hanburys dates from 1715; Beechams dates from 1842, and Glaxo itself dates from 1906. The odds of the business seeing another hundred years? Pretty good, I'd say.

But my number one choice? A bank. For whatever else happens in the world of technology and healthcare, I reckon we'll always need money and financial services. And in my book, HSBC (LSE: HSBA), which has done the business since 1865, looks set to do it for a hundred more.

Comments? That's what the box below is for.

Searching for dependable FTSE dividend shares? This free Motley Fool report -- "8 Shares Held By Britain's Super Investor" -- reveals the major companies favoured by high-yield legend Neil Woodford.

Further investment opportunities:

> Malcolm owns shares in Scottish Mortgage, BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce and GlaxoSmithKline. He does not hold shares in any other company mentioned.

Share & subscribe

Comments

The opinions expressed here are those of the individual writers and are not representative of The Motley Fool. If you spot any comments that are unsuitable hit the flag to alert our moderators.

Luniversal 04 May 2012 , 4:55pm

As it happens, I have just written an analysis of Scottish Mortgage taking off from today's finals:

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.aspx?mid=12547515

It's instructive that so many investment trusts endure longer than most of the companies they buy and sell. Five of the ten biggest ITs were founded before George V ascended the throne.

harryhoudini 05 May 2012 , 8:57pm

Hi there,

I have to say that this is a rather rose-tinted picture of various investments:

Rolls-Royce went bust in 1971 and spent a more than a decade in state ownership!

Investment Trusts: your sample suffers from survivorship bias- have you researched the other investment trusts that were around in 1868 or 1888 or 1909 or 1929? I don't have the resources to do that but I bet there were more than a dozen others around at those dates.

Family companies: some survive some dont- it was only a few years ago that Sainsbury nearly lost its independence. Cadbury is no more. Clarks were in a near in fatal miss and survived only through traumatic restructuring about a decade ago. I am impressed that Warburton's are in the 5th generation but this is surely a very rare exception.

As you might have guessed I do not agree that you can lock up your assets in one investment and assume it will last forever or even a hundred years. Decisions will have to be made to change your portfolio. Some decisions will be better than others.

regards and good luck

harryhoudini

amsterdamgroove 05 May 2012 , 10:56pm

Luniversal, thanks for sharing the most comprehensive piece of research on SMT that I've come across so far.

sopavest 06 May 2012 , 3:14pm

Interesting article, Malcolm. One further alternative that will never go bust is a FTSE 100 tracker that could be switched from accumulator to income units as and when required by future generations and could easily be transferred between providers.

Seriously, though, this article is a good reminder that the very wealthiest in our society usually achieve that position by inheriting a large slice of 'ownership' - in ownership lies true wealth, hence the appeal of living mortgage free.

Regards,

Roland

LittleDaveSab 08 May 2012 , 6:16pm

When I read articles like this I cannot help wondering how many people in the Uk can survive on their own means without actually NEEDING to work (and I am ignoring those on benefits here).

LooseCannon101 18 Aug 2012 , 1:25pm

I have 90% of my savings in Foreign and Colonial Investment Trust which I bought for it's longevity, diversity of assets, low management fees and generally good but unspectacular performance.

I bought with the intention of holding the shares for 30+ years, with dividends re-invested if possible.

I believe too many investors try to make a quick buck, pound, yen or euro and should think long and hard about buying any asset. The only people who make a killing are usually the middle men (and women) who work in the City and on Wall Street who prey on the retail investor's greed and fear.

Join the conversation

Please take note - some tags have changed.

Line breaks are converted automatically.

You may use the following tags in your post: [b]bolded text[/b], [i]italicised text[/i]. All other tags will be removed from your post.

If you want to add a link, please ensure you type it as http://www.fool.co.uk as opposed to www.fool.co.uk.

Hello stranger

To add your own comment, please login.

Not yet registered? Register now.