Understand Yourself Before You Invest

Published in Investing on 16 February 2012

Invest within your means, otherwise it will cost you.

If someone advises you concerning your financial affairs and they may profit through fees and/or commissions as a result, they should first interview you as this enables them to tailor their advice to take account of your personal circumstances.

However, the person who has the best knowledge of your circumstances is yourself. Not some stranger or even your best friend. You. Take advantage of it.

A quick checklist

Here are a few questions that newcomers to the world of investment should be asking themselves:

1) Am I prepared to put my money at risk? If not, look at things like gilts, deposit accounts, index-linked gilts and National Savings. Realistically, the stock market is off-limits for you because share prices can, and often do, fall as well as rise.

2) If I'm prepared to take a risk then what level of risk is acceptable? On the scale of increasing risk, you start with deposit accounts and government index-linked bonds, moving up through fixed-interest bonds, property, stock market funds and individual shares. At the top of the risk tree are high-risk punts like that Patagonian Llama farm for which your accountant swears that you'll get income tax relief..!

3) How much money should I keep aside in my 'rainy day' fund to provide some protection against unforeseen events? Two months' worth of living expenses is a good start, if only because it stops you running out of money before the end of every month like so many people are prone to do.

4) Do I prefer income or capital growth? Or a bit of both? Maximising your income now will somewhat restrict your ability to grow your income in the future.

5) How would I really react if I lost money? Be very honest with yourself.

The last question tells prospective investors a lot about themselves. Millions of people have bought shares thinking that they'll be relaxed if their price falls by, say, 25%. Yet at the first sign of falling prices they panic, sell everything and retreat to their building society account vowing never to return. They didn't understand themselves.

Don't lie to yourself

About two decades ago, I heard of a case where a couple had seen an advisor about investing a very large lump sum. When asked what they were looking for, they replied "the maximum possible income, what a stupid question to ask us" (their words).

On further questioning, it turned out that this wasn't what they wanted. They were looking for a high income but their main concern was that their capital was not put at risk.

I have no idea what happened to them, though I gather that, as a parting shot, they said to the advisor that they were going to go with someone else who had already offered them 12% a year guaranteed risk-free.

Since 12% was much more than the risk-free rate at the time, as paid by short-dated British government gilts, they were not going to be getting a risk-free investment unless they were buying an annuity, which would mean giving up some or all of their capital.

Maybe they were not as risk-averse as they claimed to be, though it was quite likely that they didn't realise what they were getting into. Either way, they didn't understand themselves and I suspect that it may have cost them.

Know your circle of competence

After a while most investors discover that they are good at some things, perhaps those fields that are related to their work, while there are others that they're quite poor at.

When it comes to the stock market, I've got a good track record when it comes to small oil companies, alcohol, publishers, consumer goods and international investment, while there are a few sectors which I generally avoid nowadays having learned the hard way!

By sticking to what Warren Buffett calls your "circle of competence", you focus your attention upon what works for you. Over time, as you improve your knowledge of investment matters, your circle of competence will grow to encompass other sectors of the stock market as well as other types of investment.

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More from Tony Luckett:

> Tony has never bought shares in a Patagonian Llama farm, though he has owned shares in a couple of companies that make a bankrupt Patagonian Llama farm seem like a great investment!

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Comments

The opinions expressed here are those of the individual writers and are not representative of The Motley Fool. If you spot any comments that are unsuitable hit the flag to alert our moderators.

ram59 17 Feb 2012 , 9:03am

Tony greed is such a deceptive mistress.

twazzercheese 17 Feb 2012 , 2:03pm

You mentioned publishers in your 'circle of competence'. A difficult place to invest right now. I've been following Future Publishing for a decade: £10 to 10p, with huge swings and fluctuations that seem completely unexplained. It's hard to make money in publishing that's for sure, whether you're in the business or simply invested in it.

TonyTwoTimes 17 Feb 2012 , 2:56pm

Hi twazzercheese,

In my case, with publishers (and media) being in my circle of competence it has meant that I largely avoid the sector because of its problems.

My one big success in a publishing investment was shares in the comic book company Marvel Entertainment.

Cheers,

TonyL

snoekie 17 Feb 2012 , 4:21pm

ram59, greed is good, per Graham, when the market is low.

The trick is knowing when the market is at a low, and never being too greedy, looking for total bottom.

As my broker puts it, if you miss one opportunity, another will present itself, after all cash is king.

Old adage, patience is a virtue........, never mind about never washing her face, because if you buy the right stock, it will wash its face

sippquixote 18 Feb 2012 , 12:34am

Patience is a virtue.

Yes, my gold holdings have increased approx 20% a year over the last three years.

Many advisors have promised more, but I'm an old plodder who just prefers to stick at 20% per year(Oh, and also a safety net just in case any of our talented politicians do something stupid)

goodlifer 18 Feb 2012 , 5:05pm

There some bits of conventional wisdom I find difficult to swallow

First, the notion that deposit accounts, index-linked gilts and National Savings aren't pretty hopelessly risky.

What's a fair return for your investment?
I reckon a minimum of about 4-5% after tax and inflation - get less and you'd be better off spending it.

So with inflation at it is today you need 4-5% in an ISA just to tread water, quite a bit more to generate a bit of real income after tax.
Looks to me like Risk without Reward.

Second, it seems to me that because any individual share is risky people jump to the erroneous conclusion that any portfolio must be risky too.

Yet apart perhaps from property, a good steady job or running a successful business, I can't seem to think of anything safer than a sensibly diversified portfolio of shares in reasonably decent companies?
Can you?

Obviously the paper value of any portfolio tends to go up and down with the mood of the heartless witless market'
But does that matter?
Only if you want to get out.
And why would you want to get out?

goodlifer 18 Feb 2012 , 5:09pm

"Maximising your income now will somewhat restrict your ability to grow your income in the future."

Why?

TonyTwoTimes 19 Feb 2012 , 8:18am

Hi goodlifer,

Maximising current income means that less money is available to reinvest.

So a company that pays out all of its profits as dividends doesn't have anything to reinvest in growing the business.

Thus its ability to expand is limited (it has to resort to borrowing). So it can't easily expand and when its profits are reduced over time, as capitalism invariably does through competition unless you've got strong brands and/or some other competitive advantage, it will not be able to maintain its dividend.

Cheers,

TonyL

goodlifer 19 Feb 2012 , 7:41pm

Hi TonyL,
Many thanks for your reply.

For good or ill I'm inclined to think things may not be quite so straightforwardly simple as you seem to suggest.

First, by "maximising income" I don't mean looking for shares with the biggest possible yield, just shares in decent companies with the biggest sensible yield possible.
Nobody in hi right mind - not even me! - wants to buy into a company that regularly pays out all its profits as dividends.

Obviously you need to weigh the advantages of a high yield now against the chance of an even higher one in the future.

A high yield now means cash in your pocket to reinvest, so that you can sit back and meditate on mathematical, magical beauty of 'e' and of compounding.

A prospective higher yield may materialise or it may not; there's always the chance the bosses may trouser the profits themselves, or spend it all on some crazy lawsuit or acquisition.
Bird in hand, or two in bush?
No idiot-proof right answer,

Second, you don't necessarily need growth to maintain your dividend, as you yourself seem to admit.

And what about price, the other factor in the yield equation?
When Mr Market's in one of his moods even a stodgy "defensive"stock can beecome incredibly cheap, which means it'll generate a nice high yield.
I think this comes about because the majority of investors are mainly interested in capital growth; consequently the market tends to focus on growth, causing high yielding stocks, with little or no growth prospects to be sometimes seriously undervalued.

That's how I seem to see it at present anyway - if I've got it all wrong please straighten me out.

Many thanks again.

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