Can you guess who it is?
At last, it seems that world stock markets are on the front foot again, supported by some positive economic numbers. But this nascent economic recovery seems nothing if not fragile. And who is the one person that this fragile world recovery depends on?
No, it's not Ben Bernanke, or Hu Jintao, or even Mario Draghi.
In my view, it is the consumer.
I will survive
In Britain, consumer spending plays a key role -- making up two thirds of the economy -- and, at the moment, the consumer seems to have gone missing.
We have written many times at the Fool of the demise of the high street. Companies like HMV (LSE: HMV) and GAME (LSE: GMG) seem to have been on the verge of going under for months, but have somehow survived.
Budget retailer Peacocks has gone into administration, and a range of other businesses have been suffering badly, notably Mothercare (LSE: MTC), Halfords (LSE: HFD) and Home Retail Group (LSE: HOME). Even the supermarkets have not been immune to the malaise.
With wages being squeezed, high inflation and rising unemployment, the consumer has been watching those pennies, trading down and spending less.
But if it's bad in Britain, just look at what's happening on mainland Europe. Spending cuts, rocketing unemployment and higher taxes are pushing Europe's consumers into a depression. The effect for Europe's retailers is likely to be devastating.
Hey, big spender
On the other side of the world, consumers are becoming increasingly important in emerging markets like China. Up to now, low-cost exports have driven the China boom but, as the renminbi appreciates and Chinese wages rocket, the hope is that a growing Chinese middle class will drive a consumption boom.
These Chinese consumers are turning into the mirror image of their Western counterparts. European consumers have a history of spending as much as they earn and saving little, but are now becoming more cautious and saving more.
In contrast, Chinese consumers have traditionally saved much of their earnings and spent little. But now, they are beginning to spend.
The effect has started with the wealthiest Chinese. The World Luxury Association has predicted that China is likely to replace Japan as the world's largest luxury market this year, as stores selling luxury goods spread from Shanghai and Beijing across mainland China. McKinsey has predicted that China will make up 20% of worldwide luxury sales by 2015.
The cult of consumerism
In 2011, 1.1 million Chinese tourists visited the US -- and that is predicted to rise to two million by 2015. Chinese and Brazilian tourists have already become the biggest spenders. China's wealthy are spending at a prodigious rate. And it looks like the cult of consumerism is filtering down to the emerging middle class.
However, the numbers tell us consumption as a proportion of GDP is still only half the level of the developed world, so there is plenty of room for growth. According to Goldman Sachs, China will eventually catch up... but this change will not take place overnight.
Instead, as China invests in healthcare and education provision and works to improve retirement benefits, the Chinese will gradually save less, and will be more willing to spend freely.
A new engine for global growth
In the developed world, the slow and painful task of deleveraging has a long way to go. As this takes place, consumers have gone into their shells. To get a recovery in the West going, we need the consumer to be less fearful of job losses and erosion of income, and more optimistic.
But, increasingly, we are looking to emerging markets. Once the hundreds of millions of China's middle class really do get spending, it will not only drive the next stage of China's boom -- it could be the engine for global economic recovery.
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