Mega-Profits From Mega-Trends

Published in Investing on 6 February 2012

Opportunity abounds for those willing to take risks.

For some investors, a modest return isn't enough. Digging up nicely valued stocks that offer solid income stream and steady capital growth doesn't quite get their investment juices flowing. They want more.

Sticking their money into a UK tracker doesn't quite do it for them, either. Nor do specialist sectors such as, say, Japanese smaller companies or European commercial property.

They prefer to think mega. And I mean mega on a global scale. They want mega-profits and, to get them, they're going to chase mega-trends.

The mega the better

If you're tempted by global mega-trends, there are plenty to choose from. Most are springing from emerging markets. Many are a spin-off from the BRICs, a mega-trend if ever I've seen one.

These mega-trends include the emerging middle class, who now have more disposable income to spend on food and agriculture, as emerging consumers mimic Westerners by demanding more meat, dairy and processed food.

Growing financial services penetration is another mega-biggie, as newly wealthy populations set up bank accounts for the first time, and request other financial products such as mortgages, investments and insurance.

Infrastructure is another big one, as developing countries plough money into roads, railways, pipelines and electricity grids. And so is urbanisation, as they swap living off the land for living in the city.

Another global trend, demographics, affects both West and East, as ageing populations swallow more pharmaceuticals and require more medical treatment.

Think global. Invest, well, global. But is this wise?

Big is beautiful

You can see why investors might like to think big. Or rather, mega. Sweeping global change is exciting. It is making history, as we witness an historic shift in power from West to East.

Chasing mega-trends is investing on a grand scale, which makes it naturally more thrilling than this boring blue chip, or five shares that won't let you down.

That is its charm, and also its danger.

By investing in a mega-trend, you are putting all your faith in a single story. And that story is primarily the rise of emerging markets. If the China bears are wrong, you should make your mega-profits.

But if the China bears are right, you could be in for a mega-flop.

Old Europe, brave new world

We could be in for some short-term emerging market volatility, but in the longer run, this is truly is a mega-story. So how do you squeeze it into your portfolio?

There are plenty of UK-listed stocks to choose from. Pharmaceutical companies such as AstraZeneca (LSE: AZN) and GlaxoSmithKline (LSE: GSK) are a good way of investing in ageing global populations. So are hip and knee replacement specialists Smith & Nephew (LSE: SN). My parents already have two plastic hips and one plastic knee between them, and I hold Smith & Nephew.

If you want to be more specific, you might be tempted by Hutchison China MediTech (LSE: HCM), a UK-listed healthcare group mostly based in China.

I've been tracking that little gem for a couple of years, and was tempted to invest in January when it was trading at 263p. Sadly, I didn't. It's now trading at 438p. As I said, mega.

My friend STAN

If you prefer to put your faith in the emerging market consumer, you're spoilt for choice. Western mega-biggies such as Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL.US), Reckitt Benckiser (LSE: RB), Diageo (LSE: DGE), Tesco (LSE: TSCO) and Unilever (LSE: ULVR) should all expand nicely into emerging markets. Apparently, one billion people now use Unilever's household products.

If you're after infrastructure, you could invest in a specialist fund, such as First State Global Listed Infrastructure, or a mining company such as BHP Billiton (LSE: BLT) or Rio Tinto (LSE: RIO). Miners are looking cheap right now, and you might be tempted by BlackRock World Mining, now trading at a 12% discount after a difficult year for the sector.

Arguably, Vodafone (LSE: VOD) is also a UK-listed global infrastructure play.

You may distrust most UK and European banks but HSBC (LSE: HSBA) and Standard Chartered (LSE: STAN) have a strong presence in Asia, and could benefit as the emerging middle class save and invest their surplus income.

Alternatively, you could buy directly into emerging markets.

Sweat the small stuff, too

Everybody needs a few mega-moments in their life. Just don't get carried away. There is still space in your portfolio for obscure yet pleasantly profitable small UK companies. Or solid shares that won't let you down. Or that boring blue chip.

Mega-dull also has its merits.

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More from Harvey Jones:

> Harvey Jones owns shares in BHP Billiton, Diageo, Glaxo, Smith & Nephew, Tesco and Vodafone The Motley Fool owns shares of Tesco, Reckitt Benckiser, Unilever, BHP Billiton, AstraZeneca, Smith & Nephew and GlaxoSmithKline.

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Comments

The opinions expressed here are those of the individual writers and are not representative of The Motley Fool. If you spot any comments that are unsuitable hit the flag to alert our moderators.

alarmbells 07 Feb 2012 , 9:31am

There are plenty of UK-listed stocks to choose from. Pharmaceutical companies such as AstraZeneca (LSE: AZN) and GlaxoSmithKline (LSE: GSK) are a good way of investing in ageing global populations

Not so sure. They're a good way of gaining exposure to drugs but just how much of their (not very convincing) pipelines are focused on age? In fact I recall reading the other day one of these fellows having a distinct lack of success with its dementia offerings. I would be more tempted by bio tech ITs.

The thoughts in the "My Friend Stab" paras correspond much more with my views on where to stash the cash.

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