Davos Grapples With The European Question

Published in Investing on 27 January 2012

There really was only one topic on world leaders' lips this year.

A year ago at Davos, leading businessmen and politicians struck a rather positive note. The world seemed to be recovering pretty well from the credit crunch, stock markets were doing well and the main talk was of the rise of emerging market economies.

In 2012, it is Davos week again. But this year, the picture couldn't be more different. The developed world is mired in debt, with slow growth and high unemployment. There has been revolution in the Arab world, riots in Britain and the Occupy protestors are saying that capitalism is in crisis.

But there really was only one major topic on the lips of the world's leaders: Europe.

More of the same from Merkel

It was appropriate, then, that Angela Merkel opened the World Economic Forum. But anyone hoping for more concessions from the German chancellor would be sorely disappointed.

We need to build European solidarity through closer integration, she said, rather than just rely on Germany as Europe's cash machine.

She questioned the credibility of demands to double or triple the eurozone rescue funds, saying: "If Germany promises something that cannot be delivered if the markets attack it hard, then Europe would be left with a wide-open flank."

It was more of the same from Merkel, and she was roundly criticised by financier-turned-economics guru George Soros, who said: "The austerity that Germany wants to impose will push Europe into a deflationary spiral." He felt that this imposition of an unsustainable target would not pull countries together but, instead, push them apart.

Cameron weighs in

Then David Cameron gave his view of the eurozone crisis. And it was pretty much a stinging rebuke to Europe's leaders. He urged them to follow Britain's "bold and decisive action" in dealing with its crisis, warning that the continent faced a "perilous moment".

He said that three things needed to be done urgently: the Greek situation had to be resolved, the banks recapitalised and an agreement reached on a new bailout fund.

Cameron criticised Europe's lack of competitiveness, its mountain of debt and its high levels of youth unemployment. Europe's leaders were too timid; boldness was required.

He laid into European bureaucracy. And, as for the financial transactions tax, he said: "Even to be considering this at a time when we are struggling to get our economies growing is quite simply madness."

Following Cameron's speech, there was talk of Europe preparing a milder alternative to the financial transactions tax -- something akin to the stamp duty we already pay in the UK.

Cameron was one of several world leaders who lambasted the eurozone and, in particular, Germany. The message was clear: as well as austerity, jobs and growth also have to be part of the package. Issues like youth unemployment really have to be tackled.

In the words of the Danish prime minister Helle Thorning Schmidt: "Everyone must be part of austerity. People are prepared to make sacrifices but they will not be sacrificed. We must not sacrifice parts of society." She continued:"We have heard about (banks) being too big to fail, but now we risk hearing about (people) being too small to matter."

But there was optimism, too

But it wasn't all doom and gloom. Bob Diamond, chief executive of Barclays, felt that things were starting to improve: "We are seeing a big change driven by somewhat more confidence in the US economy and, most importantly, that Europe is on the right path. There is a bit more confidence in the market today."

Vikram Pandit of Citigroup echoed this: "Sentiment is a lot better than it was a few weeks back and that's because of the very strong actions taken by the ECB. A lot of the actions that are happening are moving in the right direction of a stronger euro and eurozone."

And there was an example of a country that had gone through the rigours of austerity and survived. By cutting public sector jobs and pay, and increasing the state pension age, Ireland has finally achieved a budget surplus. So, yes, it really can be done.

Ireland's prime minister Enda Kelly said the medicine had not been pleasant but determined countries could see a result very quickly.

In summary, Davos hasn't particularly given us earth-shattering new insights or initiatives. But it has set things in perspective, it has highlighted the challenges ahead and it has given us a little bit of that precious commodity called 'hope'.

> Here's your free Essential Investor Kit. Over the next few weeks, you'll get share ideas, a sector report and much, much more. Don't miss out!

More from Prabhat Sakya:

Share & subscribe

Comments

The opinions expressed here are those of the individual writers and are not representative of The Motley Fool. If you spot any comments that are unsuitable hit the flag to alert our moderators.

theRealGrinch 27 Jan 2012 , 3:09pm

a big fat nuke dropping on davos would do the world a favour. no one likes self important idiots.

sippquixote 27 Jan 2012 , 9:02pm

[Cameron] laid into European bureaucracy..........................

In 1970 Britain had eight million workers in manufacturing, and three million civil servants.
In 2010, at the end of the Blair/Brown regime, Britain had three million workers in manufacturing and eight million civil servants(includes local government).

I think that Cameron needs to sort out his own country before attacking others.

Less oily PR and more action is what our nation needs.

RobinnBanks 30 Jan 2012 , 5:02pm

"If Germany promises something that cannot be delivered if the markets attack it hard, then Europe would be left with a wide-open flank."'
Deja Vu, 1939? This time, the 'piece of paper' is only Euro debt, so far!

Join the conversation

Please take note - some tags have changed.

Line breaks are converted automatically.

You may use the following tags in your post: [b]bolded text[/b], [i]italicised text[/i]. All other tags will be removed from your post.

If you want to add a link, please ensure you type it as http://www.fool.co.uk as opposed to www.fool.co.uk.

Hello stranger

To add your own comment, please login.

Not yet registered? Register now.