Buffett Buys More Tesco!

Published in Investing on 19 January 2012

Buy when the price falls, says the sage. And he did.

The debate about Tesco (LSE: TSCO) has been raging here at TMF after the UK's biggest supermarket issued its first profit warning in more than 20 years of trading, leading to 20% being lopped off the price of what is widely considered one of the best defensive shares on the market.

And though many still think Tesco is the bee's knees, my Foolish colleague Prabhat Sakya took a critical look at the other side of the coin this week. Even if you're still bullish, it's vital to examine the downside of any potential investment, and the debate that ensued was rather lively.

Now, perhaps Tesco's most famous investor has once more stepped into the fray. Having held Tesco shares since at least 2007, Warren Buffett bought another chunk last September at around the 370p mark, taking his stake in the company to 3.6%. As recently as November, he was quoted as saying "If the price came down some on Tesco, I'd buy some more of that."

And when it fell last week, that's exactly what he did. Though the news has only come to light, Mr Buffett's investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway, invested heavily on the day of the profit warning, and again a day later, on January 13. That takes Berkshire Hathaway's total stake to 5.1%, and is a pretty good example of putting your money where your mouth is.

Vote of confidence

Tesco's new chief executive Philip Clarke came under pressure when the warning took the market by surprise, after predicting no profit growth next year as the company plans to plough some £400 million back into its UK stores to reinvigorate its fight for market share.

But this latest move by Warren Buffett, who takes a much longer view of things than the average stock market pundit, will come as a welcome bit of support for him.

And it hasn't done the share price any harm either, as it perked up around 4p on the news. Admittedly, it's only a small jump, but it's a welcome respite from the doom and gloom that has been pushing the price down all week.

What side of the Tesco divide are you one? Are you a pumper or a dumper? Do share your thoughts, below.

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Comments

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Mark878 19 Jan 2012 , 4:21pm

I wonder why Buffet didn't diversify and buy shares on Sainsbury's or another supermarket instead of topping up in Tesco. Sentiment has affected both shares and I would have thought spreading the risk would be sensible.

Monkeynugget 19 Jan 2012 , 4:25pm

Because Tesco is more diversified than any other supermarkets making it less risky. Anyone who read the xmas statement will see why Tesco is a good bet as although they had a less than stellar performance in the UK they still globally grew.



jackdaww 19 Jan 2012 , 4:29pm

mark878

buffet doesnt diversify - he focuses on his best pick - his measuring stick - if the others arent as good he doesnt buy them..

ive topped up some more today

InvestElf 19 Jan 2012 , 5:00pm

Buffett buys growth at value prices and he needs a big vehicle to do that given the size of his investments - hence TSCO and not smaller MRW, for example.

He bought the glitch, and as Alan points out, he told us that he would beforehand.


vinchainsaw 19 Jan 2012 , 5:53pm

I think he's very right and I bought a bit today myself with the odds that were lying aorund in my ISA account.

Pretty happy with myself, have wanted to own some tsco for ages but have difficulty buying a double-digit multiple.
Eventually the opportunity presented itself.

TFG2112 19 Jan 2012 , 8:16pm

The only big mistake they have made is that they werent handing out money off coupons or double points over Christmas like the competition. They need to tidy up some stores and get the basic back on track but its not major surgery.

goodlifer 19 Jan 2012 , 10:31pm

"Warren Buffett... takes a much longer view of things than the average stock market pundit."

Could that be one of the reasons why he often seems to do rather better than the average stock market pundit?

WillXster 20 Jan 2012 , 12:00am

I topped up on the day of that announcement too. Getting a great company for even cheaper suits me!

82mark 20 Jan 2012 , 7:32am

Tesco wss already on my watch list to top up. 20% off for short term marketing problems is a good deal in my book. I'm buying into the potential for them to role out their infrustructure and economies of scale in emerging markets. Their xmas advertising in the UK left much to be desired but that is much easier to fix than refrigerated transporetation networks in India for example. UK customer experience is a worry but they said they are making the right noises about addressing this.

Hannibalis 20 Jan 2012 , 8:23am

As an income investor I preferred Sainsbury's which yields a percentage point above Tesco.

http://www.the-diy-income-investor.com/2012/01/portfolio-buy-sainsbury-sbry.html

dhorsley 20 Jan 2012 , 9:11am

As an income investor i preffered Tesco (initially) as i like the non-UK diversification I get with Tesco. I may double up with a second supermarket in the futute though.

scarlett0303 20 Jan 2012 , 9:31am

I'm with Buffett.

apprenticeDRL 20 Jan 2012 , 11:12am

Im with Vinchainsaw I had Tesco on my watch list for ages but couldnt justify buying with other better opportunities around.

Now bought in when the price fell and finally added them to my portfolio. I think this may turn out to be one of the buys of 2012 at the price.

Tri2000 20 Jan 2012 , 12:16pm

@TFG2112 The only big mistake they have made is that they werent handing out money off coupons or double points over Christmas like the competition
They certainly were, the trick is to make them think you shop elsewhere. Mrs T tends to smart-shop where the bargains are and we have no strong allegiance. By not shopping in Tesco at all in Oct/Nov we were treated to a whole load of money off vouchers (£4 off £40 and £5 off £50) in the post 3 weeks before Christmas. 10% off, thanks very much. That is the key strength of the Clubcard to Tesco, they know what and when you buy and tailor marketing specifically. They were the first supermarket to launch such a scheme and it is that sort of innovation that will see them right in the longer term.
PS Also topped up the portfolio this week.

SevenPillars 20 Jan 2012 , 1:20pm

From Buffett's point of view it is a no-brainer. I did hear one so called city analyst scoffing that it was probably to a degree Buffett averaging down, but like the city in general they have chosen to ignore the positives of Tesco (same with Sainsbury) because food retailers are not in vogue right now. To a degree riskier shares, banks, insurance, miners, smaller oil companies seem to be popular again at least for the moment at least.

The other thing to remember about Buffett is that he does deal in $billions and he can let time do its job because as he now owns over 5% of Tesco he will be getting a massive dividend payment year in, year out. He can afford to sit and forget. Smaller investors who bought higher than the current 329, even the long term buy and hold types, will probably feel the capital loss more even if it is only on paper. Playing with big money always makes a difference. Nevertheless, I believe Buffett is more right on Tesco than the market right now, on fundamentals and overseas growth it is cheap.

HighbrowNick 20 Jan 2012 , 2:45pm

I'm actually thinking of dumping my holding. Tesco were a great company, but not sure they still are, in spite of the comments above. I don't like profit warnings. Customer service seems poor, long queues etc.

Reluctant though I am to disagree with the great Mr Buffet.

cduance 20 Jan 2012 , 3:47pm

Tesco have just had a kick. When you are top of the market for so long you become complacent now they will mobilise and build in order to exceed expectations.

Its just no profit growth right, so they will still be making a profit after the expenses of reinvestment etc.

I cant remember what article I read or what the company was but it mentioned 10 years of flat growth because they were reinvesting all of the additional cash flow in order to grow when they stopped investing that money cash flow was significant and the price rose and the dividends were massive for those willing to wait and watch managements strategy come to fruition. Might have been a car company. Either way as long as you know what is happening to the capital just because it takes a hit for a year or two doesnt mean its not a good buy

nickbutcher 20 Jan 2012 , 3:51pm

I piled in on the day of the announcement too - hardly 1.5% of Tesco stock, but over 1% of my SIPP.
I also grabbed some Morrisons and Sainsburys too as they'd been dragged down in the panic.

dubre 20 Jan 2012 , 3:51pm

"past performance is no guarantee of future results".Where have I seen that before?Does it apply to Mr Buffet?I seem to remember that the great Brian Clough got Nottingham Forest relegated in his last season.

I was told,this morning,that our local Tescos leaves a lot to be desired.

thebacksaver 20 Jan 2012 , 4:00pm

After Prabhat's article earlier this week I entered into a discussion with GoldenSoldier who was saying Tesco was not performing as other sector companies were for their customers which was why their Christmas was not good and that he saw a bleak future (my words not his). I said I saw the 20% drop as an opportunity as I was sure did Warren Buffet who I forecast would buy more as has been confirmed.
I went in quite heavily on Friday the 13th at a whisker under 315 and had I bigger balls, I would have gone even heavier.
Now that Buffet has confirmed my thoughts, I have taken a few more, but have paid the price for my timidity.
By January 2017 I expect he price to be three figures starting with 4 and in the meantime will happily take the dividends.

salmo365 20 Jan 2012 , 4:05pm

I still think markets are a bit frothy at the minute so I'm holding off adding to my current stake.

I've a feeling we may see 300p with a bad bit of macro news.

leftandright 20 Jan 2012 , 4:20pm

Tesco may or not be a good investment but they are destroying the high street and I don't like them. Avoid.

thebemused1 20 Jan 2012 , 4:23pm

Great companies don't stop being great overnight, although a number of 'analysts' are now getting wise with hindsight and finding previous sell signals. If only we could all apply hindsight to our investments life would be so easy.

Like many others, I have had Tesco on my watch list waiting for an opportunity to buy, so I piled in when the shares dropped to 330 and took another chunk at 322. I am happy to sit on these forever (I'm thinking 20+ years) and just watch those beautiful dividends roll in every year. When the fickle footsie pendulum swings back - as it surely will - then there will be a bonus of capital growth to boot.

Investing doesn't get much more obvious than this!

Sleep tight.

alanhs 20 Jan 2012 , 4:38pm

I too grabbed some at 3.20 and then some more at 3.17 so am happy to see them going up - in the ISA I will get a good dividend tax free so it works for me - I have faith that they will pull back up in the next 1-3 years. Lets hope Lloyds Banking Group manages a recovery in the same time frame - got loads of them and sitting on a huge loss - c'est la vie. Happy buying.

FitLawton 20 Jan 2012 , 4:50pm

BK/A's buying of TSCO on the sell off cannot come as a surprise to anyone. It's classic Buffett, and shows the retail investor by way of a real life example not only how its done, but how simple the process is. 'Remarkably unremarkable' is how he has described his approach to investing.

Remember BK/A are diversified across the UK Supermarket sector via their holding in WMT which owns Asda, so it must be a sector he finds attractive long term.

I am sure TSCO will be back on track soon with or without CEO Philip Clarke. Regarding the importance of CEO's to the value of an investment Buffett also offers this insight:

"I try to buy stock in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will."

Evaluating some of the financials as to whether TSCO is a buy are outlined here: http://globaldividendgrowth.wordpress.com

crinnis 20 Jan 2012 , 5:05pm

why do I get the feeling that an awful lot of TMF opinions about Tesco's have changed suddenly!?

I run with a portfolio of about 50 shares. Tesco has consistently been in the bottom half and even with dividends reinvested they have been a very mediocre share - well into the bottom half of my portfolio performance

WB or his company may have a long term horizon and their analysis may well show Tesco being a dominant player in the world market by 2030. Who cares? Certainly not me - I'll be playing a harp by then!

Past performance is no guarantee of future performance - since I didn't sell my Tesco shares in time - thank goodness!

Crinnis

Xrat 20 Jan 2012 , 5:06pm

According to my analysis of my wife's shopping Tesco could improve rapidly by taking simple steps. 4 pints of milk have been 'reduced' to around £1.25 in Tesco, but my wife always stops of in Lidl where it is priced at £1. If she's stopping anyway she'll pick up a few other bits she knows are cheaper and Tesco loses again.
Come on Mr. Tesco, don't be beaten on the regular basics like bread and milk and watch the profits soar. By the way Sainsbury's bake a better loaf!
My only concern with buying more Tesco is the on line competition for electricals. I forsee a fall in sales as the credit crunch bites, and I would like to see Tesco appearing in the cheapest online prices occasionally when using search engines..., after all they could afford to take a loss leading hit for the free advertising.

HilaryHames 20 Jan 2012 , 5:43pm

I dont know exactly what difference it makes but according to Investors Chronicle Buffet did a particular kind of deal:
http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2012/01/16/comment/chronic-investor-blog/is-tesco-in-value-territory-yet-S1Yjlq2cSLq4AnqMtxLGWN/article.html

sparkyscientist 20 Jan 2012 , 6:03pm

not sure who this Buffett fellow is, but I bet he only bought into Tesco last week because he'd heard that I'd just done the same :)

DaveK1020 20 Jan 2012 , 6:07pm

Warren Buffet is a man to take notice of. When he buys he is buying with his own company's money and putting that money where his mouth is.
Personally, I ignore all the other so called experts who give advice but aren't actually investing themselves. That accounts for 99% of them. Let's face it, if they really were experts would they be writing articles for financial institutions? No, of course not, they would be sitting on their luxury yachts enjoying the fruits of their multi million pound portfolios. The fact that they aren't tells you that their own so called advice is not up to the mark.

pickepics 20 Jan 2012 , 6:33pm

Why on earth do MF pundits go on and on about Buffet's current investment practices? He and his not inconsiderable team have to be careful not to influence share prices against the longer term interests of BH, his investment vehicle. Most of us couldn't influence prices if we put every halfpenny we had into a share.

I am far more interested in how he got to the position of being able to invest billions. That has far more relevance to what I and my own can possibly hope to achieve. It is harder work but I believe quite sincerely that we'll benefit far more in the long run for it.

As I type, the Radio 4 news tells me that WB's increased stake has pushed the Tesco share price up. To those of you who do your own research and decided to buy of your own volition before you heard about Buffet's purchase, and to those who are not interested in buying Tesco so ignored the noise, well done. To the rest of you, how many times have you been told by MF not to follow the herd and not to buy and sell on the advice of pundits?

topstar74 20 Jan 2012 , 6:42pm

I am new to investing and I read the article and all its comments and am just digesting all the facts. Meanwhile could someome please tell me - This WB guy, who seems to be the God of investing and profitting from shares.......just out of curiosity, are there any instances where he has got it wrong spectacularly?

pickepics 20 Jan 2012 , 8:05pm

topstar74, every great investor has made many mistakes and WB (Warren Buffet) is no exception. He has written about several of them in his annual "letter to investors". The degree of how spectacular each mistake was varies and I think how much impression it makes on each investor will vary also. The letter is written to shareholders of his investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway, usually in February or March. He is very old now and whilst every pundit scribbles about "his" latest investment, they are in fact talking about Berkshire Hathaway (BH) which has for a few years now had several sector experts and lead investors so we can not be sure which are, in fact, results of Buffets initiation. The same must be said of BH's "mistakes".

ANuvver 21 Jan 2012 , 6:11am

Um, isn't there an old saw about profit warnings coming "not singly, but in battalions" or something...

RegDiversify 21 Jan 2012 , 10:25am

I hold both Tesco and Sainsburys in equal measure because to me they look the best punt in the retail sector. However, the profits warning from Tesco is a concern. Could there be a second and then a third? Just look what happened to HMV.

Fullerbull 21 Jan 2012 , 4:38pm

HilaryHames said: I dont know exactly what difference it makes but according to Investors Chronicle Buffet did a particular kind of deal...

This seems particularly pertinant. I am not sure what a Cash-settled Equity Swap is, but if it means that Buffet bought at around 320-330p and has an exercise price of around 350p in 3 years, then it is a typical no-lose Buffet situation. If the price rises above 350p he is quids in and if it languishes or even falls from its current value then he makes 20-30p per share (on millions of shares). He can't lose. Buffet is not renowned for short term (3 years time-scale) investing, but he IS renowned for making money. If he can make a guaranteed few million quid in 3 years, why wouldn't he? As usual, it doesn't pay to blindly follow even a master like Buffett - you need to know why he did it (but are unlikely ever to find out!). Having said that, I have to admit that I piled in with a spare few £Ks that were sitting in my ISA on the day of the initial drop, thereby missing the benefit of further falls over the subsequent days. However, I am happy to hold for several years and pocket the dividends, which seem to me unlikely to be cut given the cash-generating diversity of the beast. Of all the things that people are prepared to forego in a period of austerity, not-eating is not one of them! Eventually, the stock market will recover and Tesco's share price along with it.

RobinnBanks 21 Jan 2012 , 6:08pm

Empty shelves is one reason why Tesco has had to make a profit warning. I told them that several times over the past year and received the usual reassuring replies from their Customer Relations department, but no improvement: very little helps! About 20% of the popular best bargain items are out of stock somedays; and the much heralded ''Price Drops' are usually after the prices have been put up previously, which fools no one.
Aldi sells lots of the items Tesco runs out of, usually at a cheaper price, although Tesco is a more pleasant store in which to shop.
The percentage profit at Tesco and other food retailers is only about 5%, so although they have a large turnover they are not making anywhere near as much percentage profit as, say, the Financial sector, and they only pay a reasonable, not great, dividend, if that's what you want.
No doubt Warren will do alright with his shares in Tesco, but not brilliantly if their past performance is repeated. He likes retailers such as Walmart and Sears etc and it's always worth watching his purchases, but he once said that there is never only one cockroach in the kitchen. Maybe Buffett will be the inspiration to the Tesco management to look under their 'fridges!

goodlifer 21 Jan 2012 , 10:21pm

Floorlord

"He (Uncle Warren) is very old now."

He's only 70, and - to judge from Evan Davis's recent programme on the box - still pretty sharp.

At 84, perhaps I'm prejudiced, but surely investment is a game you can go on playing long after you're too decrepit to do anything useful?

RobinnBanks 21 Jan 2012 , 10:47pm

Warren was born in 1930, which makes him 82 this year, and I believe his business partner, Charlie Munger, is rather older.
Both are still very sharp and possess a vast knowledge of investing and commonsense market know-how that we can all learn from because they pass on their wisdom free of charge everytime they speak, and in their company reports.

krustallos 22 Jan 2012 , 1:29am

RegDiversify: "Just look what happened to HMV."

I think the difference is that people are not going to start purchasing food and other household items in digital format direct to their i-pods.

I bought a small pile of Tesco shares when the price dropped. Looked like an unjustified panic to me. Back to break-even point already and there's either a quick win or a long term dividend to be had so I'm pretty confident.

ANuvver 22 Jan 2012 , 4:41am

topstar74:

Buffett actually got it spectacularly wrong with a struggling textile company called Berkshire Hathaway. He admits the fact.

I reckon he kept the name as much as a daily reminder against hubris as anything else. His own personal scarlet letter, on some levels...

ANuvver 22 Jan 2012 , 5:24am

Floorlord:

Buffet's dip purchase will surely have put a support under Tesco's SP (much as his buyback pledge boosted his own BRK).

But I've seen it so often in punditland: A has happened and B has happened, they both fit the same story, ergo A has happened _because of_ B. That can then become a platform to build all sorts of Cs, Ds ... Ls and Ms.

You have to be suspicious of this kind of thinking - particularly in the fast-moving world of business journalism. You have to say something and quick. And preferably dramatic. Who's going to read/watch a piece that says: "sovs are down, cocoa is up and we haven't got a clue why - could be anything, really."

Of course, a causal story often gains enough traction to become self-fulfilling. Headline stories are often right on short-term sentiment, but wrong on long-term consequences.

PS re BRK - Nearly got down to my value level and then the bugger institutes a pseudo NAV guarantee! Clever man. Another classic Buffet win-win - I'll bet he hasn't had to actually buy back a single share.

These days, Buffet is far beyond finding value - he manufactures value. He also seems to be single-handedly pompomming the US banking industry. Clever man...

chrish1904 22 Jan 2012 , 6:15pm

I`ve already made my biggest ever purchase of an individual share in the last couple of days...in TESCO. I`m not convinced it will go back up to where it was quickly, but the 20% fall looks like panic and over-reaction to me.

Normally I buy to hold, and to be honest if the price stays low I won`t be too unhappy to hold for years.....however on this occasion I think that if the price went up to around 350 I might be tempted to take a 10% profit and wait for further opportunities later in the year....which was my original intention, and why I`d made the funds available.

TESCO remains a very solid company for me.

Chris

dubre 23 Jan 2012 , 8:37am

What would Tesco shares be priced at if WB sold or announced that he was going to sell? Only asking!

ronald12345 23 Jan 2012 , 8:50pm

RegDiversify - Note your comments but TSCO has been a long favorite
It was the first share I ever purchased in 1965 at 7/6p. Allowing for dividend growth with dividends reinvested over a period in excess of 45 years has seen the original investment multiply many times over . There is no comparison with HMV . When you next see margarine at TSCO with 20% -50% discount you will buy 2 packs -its the same with shares !

Chinanigel 01 Feb 2012 , 7:19am

Bought TSCO on the dip.
Just visited a Tesco Store in Shanghai to reassure myself, very impressive, clean and very fresh fruit and veg!
Briefly spoke to an English manager who happened to be there checking on operations, he is based in Shanghai. Told me that he regularly visits the competitors stores in Shanghai and he knew the Carrefour store where I shop.
Anyway I felt confident of my investment and intend to just leave it there.

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