Trawling For FTSE 250 Value

Published in Investing on 10 November 2011

The cheapest mid-caps based on earnings, dividends and assets.

Following on from last week's mechanical trawl of the FTSE100 for value, I'm repeating the exercise this week on the 250 index. Same idea exactly but on the market's mid caps.

As before, similar warnings apply about the potential errors of the database I use and that Price/Book (P/B) includes all assets and not just the value player's far more desirable, and more conservative, tangible asset version. My natural indolence precludes my working out P/TB so readers must do this for themselves with any share considered worthy of further investigation.

As usual, yields and P/Es are forecasts, while P/Bs are based on the last annual accounts, not updated for interims or news.

Note that a number of company P/Es in the database were shown as not available, presumably because the compilers lacked information on earnings forecasts. I have ignored these in my P/E table, which starts with those having a positive figure. Several shares in other tables, namely Daejan, Amlin, Catlin and 3i, did not have forecast P/Es.

Top Ten Yields

 Price (p)Forecast Yield (%)
C&W Communications (LSE: CWC)3711.9
Thomas Cook (LSE: TCG)4311.0
Home Retail (LSE: HOME)8610.9
C&W Worldwide (LSE: CW)308.9
Amlin (LSE: AML)2967.8
Intermediate Capital (LSE: ICP)2297.6
Catlin (LSE: CGL)3947.2
FirstGroup (LSE: FGP)3467.2
TUI Travel (LSE: TT)1607.0
Kesa (LSE: KESA)976.6

Ten Lowest P/E

 Price (p)Forecast P/E
Premier Foods (LSE: PFD)41.6
Thomas Cook432.6
Pace (LSE: PIC)633.3
Cookson (LSE: CKSN)4416.6
Logica (LSE: LOG)796.9
TUI Travel1606.9
C&W Worldwide307.1
Intermediate Capital2297.5
Dixons (LSE: DXNS)117.6
Northgate (LSE: NTG)2467.7

Ten Lowest P/B

 Price (p)P/B
Premier Foods40.10
Thomas Cook430.21
Home Retail860.26
Barratt Developments (LSE: BDEV)880.29
C&W Worldwide300.51
Daejan (LSE: DJAN)2,6800.54
3i (LSE: III)2020.58
Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (LSE: MLC)4010.60
Big Yellow (LSE: BYG)2670.63
Logica790.64

The search for triples here scores twice: telecom business Cable & Wireless Worldwide and holiday company Thomas Cook. Both are well-known bombed-out shares and C&WW is in my value portfolio, though only as a tiny holding, which having fallen dramatically makes it even tinier.

There are a number of double shows. Argos-owner Home Retail, for instance, is a yield and P/B play. I dislike Argos as a shop, though I don't let my personal feelings about a company's business get in the way of a good value play. In fact, Home would have been eleventh in the P/E table if I did the top eleven rather than the top ten, so pretty close to a triple.

Finance business Intermediate Capital and that other big holiday firm, TUI Travel, are yield and P/E listers, and both are also not far off the P/Bs either with ratios below 1.

Trashed share Premier Foods tops both the P/E and P/B rankings, and Logica is in both of these as well.

What of sectors? These tables often give useful clues about whole sectors that are currently disliked for some reason, as indicated by the ubiquity here of shares from them. So even if none of those present appeal, there may be others in the sector dragged down by poor sentiment that could in consequence possess value.

In fact, unreasonably poor sentiment is the reason for the creation of value in a share. Easy to say but not necessarily so easy to spot that crucial difference between unreasonable and deserved. You won't get it right every time.

One clearly beaten-up sector is holiday companies. It's not a big grouping with Cook and TUI as the only sizeable listed businesses in this field and both are represented strongly here as I mention above.

One interesting point about TUI is that a majority of the shares are held by its German parent. Some commentators have suggested that there could in time be a bid from the parent for the minority float, but I would advise against buying TUI with that as the principal reason. Judge it on the usual value merits and ignore bid hopes.

Other than that, there are no really strong sector themes here, unlike last week's FTSE100 job where miners dominated the P/E list with six out of ten. But a lot of the explanation for lower sector representation here is that the 250 has a much greater variety of businesses in it and therefore a lot less sector concentration than the 100 index.

There's a vague property connection in the P/Bs, with house builder Barratt, real-estate share Daejan, hotel operator Millennium and Copthorne and storage business Big Yellow Group. Different businesses but all having a property element, which the market would take into account in their valuations. Property-based shares would be expected to make a showing in an asset table such as this.

Also there's a slight retail theme with Dixons, Home Retail and Kesa all figuring. Dixons and Kesa are close competitors and the latter has just announced that it is given away for nothing its UK arm, the Comet electrical store chain, which leaves it with just its European outlets.

As always with value, watch the debt situation. Net cash is the ideal but if you do accept some net debt, make sure it is acceptably low.

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Comments

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pickepics 11 Nov 2011 , 2:05pm

A worthwhile exercise, Stephen, many thanks. Of the three sectors it has (albeit faintly) highlighted I think the market has good reason to give property and holiday travel the cold shoulder for the time being. Unless you expect an imminent break up of the euro, that is. In which case the new DMark will go through the roof and Germans will be able to afford to go anywhere even though their industrial output will be too expensive to export. But buy the German, not the British, travel companies to take advantage of that.

Retail, on the other hand, should be worth a trawl through the small caps. One of them at least, surely, has a good offering for financially distressed times?

LastChip 11 Nov 2011 , 7:12pm

Personally (for what it's worth), I don't think you're wrong about C&WW.

I thought they were good value when I bought at sub 50p (wrong!) and I believe they are even better value when I averaged down (shock horror) at below 30p.

This evening, I'm sitting on a small profit on the second tranche, or looking at it another way, have decreased my overall cost per share.

Many will disagree with that strategy and so-be-it. But I fail to understand the difference between averaging down and drip feeding. The later seems to be acceptable on the Fool, while the former is frowned upon.

Anyway, it seems to me C&WW is now starting an up trend and providing nothing seriuosly disturbs that, it should recover in the medium term. I also haven't ruled out the possibility of a bid, as C&WW have some very juicy capacity on their networks.

Data transfer will undoubtedly increase significantly over the next decade and C&WW have at least some capacity to fulfil that requirement.

Furthermore, if the dividend is maintained, where can one earn 8.9% on a relatively safe bet?

In spite of the doomsters, I can't really see much downside and I think the market is finally waking up to this.

Perhaps I'm a fool, but sometimes one needs courage and conviction. Time will tell.

snoekie 11 Nov 2011 , 7:47pm

Thankfully I do not hold any of these shares, although I had a fleeting temptation months ago to buy C & W, I forget which, but seeing how it has been broken up, something I will steer clear off.

I have rather been investing in an up and coming former great name who were for years going down the plughole (ongoing losses), until a new management took over in 2005. Finally they appear to be in profit, but the price is still incredibly cheap.

It is not in your list, but then although previously on the Fools radar, has disappeared. I expect to see them getting a decent punt in the second quarter next year.

I find none of the shares in the lists the least bit tempting, and reckon they have a way to fall given the debt plague laying low a number eurozone countries, with a few demises in the next year or so.

I still have eyes for another few tiddlers, and also waiting for better drops in the prices of a few well known companies.

Patience is a virtue............

blackshares 13 Nov 2011 , 4:02pm

I've still got C&W from when they were over £10 a share. I don't know why I still keep them, 'cos I can't see me getting my money back!

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