A Blue-Chip Starter Portfolio

Published in Investing on 4 October 2011

How do the UK's ten industry giants shape up as a starter portfolio?

Here at The Motley Fool, we've long extolled the virtues of low-cost index trackers as a one-stop shop for equity investment. Tracker funds simply replicate an index, such as the FTSE 100 or FTSE All-Share.

However, index tracking isn't everyone's cup of tea. Some people prefer to invest directly in the shares of individual companies.

Shares vs trackers

One reason some investors prefer shares is because of the industry imbalances within the FTSE indices. Some industries are more heavily represented than others.

At the broadest level, there are ten industry sectors in the official classification. The table below shows the proportion of these industries within the FTSE 100 (and, thus, a FTSE 100 tracker).

IndustryProportion
(%)
Financials20
Oil & Gas20
Basic Materials15
Consumer Goods13
Consumer Services8
Health Care8
Telecommunications7
Industrials5
Utilities4
Technology1

As you can see, the imbalances are quite substantial. Financials, for example, represent one tenth of the ten industries, but make up a fifth of the index. At the other end of the scale, Technology also represents one tenth of the industries, but makes up just one hundredth of the index.

Financials, Oil & Gas, Basic Materials (mainly mining) and Consumer Goods are all 'overweight', while the other six sectors are all 'underweight'.

Investors in trackers have to live with the sector skews of the index. Investors in individual companies are of course free to choose the industries they invest in and the weight they give them.

Some investors argue that, because we can't know how the different sectors will perform in the future, 'equal weighting' between industries is the most logical approach.

A starter portfolio

From time to time, I take a look at the largest FTSE 100 companies in each of the ten industries to see how they shape up as a potential 'starter' portfolio.

The table below shows the ten industry heavyweights and their valuations based on forecast twelve-month price/earnings (P/E) ratios and dividend yields.

 IndustryShare price
(p)
P/EYield
(%)
HSBC (LSE: HSBA)Financials4817.35.9
Royal Dutch Shell (LSE: RDSB)Oil & Gas1,9336.85.6
BHP Billiton (LSE: BLT)Basic Materials1,6695.84.2
Brit Am Tobacco (LSE: BATS)Consumer Goods2,70612.95.1
Tesco (LSE: TSCO)Consumer Services37810.04.3
GlaxoSmithKline (LSE: GSK)Health Care1,31511.05.4
Vodafone (LSE: VOD)Telecommunications16710.17.2
Rolls-Royce (LSE: RR)Industrials57912.03.2
National Grid (LSE: NG)Utilities63212.26.3
ARM (LSE: ARM)Technology53040.60.7

These are all huge companies. Even the smallest -- microchip designer ARM -- is capitalised at more than £7bn.

As a value investor, I baulk at ARM's lofty P/E and low dividend yield. But the companies in the other nine sectors look attractively valued against their average historical ratings.

The nine companies have an average P/E of 9.8, while the average yield is 5.2%. My rule of thumb for this group of industry giants is that an average P/E below 10 and a yield above 5% puts them firmly in 'good value' territory.

Opportunity knocks

Valuation is all-important in successful investing. Building a diversified portfolio is not about collecting companies and sectors as if they were stamps, or about being overly obsessed with equal weighting.

Nevertheless, it seems to me that the market is currently offering a good opportunity to buy a blue-chip bedrock of industry heavyweights for investors who are looking to embark on building a diversified portfolio of UK equities.

Do you think this group of companies shapes up as a starter portfolio? Let me know your views, for or against, in the comments box below!

More from G A Chester:

> The Motley Fool owns shares in GlaxoSmithKline and Tesco.

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Comments

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Tortoise1000 04 Oct 2011 , 8:47pm

I think as a 'starter' it would be terrific. Interesting way to look at it, diversified, sensible sort of companies. It would appeal to me. I dont know about ARM, it 's interesting how your selection throws up that 'wildcard'. Maybe If I really were starting out with a tiny core holding, to get a feel for things, I might buy equal amount of all of them, just for the elegance of it. Say £1k of each, I mean that ordinary beginners sort of scale (1 year's ISA money). I dont know enough about the finances and prospects of ARM to know how they justfy the price for any larger investment.

Isquirrel2 04 Oct 2011 , 9:00pm

Every week I put a bit more in to my FTSE 100 Tracker.
Every week the market seems to go down.

Yes I buy more for my money but why don't I wait for the markets to drop more?
How low could it go, 4000, 3000 lower?

You have to be brave or some may say stupid to keep investing?

Will it the FSTE ever get back to 6000?????!!!!!!!

F958B 04 Oct 2011 , 9:40pm

Isquirrel2

Have faith. Keep buying steadily, at suitable intervals.

There's a good chance that FTSE is skidding along the bottom right now.

The portfolio listed in the article above looks pretty solid, although, like the author; I fret about over-paying for ARM's pricey shares.

mcecaro 05 Oct 2011 , 9:35am

How do you get to 7.2% yield on Vodafone???? Is it not 10p per share?

DIYIncome 05 Oct 2011 , 9:42am

Buy for income - then you have something to show during the downturns!
Apart from ARM & RR, good-ish income portfolio if you add some fixed-interest.

MunroMan 05 Oct 2011 , 11:01am

Graham, why aren't trackers everyone's cup of tea?

BarrenFluffit 05 Oct 2011 , 11:11am

One problem with this approach is that the sectors are broad and individual companies within it can be quite different. In theory you should buy extra company's according to the risk reduction they add and thus hold wildly different companies. However there are quite a lot of practical problems with this approach. But using sectors is also a rather blunt approach. Weighting can be done by any factor; P/E, Dividends even absolute share price!

Tortoise1000 05 Oct 2011 , 12:13pm

@ mcecaro

What do you mean about the Vodafone yield? It is 7.1% today if you look it up on TMF (2012 11.78p,168.60p as I write).

The way I calculate dividends for myself is by tax year. This tax year we have had 6.05p plus another 4 p extra promised in February, with the normal Feb dividend to come which last year was 2.85p. Total 12.9p, 7.7%.

How are you working it out?

T

F958B 05 Oct 2011 , 12:29pm

mcecaro

We buy shares for what the dividend is likely to be next year, not for what has already been paid.
Vodafone paid 8.9p in the last year.

The future is awkward to judge because their Verizon joint-venture will pay a generous dividend soon and it will be passed on to Vodafone shareholders in addition to the regular dividend.
However, there has been recent mention that Verizon is not guaranteeing that Vodafone will receive a dividend from the joint venture every year, so it becomes more awkward to estimate what shareholders will get in the future.
Regardless of Verizon joint venture payouts, Vodafone should be able to pay at least the same amount as last year and probably slightly raise it.

I would work on the assumption of the last-year dividend of 8.9p, plus an upward adjustment for inflation (say about 6%). Anything more from other sources is a welcome bonus.
That would put the underlying dividend at roughly:

2011: 9.4p
2012: 10.0p
2013: 10.6p

piecan 05 Oct 2011 , 12:41pm


If you don't want the hassle of maintaining a portfolio of individual shares and then worrying about when to buy and sell, and don't want the skewed
weighting of a FTSE 100 tracker then just buy a FTSE All Share tracker.
Then add an All Stocks Gilt tracker and you have a nice little portfolio with income and a lot less worry. A spot of re-balancing, occasionally, is all the maintenance needed. Lovely jubbly.

piecan 05 Oct 2011 , 12:43pm

Can anyone tell me why the above has separated into three blocks. It's happened before, even though it was fine when I pressed the "post" button.

richjfool 05 Oct 2011 , 1:02pm

There are certainly some nice yields there with the recent SP falls. I hold 5 of them directly, and 3 more through IT's.

pickepics 05 Oct 2011 , 1:33pm

ARM is a 100 member because of its market capitalisation. If you are to invest across all sectors, that is one of the very few larger UK quoted technology companies and the only one that makes the FTSE 100. A tracker would therefore include it. For value investors, many would baulk at its yield. But it is a growth stock. Now accepted as a preferred supplier by several of the world's top technology hardware manufacturers worldwide it really does have a superb chance of significant further growth. Its yield is likely to be forever stunted by the company's constant need for new product R&D spending.

My comments on the ready made portfolio are restricted to the fact that it would be a good starter portfolio but individual investors may wish to examine the options in some of the more heavily populated sectors. For instance, I would be more likely to go for Astrazeneca than GSM, BP than Shell. There really is so little to choose between either of the pairs, or more correctly such a strong case could be made for either part of them, it's just about down to personal preference. I'd be spoilt for choice in the industrials but I don't think I'd be going for RR right now.

Len38, it's a function of this board's text editor playing up a little. It happens often with such editors, almost randomly it would seem. The paragraphs as you saw them were split at the line breaks you saw when typing as well as at the default character breaks. The editor insertions (the ones you type) should have their breaks overwritten to that of the displayed page layout but that bit failed. Hope that makes sense.

Isquirrel2 05 Oct 2011 , 1:49pm

Len38 or other fools
Please can you tell me in simple terms;
What an All Stocks Gilt tracker is?
Are the fees low?
Where can you buy them?
Cheers
Thank you

piecan 05 Oct 2011 , 1:50pm

Floorlord
My limited brain function hasn't a clue what you're talking about, but thanks for your reply. I'm content to know it wasn't my fault. According to my daughter it usually is!

pickepics 05 Oct 2011 , 1:57pm

Len38, the comment you just made printed correctly. So the lines ended where they should have done, i.e. at the end of the word closest to the number of characters in total (all the words, numbers and spaces) which the presentation screen defaults at. It threw some extra line breaks into your earlier contribution to the thread. So some lines appeared shorter than they should have done.

piecan 05 Oct 2011 , 2:02pm

Floorland
Thanks again!

piecan 05 Oct 2011 , 2:10pm

Isquirrel2

ETF - iShares FTSE UK All Stocks Gilt Tracker (IGLT). TER 0.20%.

Fund - L & G All Stocks Gilt Index Trust. TER 0.25%.

There are others but these are popular, and as the names imply they simply track the all gilt index. They can be purchased through your usual broker and can be held in a SIPP or ISA.

Cheers
Len

GoldenSoldier 05 Oct 2011 , 2:13pm

It looks very sensible to me as a starter portfolio with an equal 10% in each. I think it might then be a good idea to diversify a bit against company specific risk rather than industry specific risk. Thus I would consider moving towards 5% each in GSK & AZN, VOD & BT, RDSB & BP.

DrFfybes 05 Oct 2011 , 2:30pm

The first table is interesting - does it add up to 101% to take into account a management fee ;-)

ANuvver 05 Oct 2011 , 2:38pm

Not a bad time to be a starter at all.

Personally, I'd steer away from financials at the moment. I also think ARM's price is a bit bloated and Billiton will be cheaper.

Absent these and you have a very blunt low-beta pseudo-FTSE tracker ex-fin, tech and miners.

Where there is a viable choice among the blue chips, I'd suggest holding sector pairs - eg GSK/AZN, BATS/IMT - subject to good entry points, of course, rather than picking one of each. Perhaps the best beginner tactic is to pick one and watchlist its competitors for a while.

If we are to see a near-term rally, the forthcoming earnings round will be crucial for steadying market nerves.

forsunnydays 05 Oct 2011 , 2:57pm

This helps confirm that a novice like me is on the right track. And, I agree with the comments regarding ARM. Way too pricy for me.

However, I think there is another sector which needs consideration: support services. I like firms such as Carillion and Compass Group. Again, good solid companies with decent balance sheets, growth prospects, and dividends. I especially think growth will come with all the trimming by governments and firms, which will lead to the necessity to outsource.

Would be nice to hear your views' fellow Fools.

Prof103 05 Oct 2011 , 3:19pm

90% of a cracking portfiolio there but drop ARM for reasons already aired.

So what instead:-

First choice: Pearson

Second choice: Carnival

Third choice: Weir or IMI.

The third choice Weir or IMI can be volatile but current volatility is favouring buyers.

I hold all shares mentioned.

P103

johandesilva 05 Oct 2011 , 3:28pm

No RSA at over 8%? I say do the oppossite. If your young anyone building a portfolio just go out all out assault on AIM stocks for 2 years as well as Bank! start with VRP, ANR, WTI, FML, STAF, BP, GAL, PAF etc... all potential 10 times mutibaggers.

all potential 10 times muti-baggers. Obviously 50% may fail and you may lose 50% value by this time next week, but your still going to earn more over 1-5 years.

Isquirrel2 05 Oct 2011 , 5:00pm

Len38
Thank you very much.
I will look into them.
Isquirrel2

ANuvver 05 Oct 2011 , 8:30pm

Johan:

I appreciate the point that a younger investor should perhaps play more balls-out and aggressive. However, dealing with riskier growth stocks asks a lot of you psychologically, at any age. It might be better to learn investment discipline, risk management, valuation techniques and develop a "feel" for the macro environment and newsflow by swimming in the pool, not the sea. Not to mention the dilemma of when to get in and out of the water.

Being in equities at all at the moment is risky enough. I'd say that just taking on the reasonable challenge of beating the return on a retail savings account hollow is a good start, and IMO perfectly achievable these days. You can always go and tickle sharks later, if you wish. There'll be another time.

Thegibb1 06 Oct 2011 , 9:05am

This is an interesting idea and quite similar to my strategy (i am a novice investor with a limited understanding of financial markets, economics, and financial products etc). Having invested in funds and trackers (and had an unpleasant commodity spreadbetting experience), i decided to start investing in specific equities. The only problem with this idea is that you do need a certain amount of money to invest to make it make sense from a cost perspective. I would say minimum £1000 per trade, otherwise you are looking at a cost (including stamp duty) of over 1.5% per purchase.

As a new investor i am naturally drawn to the blue chips. However where my startegy differs slightly from that suggested, is that i like the idea of investing in the bigger companies that have experienced recent or are facing problems, difficulties etc (in a similar strategy to the M&G recovery fund run by Tom Dobell). Whilst i accept this may be a slightly higher risk strategy, i also believe it offers higher rewards and as a young investor i have time on my side and no doubt this strategy will change over time.

As a few examples i hold BP (Macondo blow out) instead of Shell, Astrazeneca (generic patent cliff issues) instead of GSK, RBS and Lloyds (no need to specify the problems these companies face) instead of HSBC. I also hold Aviva, Tesco plus a couple of non blue chips Cookson Group and Dignity (my favourite share, but probably the only non-value investment in the portfolio).

It may appear that i am not particularly well diversified, but this is because i only started investing in April and am investing the same amount each month in one share (other than RBS / Lloyds where i split my monthly investment as i could not decide which was the better/worse share). Thus i am effectively dollar cost averaging which has proved beneficial in this falling market. However i do not intend to hold more than 15 shares and once i hold this many i will start to weight the portfolio a little more by topping up on the companies that i prefer and are reasonable priced.

I'd be interested to know what more experienced investors like yourselves think of my strategy? Also is it bad form to go into such depth about your holdings? If so i apologise.

Thanks

ProfessorMarcus 06 Oct 2011 , 10:22am

Hello Thegibb1.

I invest in chunks of £300ish using a Halifax Sharebuilder account or the regular investment mechanism at Selftrade.

You are restricted to certain dates each month but I'm not really too concerned about that.

Costs are about 1%.

bazzab58 06 Oct 2011 , 5:27pm

I have most of these shares in my portfolio and they have performed well even in the current environment (total returns including dividends). I exclude BAT (a nod to ethical investing), prefer Rio Tinto to BHP billiton and exclude ARM for the same reason as the author. I agree that a careful selection of say 10-20 FTSE 100 shares can beat the index - BUT, you can also come a cropper, if like me, at some time you were heavily into BANKS! - and who has a crystal ball to predict the next disaster area?

500tg3l 07 Oct 2011 , 8:31pm

Can one buy an ETF FTSE 100 tracker in certificated form?

Wuffle 09 Oct 2011 , 4:14pm

I've tinkered with this kind of thing lately as a newish investor and have some thoughts.
A starter portfolio is more about learning what's going on.
If you go for the mega caps you seem to broadly track the index anyway due to weighting. The difference between this and a tracker at this stage is probably no more than a friday night out. This makes it all less scary.
As a starter portfolio, you can skew it a bit with a couple of months savings. A new purchase or pound cost average your worst buy.
I find myself using certain filling stations and buying lucozade not coke. This adds to the interest.
As the lump gets bigger your investment decisions matter more, as you can't just earn yourself out of a hole. By this stage you should have an idea whats going on. This may stop you being stiffed by the industry.

goodlifer 09 Oct 2011 , 11:59pm

Hi Thegibb1,

I was very interested in what you had to say, because I've got rather similar problems
I've just opened a joint portfolio with my son - the money mainly his, the management mainly mine, at least for the time being. Obviously he's got much more interesting and important things to worry about, just as I had when I was his age.

"You need money to make money."
Only too true.

My minimum normal trade - and my normal trade is a buy - is £1500.
On the other hand, my broker, TD Waterhouse, - in whom I hold no shares! - operates a regular investment account. Pay in a minimum of £25 per month, and you can buy as much as you like for £1.50 per issue on one specific Wednesday each month; I use this to reinvest my dividends, plus any loose change that may be hanging about..

Anyway, our plan is to try to build up a reasonably balanced portfolio by reinvesting the dividends and adding to it from time to time whenever funds are available. My policy - at present - is slightly different from yours.
I just look for blue chips available at about twelve times earnings or less, with prospective yields of 3-3.5% or more.
And I don't care to own a bit of a company I wouldn't be happy for me, or one of my family. to work for.
.
How many holdings makes a reasonable diversification?
My answer: about ten to - my personal preference - about thirty.

Don't be too casual about being able to afford mistakes just because you're young - obviously we all make mistakes, and it's true the young do have more time to recover.
But just think what anything you get right now will be worth in fifty years or so!

Anyway, we started, a couple of months ago. with RDSB amd SHRS.
My son's a medical researcher, and doesn't think much of GSK or AZN.
September's dividend payment - our first - went into ULVR,

And what of October's divvies?
Maybe BARC. DGE, BLND or BP - spoilt for choice!

"Bad form to go into such depths?"
For my money, the deeper you go the better.

traineatsleep 13 Oct 2011 , 7:05pm

Hey,

Amazing board, I've been reading for a while now. This is frankly, the ONLY place I ffeel I can ask so I hope this isn't too annoying for you all - In short I've been looking at investing in a portfolio (Start with stocks n shares isa up to 10k i think) but have no idea where to start or how. This kind of post is EXACTLY what I need so thank you - I've been reviewing various funds and trackers with a couple of providers, however I'm interested in npicking a couple of funds (for diversification) and also a couple of private 'shares' that I'd hold for many many years but would be risky now (say lloyds for example)

At the end of the day, I'm looking at keeping it in there for 5-10 years ideally. However, the bottom line is the market is going down everywhere all the time. Why are people still investing money on say a monthly basis? I understand that you're buying with the view that profits would be garnered in however many years, but what do you actaully gain by buying now? Why not just wait until it's an obviously safer economy first? I guess I'm missing the point lol..

Sorry for any ignorance or misinformation provided on my part, I'm trying! Basically, any good information for investing my 10k would be amazingly welcomed! Thank you

Vikingdon1 31 Oct 2011 , 2:53pm

Traineatsleep

Buy continuing to buy when the market falls you are reducing the cost average of the shares you are buying assuming you continue to buy the same shares.

This results in a greater return when the prices rise as you have increased the number of shares you hold for an average lower unit cost.

Vikingdon1 31 Oct 2011 , 2:54pm

Sorry about thr typo I meant "By" not "Buy"

vinchainsaw 03 Nov 2011 , 1:41pm

traineatsleep,

Guys are buying now because by the time you think its safe to invest you'll have missed the boat.

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